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发帖数: 82 | 1 NWMLS: Home listing inventory skyrocketed in November as sales and prices
both fell further
Written by
The Tim
December 6th, 2018
282 Comments
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November market stats were published by the NWMLS this morning. Home prices
slipped to their lowest level since January, and inventory is declining
seasonally but hit its highest November level since 2011. Both pending and
closed sales continued to slip from last year as well. November’s year-over
-year listing growth was an all-time record at a whopping 114 percent.
The NWMLS press release hasn’t come out yet, so let’s get right to the
data.
CAUTION
NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.
Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the
year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news
for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):
November 2018 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,020 -17.5% +113.9%
Closed Sales 1,811 -11.7% -18.6%
SAAS (?) 1.10 -14.5% +26.3%
Pending Sales 1,926 -16.1% -13.0%
Months of Supply 2.22 -6.5% +162.7%
Median Price* $643,913 -4.0% +2.1%
Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.
King County SFH Inventory
Inventory fell 18 percent from October to November, and was up 114 percent
from last year. We went from the all-time lowest November inventory a year
ago to a seven-year high in 2018.
Here’s the chart of new listings:
King County SFH New Listings
New listings were up three percent from a year ago and continued the usual
seasonal decline month-over-month.
Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:
King County SFH Closed Sales
Closed sales fell 12 percent between October and November. Last year over
the same period closed sales dropped nine percent. Year-over-year closed
sales were down 19 percent.
King County SFH Pending Sales
Pending sales were down 16 percent from October to November, and were down
13 percent year-over-year.
Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented
by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the
decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).
King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY
The massive surge in active inventory has forced me to adjust the y-axis on
this chart. We’ve hit new all-time records each of the last four months.
Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:
King County SFH YOY Price Change
Year-over-year home price changes edged down again from October to November,
to its lowest level since August 2014.
And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month
for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).
King County SFH Prices
November 2018: $643,913
November 2017: $630,750
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)
The Seattle Times hasn’t published their story yet. I’ll update this post
when they do. |
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