b******y
发帖数: 2729 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: buddyboy (hello), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 我来告诉你为什么Facebook可能值300B (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jul 12 00:28:32 2011, 美东)
发信人: vankie (新浪微博@洛城王二), 信区: Stock
标 题: 我来告诉你为什么Facebook可能值300B
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 20 23:56:15 2011, 美东)
FB worth more than 300B at least. Look at Yahoo in 2000 ...
2010 revenue: $1.9B
2010 Ebitda: $??
2011E Revenue: $4.0B
2011E Ebitda: $2.0B
Current valuation on private exchanges: $75B
Implied trailing P/S: 38 X
Implied forward P/S: 19 X
If LNKD can be worth 37X trailing sales, I think a 38X trailing P/S
valuation for Facebook is extremely cheap. Why?
1. It is much, much hotter
2. It is a true, worldwide information monopoly
3. The ad business for Faceboook is still in infant stage
4. 100% revenue growth seems to be a conservative estimate | s*******k
发帖数: 57 | 2 you should buy its share | S********t
发帖数: 3431 | 3 这不明摆着lz已经买了，正积极忽悠更多的人一起买好把股价抬上去
【在 s*******k 的大作中提到】
: you should buy its share
| z*n
发帖数: 2893 | 4 就这版上这三瓜两枣, 根本就是FB的误差啊.
【在 S********t 的大作中提到】
: 这不明摆着lz已经买了，正积极忽悠更多的人一起买好把股价抬上去
| k*****a
发帖数: 1463 | 5 2000 employee, 100B means each employee's business is worth 50 million.
Given all these employees are brilliant and can mature into some business.
Now you are a person in charge of VC. Will you grant 50 million?
Alright, now you decided to go for that splendid person's business.
Now you took a loan or issue coorp bond of 50 million dollar, and use the
proceed for that person. The person generates total revenue per year of 2M,
and profit of 1M. It takes 50 years to see the money back if your capital
has no cost. Unfortunately, this 50M really have a cost (all capitals does,
otherwise whoever sends you the money will knock at your door to call it
back). Since you would have to pay the interest at 5-10% per year, or even
higher depending your business story. You need $2.5M to $5M per year
additional investment to keep the story alive. Until the story meets a
sustainable PE (compare to AAA bond).
All bubbles burst, until the story lost the next listener.
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2011-07-06-facebook-skype-gro
【在 b******y 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
: 发信人: buddyboy (hello), 信区: SanFrancisco
: 标 题: 我来告诉你为什么Facebook可能值300B (转载)
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jul 12 00:28:32 2011, 美东)
: 发信人: vankie (新浪微博@洛城王二), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: 我来告诉你为什么Facebook可能值300B
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 20 23:56:15 2011, 美东)
: FB worth more than 300B at least. Look at Yahoo in 2000 ...
: 2010 revenue: $1.9B
: 2010 Ebitda: $??
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