l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 1 为什么宣布提高discount rate之后，2YR bill的yield一下子涨了这么多，从0.85到了
0.96?
谢谢。 |
c**********e
发帖数: 2007 | 2 You really do not understand? Even I understand.
discount rate from 0.50 to 0.75. |
w****l
发帖数: 6122 | 3 sell the short term treasury and give money back to fed.
i guess
or the explaination is the yield spread b/w fed rates and note rates is not
attractive for big guys. |
l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 4 When Fed pay higher interest rate on the money those central banks borrowed,
that means, in my view, the cheap dollar in the market would be less. Then
dollar would appreciate (that is what we see tonight), sending the yield
lower.
So why the opposite?
【在 c**********e 的大作中提到】
: You really do not understand? Even I understand.
: discount rate from 0.50 to 0.75.
|
l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 5 The reasonable explanation I guess is that the expectation that Fed will
raise interest rate in 3-6 months jumped.
borrowed,
Then
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: When Fed pay higher interest rate on the money those central banks borrowed,
: that means, in my view, the cheap dollar in the market would be less. Then
: dollar would appreciate (that is what we see tonight), sending the yield
: lower.
: So why the opposite?
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 6 less cheap dollars => harder to borrow => rate has to be higher as incentive
to lender.
borrowed,
Then
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: When Fed pay higher interest rate on the money those central banks borrowed,
: that means, in my view, the cheap dollar in the market would be less. Then
: dollar would appreciate (that is what we see tonight), sending the yield
: lower.
: So why the opposite?
|
l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 7 I don't understand your second point. Could you explain more. Thank you.
not
【在 w****l 的大作中提到】
: sell the short term treasury and give money back to fed.
: i guess
: or the explaination is the yield spread b/w fed rates and note rates is not
: attractive for big guys.
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 8 i don't think it's correct answer.
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: I don't understand your second point. Could you explain more. Thank you.
:
: not
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 9
Only high yield could attract bond buyers. After last week's near death
10Y / 3OY bond auctions, Fed was forced to take action to protect the
bond market even if it comes at equity market's expense.
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: 为什么宣布提高discount rate之后，2YR bill的yield一下子涨了这么多，从0.85到了
: 0.96?
: 谢谢。
|
l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 10 So why people dump 2-Yr bond?
incentive
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: less cheap dollars => harder to borrow => rate has to be higher as incentive
: to lender.
:
: borrowed,
: Then
|
|
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 11 the coupon rate is already fixed. as rate up, it becomes less attractive.
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: So why people dump 2-Yr bond?
:
: incentive
|
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 12 提高 discount rate 意味着银行们要更多的从 money market 贷款， 意味着短期
利率提高。 意味着 yield curve 将变的更 flat , 所以 2YR bill yield 提高.
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: 为什么宣布提高discount rate之后，2YR bill的yield一下子涨了这么多，从0.85到了
: 0.96?
: 谢谢。
|
g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 13 How did you get from "dollar would appreciate" to "sending the yield lower"?
The rate increase causes the future cash flow entitled by a bond issue to
decrease in value. That means two-year bills previously sold are now less
valuable and thus less attractive to buyers. Therefore, a higher yield is
required to draw them in.
borrowed,
Then
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: When Fed pay higher interest rate on the money those central banks borrowed,
: that means, in my view, the cheap dollar in the market would be less. Then
: dollar would appreciate (that is what we see tonight), sending the yield
: lower.
: So why the opposite?
|
l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 14 I see, so when (bond yield - expeced interest rate) is less than a certain
value, bond become less attractive, right?
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: the coupon rate is already fixed. as rate up, it becomes less attractive.
|
l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 15 right. I am a little confused here.
"?
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: How did you get from "dollar would appreciate" to "sending the yield lower"?
: The rate increase causes the future cash flow entitled by a bond issue to
: decrease in value. That means two-year bills previously sold are now less
: valuable and thus less attractive to buyers. Therefore, a higher yield is
: required to draw them in.
:
: borrowed,
: Then
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 16 rule of thumb: yield up <=> price down.
by expected interest rate, u mean coupon rate? if so, u r right as coupon
rate is basically a constant. but there's no threshold as "certain value".
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: I see, so when (bond yield - expeced interest rate) is less than a certain
: value, bond become less attractive, right?
:
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 17 yeah, bond beginners easy to get lost here at the first glance.
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: right. I am a little confused here.
:
: "?
|
g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 18 That happens a lot to me, too.
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: right. I am a little confused here.
:
: "?
|
c**********e
发帖数: 2007 | 19 Fed does not pay interest, it only collect interest. It is the
bank of banks.
borrowed,
--------------
Fed is the only central bank. I think here you mean major banks.
Then
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: When Fed pay higher interest rate on the money those central banks borrowed,
: that means, in my view, the cheap dollar in the market would be less. Then
: dollar would appreciate (that is what we see tonight), sending the yield
: lower.
: So why the opposite?
|
l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 20 Right. Just double check what is discount rate.
【在 c**********e 的大作中提到】
: Fed does not pay interest, it only collect interest. It is the
: bank of banks.
:
: borrowed,
: --------------
: Fed is the only central bank. I think here you mean major banks.
: Then
|
|
|
w****l
发帖数: 6122 | 21 FED以前利息低，大银行可以从FED低息贷款，我胆子大点，就向这些银行借钱，然后拿
去买短期债，同时上杠杆啊，买点CDS保护下，每个月吃点轻松钱。
现在FED升息，我从大银行借钱的成本也增加了，性价比划不来，就卖掉手上的债券，
把这些钱都还给大银行。既然有人开始卖债券，债券的价格下降，yield就上升。 |
l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 22 There is indeed a rate Fed pays on the reserve. I may confuse with that.
Fed can pay depositories an interest rate higher than Fed fund rate, to keep
the excess reserves from rushing into the market.
【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】
: Right. Just double check what is discount rate.
|
F****c
发帖数: 526 | 23 瞎说一下。我听JPM的分析师说因为大家预计不太久的将来Fed会加息，所以把钱先park
在短期的债卷等待，rate上来后再改为长期的，是不是供求导致两年期的债券利率高呢
？ |
g*********0
发帖数: 672 | 24 减少duration而已拉
预期利率上升，必需减少你bond portfolio的duration来避险，都去买了1－year， 一
年的yield不是降低了么？
对长期的看法不变，所以几乎变的只有1－2 year |
