C****2
发帖数: 2904 | 1 1. 最大可能，中国遭受一定挫折，但完成大部分重大目标，发展总体来说还算顺利，
中美关系竞争大，合作空间小。
2. 有可能，中国发展遭受重大挫折，绝大部分重大目标未完成，经济滞胀，被美国高
科技封锁，越南印度啃噬低端产业，这样的情况下，中美关系将延续2018年以前的模式
，双方有限合作。
3. 可能性低，中国内部权力斗争加剧，分崩离析，经济崩溃，国力大跌，和美国相差
越来越大，这种情况下，美国和中国将少有交集，中美关系将恢复到80年代水准。
军事评估，
2024年，美国在亚太将陷入被压制的困境，虽然美国可能做出更多激烈的回应，但在亚
洲的部署将面临越来越大的压力。 | h*****u
发帖数: 16 | 2 美国人真他妈的乐观。
有没有同感的？！
大部分目标实现，土鳖跟你竞争个屁啊 | S**********p
发帖数: 331 | | x********g
发帖数: 110 | 4 什么狗屁翻译？蒙着眼睛骗自己？
Key Findings
Any one of the four scenarios analyzed—triumphant China, ascendant China,
stagnant China, or imploding China—is possible three decades hence
A triumphant China is least likely because such an outcome presumes
little margin for error and the absence of any major crisis or serious
setback between now and 2050.
An imploding China is not likely because, to date, Chinese leaders have
proved skilled at organizing and planning, adept at surmounting crises, and
deft at adapting and adjusting to changing conditions.
By 2050, China most likely will have experienced some mixture of
successes and failures, and the most plausible scenarios would be an
ascendant China or a stagnant China. In the former scenario, China will be
largely successful in achieving its long-term goals, while, in the latter
scenario, China will confront major challenges and will be mostly
unsuccessful in implementing its grand strategy.
These four scenarios could produce any one of three potential trajectories
in U.S.-China relations: parallel partners, colliding competitors, or
diverging directions
The parallel partners trajectory is a continuation of the state of U.S.-
China relations in 2018. This trajectory is most likely to occur with a
stagnant China and probably an ascending China.
The colliding competitors trajectory is most likely to manifest in a
triumphant China scenario in which Beijing becomes more confident and
assertive.
The diverging directions trajectory is most likely to occur in an
imploding China scenario because Beijing will be preoccupied with mounting
domestic problems. | V*******n
发帖数: 1 | 5 懒得公司在韩战越战的败绩之后还存在本身就是奇迹。 | z**********e
发帖数: 1052 | | i****d
发帖数: 724 | 7 往前看30年？问题是美国还能撑几年？兰德太有自知之明了！这个结论完全是站在居高
临下的角度，而Trump政权现在和中国斗的身姿（打嘴炮的时候当然还是居高临下的）
已经是把中国放在平等的地位了
have
and
【在 x********g 的大作中提到】
: 什么狗屁翻译？蒙着眼睛骗自己？
: Key Findings
: Any one of the four scenarios analyzed—triumphant China, ascendant China,
: stagnant China, or imploding China—is possible three decades hence
: A triumphant China is least likely because such an outcome presumes
: little margin for error and the absence of any major crisis or serious
: setback between now and 2050.
: An imploding China is not likely because, to date, Chinese leaders have
: proved skilled at organizing and planning, adept at surmounting crises, and
: deft at adapting and adjusting to changing conditions.
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