a***m
发帖数: 5037 | 1 How weak is China’s economy? A raft of data in recent weeks suggest it has
slowed sharply. It may not even be growing at all, given the unreliable
nature of China’s domestic statistics. Most observers say the slowdown is
due to the government’s attempt to stamp out Covid-19 and, more importantly
, the woes of the country’s highly leveraged real-estate sector. Actually,
the property sector’s travails are more a symptom than a cause of China’s
problems. The nation’s economic model is probably broken, much like Japan’
s was three decades before — and for remarkably similar reasons.
I suspect China will avoid an all-out crisis, but economic growth will limp
along at next to nothing or worse. Like those of other North East Asian
countries, China’s growth model has relied heavily on the one pursued by
Japan after World War II. As well as five-year economic plans, the Japanese
banking system was corralled into lending to favored sectors. The whole
system was, in essence, designed to strip out and socialize credit risk,
thereby making borrowing cheaper for the economy as a whole. Lending was
collateralized, generally with property. Companies aimed for market share
rather than profitability. The flip side of cheap capital was poor returns
for investors. Regulators were able to pull off this trick via heavy
restrictions on where investors could put their money. |
b*********3
发帖数: 1709 | |
t**8
发帖数: 4527 | 3 彭博就是纯傻逼媒体
根本不用看
has
importantly
,
s
limp
【在 a***m 的大作中提到】
: How weak is China’s economy? A raft of data in recent weeks suggest it has
: slowed sharply. It may not even be growing at all, given the unreliable
: nature of China’s domestic statistics. Most observers say the slowdown is
: due to the government’s attempt to stamp out Covid-19 and, more importantly
: , the woes of the country’s highly leveraged real-estate sector. Actually,
: the property sector’s travails are more a symptom than a cause of China’s
: problems. The nation’s economic model is probably broken, much like Japan’
: s was three decades before — and for remarkably similar reasons.
: I suspect China will avoid an all-out crisis, but economic growth will limp
: along at next to nothing or worse. Like those of other North East Asian
|
P****i
发帖数: 12972 | 4 又来。
10月的数据好的很，这些记者写东西不先调查的？
has
importantly
,
s
limp
Japanese
【在 a***m 的大作中提到】
: How weak is China’s economy? A raft of data in recent weeks suggest it has
: slowed sharply. It may not even be growing at all, given the unreliable
: nature of China’s domestic statistics. Most observers say the slowdown is
: due to the government’s attempt to stamp out Covid-19 and, more importantly
: , the woes of the country’s highly leveraged real-estate sector. Actually,
: the property sector’s travails are more a symptom than a cause of China’s
: problems. The nation’s economic model is probably broken, much like Japan’
: s was three decades before — and for remarkably similar reasons.
: I suspect China will avoid an all-out crisis, but economic growth will limp
: along at next to nothing or worse. Like those of other North East Asian
|
g****a
发帖数: 1304 | 5 叔认为鳖已经开始崩盘了. 数据已经没有任何可信度. 鳖不知道还在等什么? 叔一再指
出时间不在鳖这边, 拖是鳖最经典的死法.
is
Actually
Japan’
by
share
returns
【在 P****i 的大作中提到】
: 又来。
: 10月的数据好的很，这些记者写东西不先调查的？
:
: has
: importantly
: ,
: s
: limp
: Japanese
|
t**8
发帖数: 4527 | 6 只要一个国家的重心是经济建设，这个国家就不会差
整天吹牛逼，没人干活，早晚都是完蛋
【在 g****a 的大作中提到】
: 叔认为鳖已经开始崩盘了. 数据已经没有任何可信度. 鳖不知道还在等什么? 叔一再指
: 出时间不在鳖这边, 拖是鳖最经典的死法.
:
: is
: Actually
: Japan’
: by
: share
: returns
|
P****i
发帖数: 12972 | 7 还信这个？
现在跟世界各国的贸易额这么大，自己做个假，马上就能发现对不上。
it
unreliable
slowdown
China’
Asian
whole
risk,
was
【在 g****a 的大作中提到】
: 叔认为鳖已经开始崩盘了. 数据已经没有任何可信度. 鳖不知道还在等什么? 叔一再指
: 出时间不在鳖这边, 拖是鳖最经典的死法.
:
: is
: Actually
: Japan’
: by
: share
: returns
|
g****a
发帖数: 1304 | 8 只是制造连重组过程中的报复性底层消费. 鳖想搞上游的有鳖的原因而且路已经都堵死
了. 拖下去鳖的傻逼拳民自己就起来把鳖操死了. 脱钩对欧米就是好坏对鳖就是生死.
叔一再指出时间不在鳖这边,要尽快联毛动手, 要不大家都有要不大家都没有.
再指
will
pursued
【在 P****i 的大作中提到】
: 还信这个？
: 现在跟世界各国的贸易额这么大，自己做个假，马上就能发现对不上。
:
: it
: unreliable
: slowdown
: China’
: Asian
: whole
: risk,
|
b*****l
发帖数: 1 | 9 上次 那个那电阻当窃听芯片的不就是蓬勃
has
importantly
,
s
limp
Japanese
【在 a***m 的大作中提到】
: How weak is China’s economy? A raft of data in recent weeks suggest it has
: slowed sharply. It may not even be growing at all, given the unreliable
: nature of China’s domestic statistics. Most observers say the slowdown is
: due to the government’s attempt to stamp out Covid-19 and, more importantly
: , the woes of the country’s highly leveraged real-estate sector. Actually,
: the property sector’s travails are more a symptom than a cause of China’s
: problems. The nation’s economic model is probably broken, much like Japan’
: s was three decades before — and for remarkably similar reasons.
: I suspect China will avoid an all-out crisis, but economic growth will limp
: along at next to nothing or worse. Like those of other North East Asian
|
s****u
发帖数: 15 | |
c********6
发帖数: 370 | 11 看的什么数据？ 我看你们家先崩了差不多。
【在 g****a 的大作中提到】
: 叔认为鳖已经开始崩盘了. 数据已经没有任何可信度. 鳖不知道还在等什么? 叔一再指
: 出时间不在鳖这边, 拖是鳖最经典的死法.
:
: is
: Actually
: Japan’
: by
: share
: returns
|
z*****2
发帖数: 39 | 12 属实
你是明白人
鳖已经hold不住了。大规模倒闭失业已经开始了。
这一把规模是地球有史以来最大
无比壮观
it
unreliable
slowdown
China’
Asian
whole
risk,
was
【在 g****a 的大作中提到】
: 叔认为鳖已经开始崩盘了. 数据已经没有任何可信度. 鳖不知道还在等什么? 叔一再指
: 出时间不在鳖这边, 拖是鳖最经典的死法.
:
: is
: Actually
: Japan’
: by
: share
: returns
|
g****a
发帖数: 1304 | 13 倒闭失业对鳖和儒道佛傻逼拳民的组合不是问题, 问题是底层对画的餅失去耐心, 后富
对先富的清算会突如其来. 地产党内部有大把的势力要靠煽动傻逼拳民去推倒上层. 在
一个号称共产主义和社会主义的政权里出现如此大的地域人群财富区别基本就是在找死
. 傻逼拳民的下场不是给煽动去火并囼畜就是给煽动去火并中南海. 这是极大的一股力
量非常难以控制.
再指
will
pursued
【在 z*****2 的大作中提到】
: 属实
: 你是明白人
: 鳖已经hold不住了。大规模倒闭失业已经开始了。
: 这一把规模是地球有史以来最大
: 无比壮观
:
: it
: unreliable
: slowdown
: China’
|
m*t
发帖数: 7490 | 14 一万个指标，找出那么几百个差的就开始崩溃
典型的自我麻醉在平行世界里无可自拔 |
z*****2
发帖数: 39 | 15 人的生化指标千千万
出现一个恶性肿瘤指标就惊慌实属毫无必要
【在 m*t 的大作中提到】
: 一万个指标，找出那么几百个差的就开始崩溃
: 典型的自我麻醉在平行世界里无可自拔
|
z*****2
发帖数: 39 | 16 经济危机必然带来社会危机
社会危机必然带来政治危机
最后的结果必然是政治动荡，其结果具有极强的不确定性。
包子大概率死无葬身之地
【在 g****a 的大作中提到】
: 倒闭失业对鳖和儒道佛傻逼拳民的组合不是问题, 问题是底层对画的餅失去耐心, 后富
: 对先富的清算会突如其来. 地产党内部有大把的势力要靠煽动傻逼拳民去推倒上层. 在
: 一个号称共产主义和社会主义的政权里出现如此大的地域人群财富区别基本就是在找死
: . 傻逼拳民的下场不是给煽动去火并囼畜就是给煽动去火并中南海. 这是极大的一股力
: 量非常难以控制.
:
: 再指
: will
: pursued
|
g****a
发帖数: 1304 | 17 黄畜儒道佛千百年的腌制就是为了不容易出现政治危机. 黄畜的忍耐力惊人. 出问题就
是黄畜对餅失去惊人耐心.
后富
. 在
找死
股力
【在 z*****2 的大作中提到】
: 经济危机必然带来社会危机
: 社会危机必然带来政治危机
: 最后的结果必然是政治动荡，其结果具有极强的不确定性。
: 包子大概率死无葬身之地
|
