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发帖数: 4174 | 1 Chris Weigant Political Writer and Blogger at ChrisWeigant.com
To most Democrats, Texas Governor Rick Perry's candidacy for the Republican
presidential nomination has so far seemed somewhat of a joke. At least until
now, that is. The Lefty blogosphere has indeed been having a field day ever
since Perry announced, over some of Perry's off-the-cuff comments, both
past and present. Today's news, however, should go a long way towards
forcing Democrats to start taking Perry seriously -- because according to
multiple opinion polls (the first national polls released after Perry jumped
in the race), Mitt Romney is no longer the "frontrunner." Perry is. By
double-digits. [Poll data is available from both Real Clear Politics and the
Huffington Post, if you're interested.]
This should force pundits across the political spectrum to re-evaluate Rick
Perry's campaign. Instead of seeing through the lens of: "What my circle of
friends thinks of Rick Perry's gaffes," this time the pundits should focus a
little more closely on: "What Republican primary voters think of Rick Perry
as a candidate." Because, so far, they seem to be flocking to support Perry
-- to the visible detriment of Mitt Romney's standing in the polls.
The lesson Democrats never seem to learn is that what they look for in a
presidential candidate is just not the same as what Republican primary
voters look for. While Democrats were filled with mirth over Perry's
comments (on all sorts of subjects) in the past few weeks, they didn't
notice that not many people over in the Republican base were laughing. "How
can a person be taken seriously as a presidential candidate who says/
believes X?" was the refrain from the Left, while over on the Right, many
voters were actually just fine with Perry's comments. Perhaps checking some
opinion polling among the American public at large, on the subjects of
evolution and global warming (for instance) might help.
Of course, this all may be a momentary bump for Perry. He's the newest
candidate on the Republican scene, and we've had quite a few of these "
flavor of the month" poll bumps already this year. Perhaps his numbers will
fade, and Mitt Romney will once again re-emerge as the one leading the pack
of contenders. Then again, perhaps not. About the only sure bet right now is
to lay money on Romney soon emerging from his self-imposed shell, and start
actually campaigning in the next few weeks.
Those who knew Perry in Texas have said all along that he's going to be a
force to be reckoned with in the Republican race. Today, people are
beginning to give this opinion a bit more weight. Not only has Perry won
every political race he's ever run in, he is also from the largest state in
the Republican electoral firmament, and he commands a base of wealthy
fundraisers the other Republican candidates must envy. Being from Texas
might give pause to independent voters in the general election, but it is a
major plus for Perry in terms of fundraising and in terms of being the
favorite throughout the entire South during primary season.
Perry could easily win two of the first four primary races -- Iowa and South
Carolina. He's probably not going to do as well in New Hampshire, but he
may be the favorite heading into Florida. From Super Tuesday on, it's hard
not to see how Perry could cut a path to victory.
Perry's biggest drawback is that he does make some Republicans nervous. Some
of these Republicans are quite powerful, either behind the scenes in the
party machinery or out in public in the Republican commentariat. They may
all wind up biting the bullet and falling in behind Romney before this whole
thing is over. The real test is whether their influence in today's Tea-
Party-infused Republican voter base is as powerful as it used to be -- which
is truly an open question, at this point.
Of course, none of this even begins to address what Perry's chances against
Barack Obama would be next year, but this may be immaterial to his chances
of winning the Republican nomination. Some voters always wind up voting on
the "electability" question, but that may not be as true this time around as
it once was. The voters who bear the closest scrutiny, on this question,
are likely the (fairly moderate) suburban Republican voters who may be
concerned with how some of the things Perry says are going to stack up next
to Barack Obama's campaign rhetoric.
Some Democrats may even now be viewing Perry's rise in the polls with glee.
The reasoning behind this will be: "Let's hope they pick their worst
candidate, to improve our guy's chances!" This, however, can be quite
dangerous. OK, sure, in the midterms Republicans blew several quite-winnable
Senate races (see: Christine O'Donnell, Sharron Angle) by nominating some
pretty far-out Tea Party candidates. But this sort of wishful thinking also
has a long history of backfiring.
Remember all the Democrats who greeted the nomination of George W. Bush with
joy? Remember how easy that Texas buffoon was going to be for Al Gore to
crush? Dubya spent two terms in the White House. Older Democrats will also
remember the relief which the Carter White House greeted the news that the
Republicans had nominated that absolute joke of a candidate, Ronald Reagan.
He also served two terms (three, if you count George H.W. Bush's term as a
Reaganite victory lap). Be careful what you wish for, in other words.
But no matter how Democrats (or Republicans, for that matter) are currently
viewing Rick Perry's candidacy, one thing is for certain. From now on, Rick
Perry is going to be taken a lot more seriously. By everyone. | D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 2 This is indeed a weighty issue now. Perry deserves to be taken more
seriously not just because what he stands for but more for the dare prospect
faced with this nation should he end up victorious in the Election. | p********i
发帖数: 1963 | 3 你这个极品脑缠啊，没你脸皮这么厚的。。
prospect
【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: This is indeed a weighty issue now. Perry deserves to be taken more
: seriously not just because what he stands for but more for the dare prospect
: faced with this nation should he end up victorious in the Election.
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