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发帖数: 2053 | 1 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-14/u-s-retail-sales-rise-more-than-economists-forecast-as-consumers-recover.html
By Shobhana Chandra and Bob Willis - Tue Dec 14 13:47:08 GMT 2010
Sales at U.S. retailers rose more than forecast in November as holiday
shopping got under way, a sign consumers will play a bigger role in the
recovery.
Purchases increased 0.8 percent, following a 1.7 percent gain in October
that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures
showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by
Bloomberg News called for a 0.6 percent rise. Excluding autos, gasoline and
building materials, which are the figures used to calculate gross domestic
product, sales climbed 0.9 percent, the most since August.
Customers snapped up discounts at chains like Target Corp. and Macy’s Inc.
during the Thanksgiving weekend, the traditional kick-off to the busiest
sales season of the year. Even as the world’s largest economy gains
momentum heading into 2011, high unemployment and the risk of a prolonged
drop in prices remain concerns for Federal Reserve policy makers meeting
today.
“Holiday sales are looking pretty good,” Nariman Behravesh, chief
economist at IHS Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report.
“Consumer spending will steadily improve in coming months. We’re seeing a
better overall economic outlook.”
Wholesale Prices
A report from the Labor Department showed wholesale costs rose in November
by the most in eight months, led by higher prices for gasoline, heating oil
and fruit. The producer price index increased 0.8 percent from the prior
month after a 0.4 percent rise. Excluding more volatile food and energy
costs, the so-called core measure posted the smallest year-over-year gain in
five months.
Stock-index futures rebounded as the sales figures helped ease concern over
the outlook for spending after Best Buy Co. reported earnings that trailed
analysts’ estimates. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
expiring in March rose 0.1 percent to 1,237.7 at 8:42 a.m. in New York.
Treasury securities fell, pushing the yield on the 10-year benchmark note up
to 3.31 percent from 3.28 percent late yesterday.
The projected increase in retail sales was based on the median of 71
estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Economists’ forecasts ranged from
increases of 0.2 percent to 1.5 percent. The Commerce Department revised the
October reading up from a 1.2 percent gain previously reported.
Broad-Based Gains
Eight of 13 major categories showed increases last month. Sales at general
merchandise stores climbed 1.3 percent, the most since October 2009, and
purchases at non-store retailers, which include Internet merchants, advanced
2.1 percent, the biggest gain of the year.
Retailers began cutting prices earlier in November than the past few years
and continued through Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Sales at
stores open at least a year climbed by the most in eight months from
November 2009, industry reports showed.
Target and Costco Wholesale Corp. led the sales gains for discounters last
month, while teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co. and department stores
Macy’s and J.C. Penney Co. also posted better-than-forecast increases.
Purchases are broadening out beyond holiday gifts and clothing. Home Depot
Inc., the world’s largest home-improvement retailer, lifted its full-year
profit forecast on stronger fourth-quarter demand for plumbing and
electrical items and Christmas trees.
‘Terrific’ Demand
“As we look at November into December, we see strength across the store,”
Chief Financial Officer Carol Tome said Dec. 8 by telephone from an analysts
’ meeting in Boston. The Atlanta- based company had a “terrific Black
Friday.”
The National Retail Federation has forecast the November- December holiday
sales gain will be the biggest since 2006. A Bloomberg survey taken Dec. 2
to Dec. 8 showed economists raised 2011 projections for consumer purchases,
the biggest part of the economy, to 2.6 percent from 2.3 percent estimated
last month.
Today, the International Council of Shopping Centers revised its November-
December holiday-season sales forecast up by 0.5 percentage point to a range
of 3.5 percent to 4 percent, citing “the strong November performance and
promising trends in early December.”
While recent gains in consumer sentiment bode well for retail sales, the
unemployment rate, which in November reached a seven-month high of 9.8
percent, remains a hurdle.
Fed policy makers, who meet today for the final time this year, may
reiterate the strategy to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries
through June to try to trim joblessness and avert deflation, or an extended
drop in prices.
To contact the reporters on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at
s*******[email protected]; Bob Willis in Washington at b*****[email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at
c******[email protected] |
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