a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 1 If ABK splits its business into two parts: municipal bond/structured finance
, how the stock market will react to this news? Good or bad for shorters?
When Buffet said he wanted to take over the municipal bond insurance for ABK
/MBIA/FGIC, the stock prices moved up 10% in premarket trading and after the
market opens, the prices suddenly crashed.... | k****h
发帖数: 944 | 2 The best solution to the monoline credit crisis is that the street is able
to bail them out. After all, monoline insurers' downgrade means huge future
write downs for the banks which hold bonds insured by these monolines.
Investing in these monoline is simply capital vs. writedown.
But if a bail-out plan cant be reached, then splitting them into two parts,
the profitable municipal finance and the to-be-broken structure finance, is
the second best. Actually, the NYS insurance regulator may force
【在 a**********2 的大作中提到】
: If ABK splits its business into two parts: municipal bond/structured finance
: , how the stock market will react to this news? Good or bad for shorters?
: When Buffet said he wanted to take over the municipal bond insurance for ABK
: /MBIA/FGIC, the stock prices moved up 10% in premarket trading and after the
: market opens, the prices suddenly crashed....
| a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 3 what will happen to the options if it splits?
will the combined underlying price go up or go down?
future
,
is
would
【在 k****h 的大作中提到】
: The best solution to the monoline credit crisis is that the street is able
: to bail them out. After all, monoline insurers' downgrade means huge future
: write downs for the banks which hold bonds insured by these monolines.
: Investing in these monoline is simply capital vs. writedown.
: But if a bail-out plan cant be reached, then splitting them into two parts,
: the profitable municipal finance and the to-be-broken structure finance, is
: the second best. Actually, the NYS insurance regulator may force
| k****h
发帖数: 944 | 4 I would say, breaking up is good news for the shareholders of monolines, and
maybe for the whole market.
Right now, Ambac and MBIA can't attract any businss from the munis market
already, with the market's suspection on whether they are able to keep their
AAA ratings. In other words,they have no new business at all at present.
You can image how bad a situation a company is in without ongoing businss.
Breaking up may allow monolines to keep their triple A ratings for their
municipal bond businss |
|
