b*******y
发帖数: 4304 | 1 RQ-170 哨兵是由洛克希德·马丁公司研制的一种主要用于对特定目标进行侦查和监视
的隐形无人
机，也被称作“坎大哈野兽”。它曾在持久自由行动中被部署在阿富汗境内，有消息称
它也将被部署
在韩国。
当地时间5月1日，美国海军海豹突击队突袭巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡附近本拉登藏身的一处房
屋，直接击
中拉登头部。奥巴马宣布了本拉登的死讯，拉登成年儿子和其他两名男性也被击毙。
拉登的死亡对美国及其盟友的反恐战争将产生什么样的影响？腾讯军事独家连线军事专
家张召忠
(微博)教授，为网友一一解读。
以下文字根据对张教授的电话访谈整理。
腾讯军事：
以2001年9-11事件为标志，美国出兵阿富汗拉开“反恐战争”的序幕，迄今已进入第十
个年头。在
这个时候，奥巴马宣布了本拉登的死讯，对美国和反恐战争有何影响及意义？
张召忠：
这次美国对本拉登的跨境“猎杀”行动非常成功，是美国政府对9-11事件的一个完美回
答，是一次
伟大的胜利。对卡扎菲和北非地区取到震慑作用。
这次行动筹备已久，是中情局与驻阿美军密切合作的结果，也得益于美国与巴基斯坦的
情报共享。
奥巴马近日提名中情局局长莱昂·帕内塔任国防部部长，驻阿美军司令戴维·彼得雷乌
斯任中情局局
长，美国家安全团队的重大调整，极可能与锁定、猎杀本拉登有关。
预计未来美国将保持在阿富汗驻军，进一步加强对“基地”组织成员的搜捕。同时，美
国和欧洲盟国
很可能长时间的提高本土恐怖袭击安全戒备级别，严防“基地组织”反扑。美国将加强
对境外的使、
领馆等软目标的保护，提高安全戒备等级。
腾讯军事：
拉登之死对“基地”组织有何影响？
张召忠：
在过去近十年美国及其盟国的打击下，“基地”组织的实力遭到大幅削弱，不少领导人
物被打死，拉
登的死亡对“基地”组织是一次巨大打击，但有可能刺激其恢复、扩大势力。目前，“
基地”组织的势
力已经进入也门、北非地区，和过去相比，“基地”组织的手段更加多样化，加强了对
现代带媒体手
段、网络的利用。
本拉登的死亡不是终结，“基地”组织很可能重新凝聚力量，卷土重来，美国及其盟国
面临的反恐形
势依然严峻。
腾讯军事：
报道称，巴基斯坦情报人员参与了本次行动，而且，本拉登是在巴基斯坦首都附近被打
死，这对巴
基斯坦的安全局势将产生哪些影响？对美、巴关系有何影响。
张召忠：
巴基斯坦与阿富汗接壤，其边境地区的部落有很高的自治权，与政府关系松散，一直是
塔利班组织
盘踞的重要地区。美国曾多次要求巴基斯坦政府，允许驻阿美军跨境打击巴境内的塔利
班成员，允
诺以金钱。为此，美国和穆沙拉夫政府反反复复。
巴基斯坦新政府对美国的反恐策略较为配合，加强了对其境内塔利班武装的打击和压缩
，采取了几
次规模较大的军事行动，遭来“基地”组织的报复。2008年2009年巴基斯坦境内恐怖袭
击频发，损
失惨重，因此到了2010年，巴基斯坦政府又放缓了与美国的配合。美国与巴基斯坦在反
恐问题上吵
吵闹闹，相互指责。
这次猎杀本拉登行动的成功，说明巴基斯坦为美国提供了不少的情报，和军事行动的便
利。也将巴
基斯坦卷入了反恐战争的一线，使其成为恐怖分子的首选打击目标，巴基斯坦境内的安
全形势将更
加严峻。
腾讯军事：
请张教授从军事角度，点评一下美军这次猎杀本拉登的行动。
张召忠：
美军的这次行动与情报部门协调配合，经过长时间的监控和周密部署。
拉登与美国的猫鼠游戏拉锯近十年，2001年至2006年，美国采用常规的军事手段，即正
规作战手
段：侦察机、卫星24小时搜索，山地部队、特种部队地面推进，虽然几次差点抓到本拉
登，但收效
甚微。
2006年以后，美军战场战术随着装备技术水平的提高出现转变，可长时间留空的无人机
挂载制导武
器，赋予美军随时发现、随时确认、随时打击的能力，此后美军每年都有斩获，多次击
毙“基地”组
织领导人员。
美军和中情局通过无人机实时传回的画面，判研确认本拉登的身份，长时间跟踪、锁定
，可以说胸
有成竹，何时收网、是否攻击，只等奥巴马最后敲定下令即可。 | w**h
发帖数: 1121 | 2 话也说得太早了。今天才有新的新闻报道介绍详情。
抓本拉登哪里会这么容易 ？人力情报基本上是决定性的，还重新引起对中情局酷刑的
争论。
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_bin_laden_hunt_for_bin_laden
Phone call by Kuwaiti courier led to bin Laden
WASHINGTON – When one of Osama bin Laden's most trusted aides picked up the
phone last year, he unknowingly led U.S. pursuers to the doorstep of his
boss, the world's most wanted terrorist.
That monitored phone call, recounted Monday by a U.S. official, ended a
years-long search for bin Laden's personal courier, the key break in a
worldwide manhunt. The courier, in turn, led U.S. intelligence to a walled
compound in northeast Pakistan, where a team of Navy SEALs shot bin Laden to
death.
[Related: Timeline: Key dates in the hunt for bin Laden]
The violent final minutes were the culmination of years of intelligence work
. Inside the CIA team hunting bin Laden, it always was clear that bin Laden'
s vulnerability was his couriers. He was too smart to let al-Qaida foot
soldiers, or even his senior commanders, know his hideout. But if he wanted
to get his messages out, somebody had to carry them, someone bin Laden
trusted with his life.
Shortly after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, detainees in the CIA's
secret prison network told interrogators about an important courier with the
nom de guerre Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti who was close to bin Laden. After the
CIA captured al-Qaida's No. 3 leader, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, he confirmed
knowing al-Kuwaiti but denied he had anything to do with al-Qaida.
Then in 2004, top al-Qaida operative Hassan Ghul was captured in Iraq. Ghul
told the CIA that al-Kuwaiti was a courier, someone crucial to the terrorist
organization. In particular, Ghul said, the courier was close to Faraj al-
Libi, who replaced Mohammed as al-Qaida's operational commander. It was a
key break in the hunt for in bin Laden's personal courier.
"Hassan Ghul was the linchpin," a U.S. official said.
Finally, in May 2005, al-Libi was captured. Under CIA interrogation, al-Libi
admitted that when he was promoted to succeed Mohammed, he received the
word through a courier. But he made up a name for the courier and denied
knowing al-Kuwaiti, a denial that was so adamant and unbelievable that the
CIA took it as confirmation that he and Mohammed were protecting the courier
. It only reinforced the idea that al-Kuwaiti was very important to al-Qaida.
If they could find the man known as al-Kuwaiti, they'd find bin Laden.
The revelation that intelligence gleaned from the CIA's so-called black
sites helped kill bin Laden was seen as vindication for many intelligence
officials who have been repeatedly investigated and criticized for their
involvement in a program that involved the harshest interrogation methods in
U.S. history.
[Related: Major attacks by al-Qaida]
"We got beat up for it, but those efforts led to this great day," said Marty
Martin, a retired CIA officer who for years led the hunt for bin Laden.
Mohammed did not discuss al-Kuwaiti while being subjected to the simulated
drowning technique known as waterboarding, former officials said. He
acknowledged knowing him many months later under standard interrogation,
they said, leaving it once again up for debate as to whether the harsh
technique was a valuable tool or an unnecessarily violent tactic.
It took years of work before the CIA identified the courier's real name:
Sheikh Abu Ahmed, a Pakistani man born in Kuwait. When they did identify him
, he was nowhere to be found. The CIA's sources didn't know where he was
hiding. Bin Laden was famously insistent that no phones or computers be used
near him, so the eavesdroppers at the National Security Agency kept coming
up cold.
Ahmed was identified by detainees as a mid-level operative who helped al-
Qaida members and their families find safe havens. But his whereabouts were
such a mystery to U.S. intelligence that, according to Guantanamo Bay
documents, one detainee said Ahmed was wounded while fleeing U.S. forces
during the invasion of Afghanistan and later died in the arms of the
detainee.
But in the middle of last year, Ahmed had a telephone conversation with
someone being monitored by U.S. intelligence, according to an American
official, who like others interviewed for this story spoke only on condition
of anonymity to discuss the sensitive operation. Ahmed was located
somewhere away from bin Laden's hideout when he had the discussion, but it
was enough to help intelligence officials locate and watch Ahmed.
In August 2010, Ahmed unknowingly led authorities to a compound in the
northeast Pakistani town of Abbottabad, where al-Libi had once lived. The
walls surrounding the property were as high as 18 feet and topped with
barbed wire. Intelligence officials had known about the house for years, but
they always suspected that bin Laden would be surrounded by heavily armed
security guards. Nobody patrolled the compound in Abbottabad.
In fact, nobody came or went. And no telephone or Internet lines ran from
the compound. The CIA soon believed that bin Laden was hiding in plain sight
, in a hideout especially built to go unnoticed. But since bin Laden never
traveled and nobody could get onto the compound without passing through two
security gates, there was no way to be sure.
Despite that uncertainty, intelligence officials realized this could
represent the best chance ever to get to bin Laden. They decided not to
share the information with anyone, including staunch counterterrorism allies
such as Britain, Canada and Australia.
By mid-February, the officials were convinced a "high-value target" was
hiding in the compound. President Barack Obama wanted to take action.
"They were confident and their confidence was growing: 'This is different.
This intelligence case is different. What we see in this compound is
different than anything we've ever seen before,'" John Brennan, the
president's top counterterrorism adviser, said Monday. "I was confident that
we had the basis to take action."
Options were limited. The compound was in a residential neighborhood in a
sovereign country. If Obama ordered an airstrike and bin Laden was not in
the compound, it would be a huge diplomatic problem. Even if Obama was right
, obliterating the compound might make it nearly impossible to confirm bin
Laden's death.
Said Brennan, "The president had to evaluate the strength of that
information, and then made what I believe was one of the most gutsiest calls
of any president in recent memory."
Brennan told CNN Tuesday that "there was no single piece of information that
was an 'ah-hah' moment." He said officials took "bits and pieces" of
intelligence gathered and analyzed over a long period of time to nail down
the leads they needed.
Obama tapped two dozen members of the Navy's elite SEAL Team Six to carry
out a raid with surgical accuracy.
Before dawn Monday morning, a pair of helicopters left Jalalabad in eastern
Afghanistan. The choppers entered Pakistani airspace using sophisticated
technology intended to evade that country's radar systems, a U.S. official
said.
Officially, it was a kill-or-capture mission, since the U.S. doesn't kill
unarmed people trying to surrender. But it was clear from the beginning that
whoever was behind those walls had no intention of surrendering, two U.S.
officials said.
The helicopters lowered into the compound, dropping the SEALs behind the
walls. No shots were fired, but shortly after the team hit the ground, one
of the helicopters came crashing down and rolled onto its side for reasons
the government has yet to explain. None of the SEALs was injured, however,
and the mission continued uninterrupted.
With the CIA and White House monitoring the situation in real time —
presumably by live satellite feed or video carried by the SEALs — the team
stormed the compound.
Thanks to sophisticated satellite monitoring, U.S. forces knew they'd likely
find bin Laden's family on the second and third floors of one of the
buildings on the property, officials said. The SEALs secured the rest of the
property first, then proceeded to the room where bin Laden was hiding. A
firefight ensued, Brennan said.
Ahmed and his brother were killed, officials said. Then, the SEALs killed
bin Laden with a bullet just above his left eye, blowing off part his skull,
another official said. Using the call sign for his visual identification,
one of the soldiers communicated that "Geronimo" had been killed in action,
according to a U.S. official.
Bin Laden's body was immediately identifiable, but the U.S. also conducted
DNA testing that identified him with near 100 percent certainty, senior
administration officials said. Photo analysis by the CIA, confirmation on
site by a woman believed to be bin Laden's wife, who was wounded, and
matching physical features such as bin Laden's height all helped confirm the
identification. At the White House, there was no doubt.
"I think the accomplishment that very brave personnel from the United States
government were able to realize yesterday is a defining moment in the war
against al-Qaida, the war on terrorism, by decapitating the head of the
snake known as al-Qaida," Brennan said.
U.S. forces searched the compound and flew away with documents, hard drives
and DVDs that could provide valuable intelligence about al-Qaida, a U.S.
official said. The entire operation took about 40 minutes, officials said.
Bin Laden's body was flown to the USS Carl Vinson in the North Arabian sea,
a senior defense official said. There, aboard a U.S. warship, officials
conducted a traditional Islamic burial ritual. Bin Laden's body was washed
and placed in a white sheet. He was placed in a weighted bag that, after
religious remarks by a military officer, was slipped into the sea about 2 a.
m. EDT Monday.
Said the president, "I think we can all agree this is a good day for America
."
___
Associated Press writers Kimberly Dozier, Eileen Sullivan and Ben Feller in
Washington and Kathy Gannon in Islamabad, Pakistan, contributed to this
report. |
|
