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发帖数: 31659 | 1 Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are
affected by recurrent — and predictable — waves of political instability (
P. Turchin and S. A. Nefedov Secular Cycles Princeton Univ. Press; 2009). In
the United States, we have stagnating or declining real wages, a growing
gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced
degrees, and exploding public debt. These seemingly disparate social
indicators are actually related to each other dynamically. They all
experienced turning points during the 1970s. Historically, such developments
have served as leading indicators of looming political instability.
Very long 'secular cycles' interact with shorter-term processes. In the
United States, 50-year instability spikes occurred around 1870, 1920 and
1970, so another could be due around 2020. We are also entering a dip in the
so-called Kondratiev wave, which traces 40-60-year economic-growth cycles.
This could mean that future recessions will be severe. In addition, the next
decade will see a rapid growth in the number of people in their twenties,
like the youth bulge that accompanied the turbulence of the 1960s and 1970s.
All these cycles look set to peak in the years around 2020.
Records show that societies can avert disaster. We need to find ways to
ameliorate the negative effects of globalization on people's well-being.
Economic inequality, accompanied by burgeoning public debt, can be addressed
by making tax rates more progressive. And we should not expand our system
of higher education beyond the ability of the economy to absorb university
graduates. An excess of young people with advanced degrees has been one of
the chief causes of instability in the past. |
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