t*******o
发帖数: 1464 | | s*******e
发帖数: 432 | 2 they forget how the decrease in treasury price have effect on US housing
market. Increasing rates will most likely trigger a new flow of foreclosures. | e*n
发帖数: 1511 | 3 这段比较核心：人民币升值的结果是，人民银行会是最大的loser，但是人民会受益。
That is, however, not the end of the story. There is a significant transfer
within China of wealth, which will create clear winners and losers.
Basically any economic entity that is explicitly or implicitly long dollars
(by which I mean any foreign currency not pegged to the RMB) and short RMB,
will lose in a revaluation. Conversely, any entity that is explicitly or
implicitly long RMB, and short dollars, will win. In my earlier entry I
pointed out that t
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】
: very long
: 作者是中国通。p大管理学院的应该听说过这个人
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/194118-global-implications-of-an-rmb-revaluation
| t*******o
发帖数: 1464 | 4 人民会受益还要看老百姓是拿钱去填房子的无底洞，还是全面将消费扩大在衣食行，要
是后者的话，这两年的货币增量就直接和通货膨胀搭上了（窃以为，天朝猛发货币但是
物价尚未狂飙，房地产的booming可是个缓冲器）
transfer
dollars
,
short
【在 e*n 的大作中提到】
: 这段比较核心：人民币升值的结果是，人民银行会是最大的loser，但是人民会受益。
: That is, however, not the end of the story. There is a significant transfer
: within China of wealth, which will create clear winners and losers.
: Basically any economic entity that is explicitly or implicitly long dollars
: (by which I mean any foreign currency not pegged to the RMB) and short RMB,
: will lose in a revaluation. Conversely, any entity that is explicitly or
: implicitly long RMB, and short dollars, will win. In my earlier entry I
: pointed out that t
| t*******o
发帖数: 1464 | 5 最直接的loser就是那些出口型的产业了。
transfer
dollars
,
short
【在 e*n 的大作中提到】
: 这段比较核心：人民币升值的结果是，人民银行会是最大的loser，但是人民会受益。
: That is, however, not the end of the story. There is a significant transfer
: within China of wealth, which will create clear winners and losers.
: Basically any economic entity that is explicitly or implicitly long dollars
: (by which I mean any foreign currency not pegged to the RMB) and short RMB,
: will lose in a revaluation. Conversely, any entity that is explicitly or
: implicitly long RMB, and short dollars, will win. In my earlier entry I
: pointed out that t
| e*n
发帖数: 1511 | 6 购买力上升应该跟进口货物有关，但是跟房价应该是关系不大。
但是中国进口的东西很少给普通百姓消费。
中国倒是进口石油，但是石油是垄断的，人民币升值，用美元结算的石油便宜，但是我
怀疑利润最后还是要归国家，因为中石化中石油都是国家的。
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】
: 人民会受益还要看老百姓是拿钱去填房子的无底洞，还是全面将消费扩大在衣食行，要
: 是后者的话，这两年的货币增量就直接和通货膨胀搭上了（窃以为，天朝猛发货币但是
: 物价尚未狂飙，房地产的booming可是个缓冲器）
:
: transfer
: dollars
: ,
: short
| s*******e
发帖数: 432 | 7 they forget how the decrease in treasury price have effect on US housing
market. Increasing rates will most likely trigger a new flow of foreclosures. |
|
