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QueerNews版 - Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012
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话题: obama话题: lichtman话题: says话题: incumbent话题: win
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g********d
发帖数: 4174
1
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/30
Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has
correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election,
has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election
is in the bag.
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says
Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.
Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds
that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will
win re-election. [Check out political cartoons about the 2012 GOP field.]
Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them
incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his
re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says
Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.
Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the
party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against
the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured
into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They
’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond
statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”
Lichtman’s earned quite the reputation. In 1992, it seemed likely former
President George H.W. Bush would be re-elected, having reached historic
highs in popularity after he launched a war that pushed Iraqi troops out of
Kuwait. But Lichtman thought otherwise and that factored into former
Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton’s decision to challenge Bush.“I got a call from
this woman with a thick southern drawl. It was Clinton’s special assistant
. She wanted to know if it was true that a Democrat could win. I assured her
it was and I sent Clinton a copy of my book and a memo and the rest is
history.” [See photos of the Obamas behind the scenes.]
In 2005, Lichtman also hit a home run when he said that the political stage
was looking so bad for Republicans that Democrats could pick a name out of
the phone book and win in 2008, the year a little known first-term senator
became the first African-American to win the presidency.
Now Lichtman’s predicting a repeat performance by Obama.
Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama.
1.Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more
seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous
midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first
released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.”
Obama loses this key.
2.Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would
be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.”
Obama wins this key.
3.Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy
win here for Obama.
4.Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins
this point.
5.Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election
campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.”
6.Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals
or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I
discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.”
Obama loses this key. [Read: Seven Ways Obama Can Gain Credibility on Jobs.]
7.Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in
national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this
administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete
overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the
scholar. Another win for Obama.
8.Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says
Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for
2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.
9.Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “
This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,”
says Lichtman. Another Obama win.
10.Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major
failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen
any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t
foresee anything.” Obama wins again.
11.Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major
success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found
and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his
eighth key.
12.Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a
national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the
incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from
behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t
use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession.
He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses
this key. [See political cartoons about President Obama.]
13.Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic
or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the
GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his
total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.
m******1
发帖数: 19713
2
very encouraging!!
D**S
发帖数: 24887
3
这个"pundit"汉语翻译成什么最合适?
m******1
发帖数: 19713
4
大仙儿

【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: 这个"pundit"汉语翻译成什么最合适?
D**S
发帖数: 24887
5
以前认识个印度人就姓Pundit。

【在 m******1 的大作中提到】
: 大仙儿
m******1
发帖数: 19713
6
为什么印度人的姓是美国词?音译吧?

【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: 以前认识个印度人就姓Pundit。
D**S
发帖数: 24887
7
Possibly.
Maybe same reason that Koreans have last names like Lee, Park, etc.

【在 m******1 的大作中提到】
: 为什么印度人的姓是美国词?音译吧?
1 (共1页)
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相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: obama话题: lichtman话题: says话题: incumbent话题: win