|
|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 1 因为床铺已经没有任何credit，中方对他已经完全丧失了信任。协议即使今天签署，明
天也会随便找个理由撕毁。所以谈不谈都无所谓了。
中方曾经承诺只要不增加新关税就行，还可以继续谈，达成某个协议。但是现在态度反
而更强硬了。明显是不抱希望了。
‘Made In China’ Tariffs Rising December 15 Might Be Bankable
The market has no real idea as to whether or not President Trump will hike
tariffs on more than $150 billion worth of goods, including consumer goods,
on December 15. But it’s best to hedge as if he will.
Every Asian trading desk was in sell mode on Tuesday after Commerce
Secretary Wilbur Ross said the December 15tariff schedule is still
active unless the phase one trade deal gets signed within the next two weeks
.
On Wednesday morning, Bloomberg reported from China that U.S.-China trade
talks were going well, quoting anonymous sources. Stocks rose as result
today.
Brian McCarthy, head of strategy for Macrolens, a boutique investment
research firm with a keen focus on China, thinks markets are in a “fool me
twice” scenario.
“Phase one is loser both politically and strategically,” he says.“It
’s the ‘anti-MAGA deal’—short-termism borne of weakness. I see Trump
avoiding this blunder and tariffs going up on December 15.”
China says it wants a rollback on tariffs before reaching a deal.
Market sensitivity to trade talks has risen due to the lack of clarity on
the phase one mini-deal coupled by increased tensions over anti-China human
rights legislation. Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy
Act last week.
There is a desire in the Trump camp to avoid the December tariffs because it
will irk a key constituent going into 2020. If prices go up on low-cost
retail goods like apparel, it could undermine wage gains and hurt Trump’s
reelection odds.
But a postponement of the phase one deal, as Trump alluded to this week,
will likely require a sign of renewed good faith between Beijing and
Washington. How that happens following the latest attacks on China for human
rights, and this week’s NATO meeting acknowledging China as a military
threat, remains a mystery. It would be capitulation from Xi Jinping to sign
a deal now. He can buy time in hopes Trump is replaced by friendlier forces
next year.
“The fate of the December tariff increases remains the biggest issue of
concern for the moment,” write Raymond James & Associates policy analysts
led by Ed Mills in a note to clients today. Mills says the market is “
likely upgrading the probability” of tariffs in light of Washington’s
tacit support for the Hong Kong protesters and its continued attacks on
Huawei, the world’s largest telecommunications equipment manufacturer.
“These developments raise fears in the final two weeks before a critical
decision on the fate of the December 15 tariff increases,” the Raymond
James report authors wrote.
Assuming tariffs go up in December, China may retaliate by creating its own
blacklist of U.S. companies or banning official China business with
lawmakers who backed the recent human rights bills.
“Investors need to be cautious,” says Neil Mackinnon, senior economist for
VTB Capital in London making what may be the understatement of the year
when it comes to the Trump-China trade.
Recent PMI data for November has shown signs of “green shoots” for the
global economy. If they don’t wilt on the news of more tariffs, there will
be headlines suggesting that they soon will.
For much of the last three months, news of businesses holding back on
investing because of trade uncertainties has caused some investors to flip
the switch to risk-off. Global stock markets beat the odds and rose anyway,
thanks to easy money policies flooding the zone.
The global economy is still fragile. Trump’s threat to shelve phase one and
hike tariffs in 11 days represents a headwind many in the market were
starting to discount.
“This escalates the longer-term hegemonic battle between the U.S. and China
,” says Mackinnon about tariff escalation. “Financial markets have
understandably responded by going into ‘risk off’ mode.” | S*********e
发帖数: 4 | 2 共产中国如果有半点credit也不会到今天这种傻比样。欠收拾，不挨抽不舒服
【在 W*****B 的大作中提到】
: 因为床铺已经没有任何credit，中方对他已经完全丧失了信任。协议即使今天签署，明
: 天也会随便找个理由撕毁。所以谈不谈都无所谓了。
: 中方曾经承诺只要不增加新关税就行，还可以继续谈，达成某个协议。但是现在态度反
: 而更强硬了。明显是不抱希望了。
: ‘Made In China’ Tariffs Rising December 15 Might Be Bankable
: The market has no real idea as to whether or not President Trump will hike
: tariffs on more than $150 billion worth of goods, including consumer goods,
: on December 15. But it’s best to hedge as if he will.
: Every Asian trading desk was in sell mode on Tuesday after Commerce
: Secretary Wilbur Ross said the December 15tariff schedule is still
| x****o
发帖数: 29677 | 3 这也是高高在上的角度看待问题，北京还期望换一个比川普更友好的？
北京思想早就转变了，不指望后面美国领导人像之前的了 | h****e
发帖数: 1 | | m****a
发帖数: 1 | 5 这不是床铺的问题，中方如果能跟床铺个人签协议肯定愿意签，但是那种协议没有用
现在美国国会隔几天丢出一个XX人权法案，这种情况下中国不可能跟美国的任何代表签
协议
不信走着瞧，等到床铺好不容易推动一点谈判进展的时候国会又会丢出一个XX人权法案
,
schedule is still
【在 W*****B 的大作中提到】
: 因为床铺已经没有任何credit，中方对他已经完全丧失了信任。协议即使今天签署，明
: 天也会随便找个理由撕毁。所以谈不谈都无所谓了。
: 中方曾经承诺只要不增加新关税就行，还可以继续谈，达成某个协议。但是现在态度反
: 而更强硬了。明显是不抱希望了。
: ‘Made In China’ Tariffs Rising December 15 Might Be Bankable
: The market has no real idea as to whether or not President Trump will hike
: tariffs on more than $150 billion worth of goods, including consumer goods,
: on December 15. But it’s best to hedge as if he will.
: Every Asian trading desk was in sell mode on Tuesday after Commerce
: Secretary Wilbur Ross said the December 15tariff schedule is still
| W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 6 签了协议的话，卢比奥第一个会跳出来大骂床铺向邪恶中共投降！
【在 m****a 的大作中提到】
: 这不是床铺的问题，中方如果能跟床铺个人签协议肯定愿意签，但是那种协议没有用
: 现在美国国会隔几天丢出一个XX人权法案，这种情况下中国不可能跟美国的任何代表签
: 协议
: 不信走着瞧，等到床铺好不容易推动一点谈判进展的时候国会又会丢出一个XX人权法案
:
: ,
: schedule is still
| l*******2
发帖数: 1 | 7 LOL
【在 W*****B 的大作中提到】
: 签了协议的话，卢比奥第一个会跳出来大骂床铺向邪恶中共投降！
| f******t
发帖数: 19544 | 8 土共还是心存希望的，签协议有助于维持现状，就有利于土共实力增长和美帝实力衰弱
。能签为啥不签，巨巨要再毁也要点时间。 | m****a
发帖数: 1 | 9 根本签不了，国会一会丢出一个人权法案就是要拦着中国跟床铺签协议
【在 W*****B 的大作中提到】
: 签了协议的话，卢比奥第一个会跳出来大骂床铺向邪恶中共投降！
| j****z
发帖数: 299 | 10 还是有点抱着希望的，毕竟中国还不想撕破脸，还有着合则多赢，斗则多输的观念，想
着团结一切可以团结的力量，但实在是不能合的话，那也只能分了 | n*****k
发帖数: 2801 | 11 现在还在谈吗？感觉无声无息的压根没在谈的样子
：因为床铺已经没有任何credit，中方对他已经完全丧失了信任。协议即使今天签署，
明天也会随便找个理由撕毁。所以谈不谈都无所谓了。
： | l******t
发帖数: 55733 | 12 前几个月里程double，现在deal结束了没动力飞
【在 n*****k 的大作中提到】
: 现在还在谈吗？感觉无声无息的压根没在谈的样子
:
: ：因为床铺已经没有任何credit，中方对他已经完全丧失了信任。协议即使今天签署，
: 明天也会随便找个理由撕毁。所以谈不谈都无所谓了。
: ：
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
