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t***h
发帖数: 5601 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: wayofflying (小破熊), 信区: Military
标 题: 章家墩希望就其2012中国崩溃的理论进行延期
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 9 17:01:21 2012, 美东)
这个做法不太专业，会引起西方的怀疑的。
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/151326#.UHSQji
Gordon Chang, Who Predicted Collapse by 2012, Wants Extension
Gordon Chang, who predicted China's fall by 2011, expects it to fall this
year.He explained his reasoning in Foreign Policy Magazine.
AAFont Size
By Amiel Ungar
First Publish: 1/2/2012, 11:38 PM
Gordon Chang
Wikipedia
President Harry Truman once remarked that he would prefer one-armed
economists because they could not give him the on the one hand and on the
other hand rigmarole.
Truman would have undoubtedly admired China specialist Gordon G. Chang as a
person willing to stick his neck out. The end of 2011 brought embarrassment
to Chang, who had predicted in 2001 that the Chinese communist regime would
collapse within 10 years. It didn't happen.
Give Chang some credit as he is back in Foreign Policy Magazine to ask for
another year. He is certain that his prophecy will be borne out in 2012.
This recalls the book by Andrei Amalrik entitled "Will the Soviet Union
Survive to 1984?" The Soviet Union did survive 1984 and Amalrik himself but
was gone less than 10 years from that date.
Chang argues that China prospered under a combination of conditions that are
now in the process of evaporating.
Thanks to the reforms of Deng Xiao Ping, who guided China in the post-Mao
era, China was open to foreign visitors and investments. Now this trend has
reversed itself and China has created barriers by insisting on "indigenous
innovation" and preferring national champions. Privatization is giving way
to renationalization.
China benefited from the willingness of her economic partners to look the
other way while China adopted a mercantilist party that discouraged imports
and bolstered exports. Following the 2008 crash, those nations take a less
benign view and want to export in order to maintain jobs and profits.
The depressed demand for Chinese products and trade friction will blunt
China's economic advance. China has tapped all the cheap labor that it could
move from the countryside to the industrial plants and that advantage has
exhausted itself.
Soon the one child policy that the regime imposed on the citizens will begin
to take its toll on the workforce as that workforce grows progressively
greyer. The Chinese economy will soon begin to contract.
The economic downturn comes at the same time as an upsurge in social unrest.
The Communist Party has no answer to this unrest except for beefing up the
police and troop presence and exercising severe censorship in all forms of
the media.
To paraphrase Lenin, all that is needed for a general conflagration in China
is a spark and "an incident can get out of control and spread fast. Because
people across the country share the same thoughts, we should not be
surprised they will act the same way."
If the collapse he predicts does not materialize, Chang can always reappear
next year and ask for another extension. |
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