N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 1 Read the January 6 weekly Federal Reserve H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve
Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal
Reserve Banks. It begins with an announcement of an accounting change,
effective January 1, 2011. The change affects the reporting of each Federal
Reserve Bank’s capital account and their distributions of residual
earnings to the US Treasury.
In the past, when Federal Reserve Banks owed residual earnings to the
Treasury, it was recorded as a reduction of the Banks’ capital. Apparently
that will no longer be done. Instead the amounts owed to the Treasury will
be posted in liability accounts. The explanation is almost impossible to
understand.
However, one analyst at Bank of America thinks that this means that any
future losses by Federal Reserve Banks will no longer be recorded as
lowering capital accounts. Instead, any daily losses that might occur will
end up being booked as either negative liabilities or maybe even as assets.
By this route, it will never be possible for the Federal Reserve’s
financial accounts to show that it has become insolvent. Of course, if the
Fed can claim that it is financially sound, that would reduce investor fears
of the safety and strength of the US dollar, thereby reducing demand for
gold and silver as safe haven alternatives. | C*G
发帖数: 7495 | 2 汇神不但货币金银功夫了得，而且英文写作也不是盖的！pfpf。
hiahia | N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 3 Forgot to add (zt) to the title. hoho. | g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 4 Phenix is an Austrian High Hand!
We froggies have learned a lot from you.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: Forgot to add (zt) to the title. hoho.
| k*******n
发帖数: 8891 | 5 奥地利的？你咋知道的？
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: Phenix is an Austrian High Hand!
: We froggies have learned a lot from you.
| N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 6 Co-learn, co-learn.
I only re-posted good articles from other online DaNius.
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: Phenix is an Austrian High Hand!
: We froggies have learned a lot from you.
| j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 7 不懂，大牛再详谈一下
“owed residual earnings”指的是什么, 又怎么进入成了negative liability
account
Current account =Exports of goods and services - Import + Foreign investment
net interest + current transfers
Capital account = Foreign Investment in US - US investment abroad
Current account + Capital account + official settlement account = 0
Federal
Apparently
will
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: Read the January 6 weekly Federal Reserve H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve
: Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal
: Reserve Banks. It begins with an announcement of an accounting change,
: effective January 1, 2011. The change affects the reporting of each Federal
: Reserve Bank’s capital account and their distributions of residual
: earnings to the US Treasury.
: In the past, when Federal Reserve Banks owed residual earnings to the
: Treasury, it was recorded as a reduction of the Banks’ capital. Apparently
: that will no longer be done. Instead the amounts owed to the Treasury will
: be posted in liability accounts. The explanation is almost impossible to
| N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 8
Imagine I'm Fed and bought a load of toxic junk from, say, FNM/FRE that
is worth only 40 cents on a dollar. My balance sheet would look ugly if
I count them in. I'd be insolvent if I carry too much of them.
So what should Fed do? BAC analyst thinks Fed is cheating (like what BAC
is doing now): They are trying to put these toxic assets in a separate
group and discount them from their book. That way Fed could keep buying
such toxic junk and yet would never be insolvent on paper.
【在 j*****h 的大作中提到】
: 不懂，大牛再详谈一下
: “owed residual earnings”指的是什么, 又怎么进入成了negative liability
: account
: Current account =Exports of goods and services - Import + Foreign investment
: net interest + current transfers
: Capital account = Foreign Investment in US - US investment abroad
: Current account + Capital account + official settlement account = 0
:
: Federal
: Apparently
| j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 9 没有见过federal reserve bank 的accounting book, 不知道怎么做的， 还是不想公开
查了一下， 理论上假设Day 1, federal reserve有$100 cash, 然后买了$100 FRE
bond, 假设dollar for dollar, 没有bad debt allowance, bond interest rate 5%,
一年后，得利$5， 这个earning 要上交treasury, capital account asset 没有变
如果在这一年中interest rate 上升，那原先买的bond value 要下降，但因为bond 是
hold to maturity, 不需要mark to market, 所以capital account asset 不变，还是
$100 bond, 年底的$5 利息收入还是作为earning 上交给treasury
如果FRE 有坏账，only worth 40 cents on a dollar, 当年write down, 那当年的
earning 是
-$60+5= -$55， 正常情况下，capital asset account 应该变成$100-55 = $45 ？(不
用上交earning 给treasury), 或者$100-60 = $40 (仍然上交了$5 给 treasury?)
新规则的做法是capital asset account 仍是$100， 但把liability account 记$60？
但这也是positive liability啊？ 怎么就变成了negative liability.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Imagine I'm Fed and bought a load of toxic junk from, say, FNM/FRE that
: is worth only 40 cents on a dollar. My balance sheet would look ugly if
: I count them in. I'd be insolvent if I carry too much of them.
: So what should Fed do? BAC analyst thinks Fed is cheating (like what BAC
: is doing now): They are trying to put these toxic assets in a separate
: group and discount them from their book. That way Fed could keep buying
: such toxic junk and yet would never be insolvent on paper.
| g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 10 I think the key is how to interpret "liability.'
My take is that the word means liability of FED to Treasury Dept. If FED
makes a profit, the profit is supposed to go to Treasury. Under the new
arrangement, FED no longer surrenders the profit, rather, in effect issues
an IOU to Treasury. The fund stays at FED in a 'reserve' or 'account payable
'.The profit accrued can be used to cancel any future losses.
公开
,
【在 j*****h 的大作中提到】
: 没有见过federal reserve bank 的accounting book, 不知道怎么做的， 还是不想公开
: 查了一下， 理论上假设Day 1, federal reserve有$100 cash, 然后买了$100 FRE
: bond, 假设dollar for dollar, 没有bad debt allowance, bond interest rate 5%,
: 一年后，得利$5， 这个earning 要上交treasury, capital account asset 没有变
: 如果在这一年中interest rate 上升，那原先买的bond value 要下降，但因为bond 是
: hold to maturity, 不需要mark to market, 所以capital account asset 不变，还是
: $100 bond, 年底的$5 利息收入还是作为earning 上交给treasury
: 如果FRE 有坏账，only worth 40 cents on a dollar, 当年write down, 那当年的
: earning 是
: -$60+5= -$55， 正常情况下，capital asset account 应该变成$100-55 = $45 ？(不
| N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 11 A better explanation here:
http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/41198789
Accounting Tweak Could Save Fed From Losses
Reuters | January 21, 2011 | 04:58 PM EST
Concerns that the Federal Reserve could suffer losses on its massive bond
holdings may have driven the central bank to adopt a little-noticed
accounting change with huge implications: it makes insolvency much less
likely.
The significant shift was tucked quietly into the Fed's weekly report on its
balance sheet and phrased in such technical terms that it was not even
reported by financial media when originally announced on Jan. 6.
But the new rules have slowly begun to catch the attention of market
analysts. Many are at once surprised that the Fed can set its own guidelines
, and also relieved that the remote but dangerous possibility that the world
's most powerful central bank might need to ask the U.S. Treasury or its
member banks for money is now more likely to be averted.
"Could the Fed go broke? The answer to this question was 'Yes,' but is now '
No,'" said Raymond Stone, managing director at Stone & McCarthy in Princeton
, New Jersey. "An accounting methodology change at the central bank will
allow the Fed to incur losses, even substantial losses, without eroding its
capital."
The change essentially allows the Fed to denote losses by the various
regional reserve banks that make up the Fed system as a liability to the
Treasury rather than a hit to its capital. It would then simply direct
future profits from Fed operations toward that liability.
This enhances transparency by providing clearer, more frequent, snapshots of
the central bank's finances, analysts say. The bonus: the number can now
turn negative without affecting the central bank's underlying financial
condition.
"Any future losses the Fed may incur will now show up as a negative
liability as opposed to a reduction in Fed capital, thereby making a
negative capital situation technically impossible," said Brian Smedley, a
rates strategist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch and a former New York Fed
staffer.
"The timing of the change is not coincidental, as politicians and market
participants alike have expressed concerns since the announcement (of a
second round of asset buys) about the possibility of Fed 'insolvency' in a
scenario where interest rates rise significantly," Smedley and his colleague
Priya Misra wrote in a research note. | j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 12 谢谢酒大牛
再考虑到FED 和treasury是左右手关系，all make sense now
亏得时候，账本这样写，就成了treasury会给补贴，成了negative liability
实际上就是positive account receivable, 但要是赤果果放在asset里，实在有点太太
太过份了
payable
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: I think the key is how to interpret "liability.'
: My take is that the word means liability of FED to Treasury Dept. If FED
: makes a profit, the profit is supposed to go to Treasury. Under the new
: arrangement, FED no longer surrenders the profit, rather, in effect issues
: an IOU to Treasury. The fund stays at FED in a 'reserve' or 'account payable
: '.The profit accrued can be used to cancel any future losses.
:
: 公开
: ,
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 13 今天买金了吗？
Federal
Apparently
will
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: Read the January 6 weekly Federal Reserve H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve
: Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal
: Reserve Banks. It begins with an announcement of an accounting change,
: effective January 1, 2011. The change affects the reporting of each Federal
: Reserve Bank’s capital account and their distributions of residual
: earnings to the US Treasury.
: In the past, when Federal Reserve Banks owed residual earnings to the
: Treasury, it was recorded as a reduction of the Banks’ capital. Apparently
: that will no longer be done. Instead the amounts owed to the Treasury will
: be posted in liability accounts. The explanation is almost impossible to
| N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 14
Looks like PET wants to put this whole January in toilet. Beijing PUT is
missing in action meanwhile, maybe b/c it's Spring Festival break? Not
sure. We have to take on PET w/o Beijing PUT helping us for a while.
Use this chart below as Fibonacci price target:
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 今天买金了吗？
:
: Federal
: Apparently
: will
|
|
