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发帖数: 3946 | 1 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/ukraine-casualty-rate-russia-
war-tipping-point
Ukraine’s high casualty rate could bring war to tipping point
Analysis: Kyiv’s fighting strength is stretched, yet Russia could now
benefit from a pause in fighting
Russia-Ukraine war: latest updates
Pedestrian crossing sign covered in holes made by a cluster bomb.
Dan Sabbagh in Kyiv
Fri 10 Jun 2022 12.26 EDT
Any way you count it, the figures are stark: Ukrainian casualties are
running at a rate of somewhere between 6oo and 1,000 a day. One presidential
adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, told the Guardian this week it was 150 killed
and 800 wounded daily; another, Mykhaylo Podolyak, told the BBC that 100 to
200 Ukrainian troops a day were being killed.
It represents an extraordinary loss of human life and capacity for the
defenders, embroiled in a defence of the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk
that this week turned into a losing battle. Yet the city was also arguably a
place that Ukraine could have retreated from to the more defensible
Lysychansk, across the Siverski Donets River, the sort of defensive
situation that Ukraine has fared far better in.
The sheer number – more than 20,000 casualties a month – raises questions
about what state Ukraine’s army will be in if the war drags on into the
autumn. The same is true for the Russians too, of course. But the invaders
already control large chunks of Ukraine, and they can pause the fighting
with the territorial upper hand.
Consider the figures in context. Ukraine’s army was 125,000 strong,
according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and there
were 102,000 national and border guards in addition. Analysts’ crude
estimates suggest that since the start of the war the total could have
doubled to an impressive 500,000.
Kyiv’s forces are far from a point of collapse. But several months of high
casualties will erode its fighting strength significantly, even allowing for
some of the wounded to recover. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s forces are already
being pushed back in a Donbas artillery bombardment so intense it is likely
to have a shell-shock impact on many of those who survive it. Morale is
certainly an issue for the Russians, but there are now reports of desertions
from the Ukrainian side too. |
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