m**c
发帖数: 1012 | 1 Among the many themes of Donald Trump’s presidency, his contentious
policies toward China stick out. U.S. foreign-policy experts have noted that
Trump’s almost three years in office have witnessed the long-held
bipartisan consensus on China shift further and faster than in any other
period in history, leading to a rapid and dramatic deterioration of one of
the world’s most consequential bilateral relationships.
Though there’s broad political agreement on the need for the United States
to take a tougher line on China, the administration’s mercurial approach
has led to criticism from Republicans and Democrats alike. Trump has
prosecuted a costly trade war against Beijing, banned Huawei’s technology
from U.S. 5G networks, and recently placed visa restrictions on Chinese
Communist Party officials involved in the extrajudicial incarceration of
millions of Muslims in Xinjiang. He has marketed himself as the first U.S.
president who is willing to get tough on China.
But for China, Trump’s weaknesses are more important than his bluster.
During numerous off the record discussions with Chinese government officials
and scholars, we are finding that an increasing number are hoping for Trump
’s reelection next year. At a time when China’s political influence and
military capabilities are growing, they argue that in spite of his anti-
China bluster, Trump has afforded Beijing the space to expand its influence
across Asia and, more importantly, comprehensively weakened Washington’s
global leadership. From a zero-sum standpoint, many Chinese have concluded
that Trump’s policies are strategically very good for China in the long run.
These thinkers believe that Trump, by polarizing U.S. domestic politics,
damaging Washington’s international credibility and traditional global
stewardship, and undermining long-standing alliance arrangements, has
presented Beijing with its “greatest strategic opportunity since the end of
the Cold War,” as Yan Xuetong, one of China’s foremost strategic thinkers
, put it.
These Chinese thinkers see Trump as a dog with a big bark but little bite.
He tested Beijing’s patience by accepting a phone call with Taiwanese
President Tsai Ing-Wen, in what the Chinese viewed as a violation of the “
One China” policy, shortly after his election in 2016. Trump publicly
questioned whether he would stick with the policy before saying he would,
but he also said he would have to check with Chinese President Xi Jinping
before taking another call with Tsai. Though the administration has
greenlighted some arms sales to Taiwan, whether Trump would back Taipei were
Beijing to attack remains doubtful, especially given his mercenary attitude
toward U.S. military power.
Beijing has already gained significantly from Trump’s term in office.
Despite prosecuting trade spats with India and the European Union, as well
as China, the administration has largely given up on using World Trade
Organization courts to litigate trade complaints and has blocked
appointments to the organization’s Appellate Body. These actions not only
get in the way of the world’s most important trade dispute settlement
system but also embolden other countries to ignore international law.
When not damaging global governance institutions and mechanisms that helped
establish the United States as the world’s preeminent superpower, Trump’s
antipathy toward trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership has
afforded China an opening. While Trump is shredding the cooperative trade
agreements that have been central to U.S. international economic policy,
Beijing is in the late stages of negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership, a deal that would tie China, India, Japan, South
Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and the 10 Association of Southeast Asian
Nations members into the world’s largest trade bloc. If that agreement is
ratified, the United States will be left out of the two largest global free
trade deals, the other being the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for
Trans-Pacific Partnership, negotiated among 11 countries involved in the
original Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. This would add insult to
injury, as China already trades more with every major Asian economy than the
United States does.
When not damaging global governance institutions and mechanisms that helped
establish the United States as the world’s preeminent superpower, Trump’s
antipathy toward trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership has
afforded China an opening.
These relinquishments of U.S. leadership in multilateral institutions
provide China the space to take a greater role in global governance and in
setting international rules and norms. Beijing has taken notice, asserting
itself at the United Nations and submitting trade war-related complaints to
the WTO, while promoting the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as a
viable alternative to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Though
Beijing has moved to make the Belt and Road Initiative the unparalleled
vanguard project of global infrastructure development, the Trump
administration has yet to provide a viable alternative.
Previous U.S. presidents have recognized that the United States gains
strength from working with partners with which it shares values, history,
and a sense of purpose. This is no more true than in its approach to the
Asia-Pacific, and as Michael Green, a former senior director for Asian
affairs at the National Security Council under President George W. Bush,
recently said in testimony before Congress, “without allies, we have no
China strategy.”
But Trump has taken a starkly different approach, and his rhetoric, actions,
and decisions have led countries to question whether they can count on the
United States. Trump’s has abandoned the Kurds, longtime partners in the
Middle East; questioned America’s commitment to NATO; and let the U.S. post
-World War II East Asian alliance network decay.
READ MORE
SPARTANBURG, SC - FEBRUARY 20: (CHINA OUT, SOUTH KOREA OUT) Presidential
candidate Donald Trump speaks following his victory in the South Carolina
primary on February 20, 2016 in Spartanburg, South Carolina. The New York
businessman won the first Southern primary after a heated battle with the
other candidates. (Photo by The Asahi Shimbun via Getty Images)
China Just Won The U.S. Election
G-20 summit dinner
Trump’s Credibility With China Plummets
As China expands its reach, South Korea and Japan, U.S. allies that have
formed the backbone of the U.S. military’s Northeast Asia security strategy
for over 70 years, are locked in a bitter dispute that has led them to
partially suspend their trade relationship. The Trump administration has
largely ignored the dispute, displaying little understanding of the
importance of these regional partners. Notwithstanding its long history of
disagreements with both Tokyo and Seoul, Beijing has now stepped forward and
offered to assist in settling the dispute, highlighting the absence of U.S.
leadership on the issue.
The Trump administration’s lack of diplomatic skill is also evident in
Southeast Asia, as the Philippines, a U.S. ally, has drifted toward Beijing
in recent years. Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has made five trips
to China and none to the United States since assuming office in 2016. In an
all-too-apt display of Duterte’s strategic alignment, the Philippines used
Chinese money to build a new city on land that had once been part of Clark
Air Base, a U.S. military installation established during the Spanish-
American War. These developments come while Beijing continues to ignore a U.
N. ruling in favor of the Philippines in a South China Sea dispute, showing
just how much Washington’s relationship with Manila has regressed.
As for the trade war, the much-hyped mini-deal, which included agreements on
purchases of agricultural goods and the elimination of future tariffs, fell
well short of Trump’s original goal of forcing Beijing to adopt critically
important structural economic reforms that would help establish a balanced
trade relationship with China over the long term.
Instead of rolling back Chinese subsidies and improving intellectual
property protections, the deal mostly helps Trump relieve political pressure
in agricultural states as he heads into the presidential campaign. This is
part of a pattern where Trump sets high objectives, boasts he will achieve
them, and then fails to deliver. The mini-deal was clearly welcomed in China
, viewed as a victory for Xi, and provided further evidence that Trump’s
capricious behavior can be tolerated, if not managed. The Chinese will see
Trump’s acceptance of the watered-down deal, made up mostly of Chinese
purchases that have been on the table for more than a year, as a sign of
weakness as he faces possible impeachment and another grueling campaign.
Though the Chinese leadership certainly finds Trump to be personally
annoying, that he largely views U.S.-China ties through the lens of trade
has, according to several of the scholars we spoke with, limited further
deterioration of the relationship. Trump has pushed back against his
advisors’ more provocative and aggressive policy proposals while watering
down others, such as the recent Xinjiang sanctions, which many members of
Congress wanted to include Global Magnitsky Act provisions. In contrast,
several Democratic presidential candidates, most notably Elizabeth Warren,
have called for a tougher line on many China-related issues, including Hong
Kong and human rights.
Though the Chinese leadership certainly finds Trump to be personally
annoying, that he largely views U.S.-China ties through the lens of trade
has, according to several of the scholars we spoke with, limited further
deterioration of the relationship.
A different U.S. president could, and likely would, take a tougher tack on
human rights and use the vast resources of all departments and agencies of
the U.S. government to operationalize and execute a new and updated approach
to China. Meanwhile, as the bilateral relationship becomes more contentious
, many Chinese think that four more years of Trump weakening the United
States’ international standing could yield Beijing the space to consolidate
its global gains and welcome a new American president in 2025 from an even
more favorable strategic position.
To be clear, not every Chinese scholar or official with whom we talked
wanted to see another four years of Trump. Some, such as the University of
International Relations professor Da Wei, have argued that Trump’s damaging
of both Chinese and U.S. interests could result in a deeply compromised
international order and complicate Beijing’s continued rise.
But those who hope for a second term see an unprecedented strategic
opportunity for China in Trump’s destruction of what they view as the key U
.S. pillars of strength. By gutting U.S. political advantages at home,
eviscerating America’s reputation and credibility abroad, and subverting
the heretofore solid alliance structure in the Asia-Pacific, Trump is
weakening the United States. In doing so, he is granting China the
opportunity to gain critical geopolitical advantages and create a more
favorable international environment in which to advance its own interests.
Paul Haenle holds the Maurice R. Greenberg Director's Chair at the Carnegie
–Tsinghua Center. He previously served as White House China Director on the
National Security Council staffs of former presidents George W. Bush and
Barack Obama.
Sam Bresnick is an assistant editor at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center. |
|
