由买买提看人间百态

boards

本页内容为未名空间相应帖子的节选和存档,一周内的贴子最多显示50字,超过一周显示500字 访问原贴
Military版 - Are Foreign Companies Really Leaving China in Droves?
相关主题
好文推荐:Open Letter to Larry Kudlow (转载)娶个中国老婆也没用
“Balancing越南抗议后,脸书及时更正错误,已将西沙和南沙从中国地图上去
贸易战到了第三轮, 大家就各自逃命吧“voluntarily
无惧贸易战, 美国又一公司在中国重磅投资,90亿美元外交黑话的意思是双方无法达成
曰,在华的外国学生有26万了?!因为时机掌握的非常好
Chinese economic reform and development(ZT)2000亿中国货加税来临,股票水了
这位是军版的老将还是小将?华盛顿邮报:疮破严重误判中国的经济实力
Vietnam and Philippines agree to oppose China说中国卖美债的看过来-China’s “nuclear option” would be economic suicide
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: china话题: firms话题: foreign话题: us话题: states
进入Military版参与讨论
1 (共1页)
s**w
发帖数: 499
1
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/946992-are-foreign-companies-really-
leaving-china-in-droves
President Donald Trump, in defending his trade war with China, has yet again
let his Twitter fingers get ahead of reality. He tweeted in late August that
“China wants to make a deal so badly. Thousands of companies are leaving
because of the Tariffs. They must stem the flow.” This supposed exodus of
foreign firms is another element informing his view that China is under
increasing economic pressure and thus anxious to accept US terms for a trade
agreement. As is the case with Trump’s claim that the US tariffs are
slowing China’s economy and increasing its unemployment, the facts fail to
support his view.
The trade war has not dampened FDI in China
First, nonfinancial foreign direct investment (FDI) in China is currently
running at an annual rate of almost $140 billion, meaning that thousands of
new foreign firms are established in China every month. Moreover, as shown
in the figure below, since the tariff war broke out in mid-2018 FDI has
expanded about 3 percent annually, roughly the same pace as in the previous
five years. And the recent data do not reflect massive new investments in
chemical plants. China recently approved wholly foreign-owned investments by
both ExxonMobil and BASF, each at a record setting $10 billion. Since
ground has not yet been broken, these two projects are not yet included in
FDI data. Continued large inbound FDI flows are consistent with the
expectations of member companies of the US-China Business Council. The
Council’s very recent member survey found that 97 percent reported that
their operations in China are profitable, and 87 percent said they had not
relocated and had no plans to relocate any of their activities. In short,
there is little support for the view that large numbers of foreign firms are
fleeing China; the opposite seems to be the case.
A handful of firms leaving China do not confirm a broad trend
A few foreign firms recently have left China, but two points need to be kept
in mind. First, foreign firms have been moving out of China for decades.
Some firms enter with business strategies that fail and then exit. The best
example is Occidental Petroleum, which entered China in 1983 with a flawed
business strategy and was forced to write off its $250 million investment
when it withdrew in 1990. Other foreign firms, especially those exporting
the most labor-intensive consumer goods, flourished in China for many years
but eventually, as local wages continued to rise, moved production to other
countries with much lower wages, for example Bangladesh. Second, China has
over a half million foreign-invested firms. Anecdotes of a handful of firms
leaving China do not confirm a broad trend.
Many foreign firms in China, especially US firms, are there to produce goods
to sell in China
While some firms report that they are considering alternatives to producing
in China, it remains to be seen how many ultimately will leave and, of these
, how many will relocate to the United States. A couple of factors are at
play here. First, a large share of foreign firms in China, especially US
firms, are there primarily to produce goods to sell on China’s still
rapidly growing domestic market. These firms have no incentive to relocate
within Asia, much less to the United States. Caterpillar, for example, makes
construction equipment in more than 30 plants in China, almost all sold on
the domestic market. Given the high costs of shipping relative to value, it
is not feasible to make excavators, front-end loaders, and similar products
in the United States and then export them to China. Caterpillar, like other
foreign producers of capital goods in China, is very unlikely to relocate
any of its production.
Relocating out of China is costly
Second, relocating production out of China is easier said than done. Foreign
affiliates operating in China draw on an extensive local supply chain that
has been built up over the decades and employ about 25 million Chinese
workers, a significant share of which are skilled engineers and managers.
Vietnam is commonly mentioned as an alternative, but it is too small to
absorb more than a tiny fraction of production by foreign enterprises now
operating in China. Its total nonfarm employment is only 44 million, and
foreign firms operating there already report shortages of skilled engineers
and managers. Relocating a significant number of foreign firms from China to
Vietnam would put further upward pressure on its already rising wages,
intensify existing skilled labor shortages, and stretch Vietnam’s limited
logistical capacity to the breaking point.
Apple contracted with Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn to produce 220 million
iPhones in China in 2018. Think of the difficulties Foxconn would face if
Apple asked the firm to relocate from China. Foxconn employs hundreds of
thousands of factory workers and tens of thousands of skilled engineers and
managers in China and draws on a network of more than 1,500 local suppliers.
As Arthur Kroeber, the editor-in-chief of China Economic Quarterly, puts it
replicated in Vietnam or India.”[1]
Despite US tariffs on China’s exports to the United States, it appears, at
least so far, that multinational firms, including those based in the United
States, continue to find China an attractive environment for new investment.
Thus, Trump’s claim that an exodus of foreign firms will force China to
capitulate to US demands to settle the trade war is wishful thinking at best
. Moreover, few US multinationals already in China are likely to shift their
production back to the United States. The president’s claim that his
tariffs on Chinese goods will reverse the decades-long decline in the share
of US employment in manufacturing very likely also will go unfulfilled.
Despite Trump’s tariffs, multinational firms in the United States and other
countries are still investing in China.
l**********t
发帖数: 520
2
现在外资也在观察,如果川普连任,如果4年关税高于搬运成本,那外资肯定会开始搬
到越南孟加拉
s**w
发帖数: 499
3
搬到越南孟加拉川普就不加税?
Google 一下" trump,Vietnam, trade war."
1 (共1页)
进入Military版参与讨论
相关主题
说中国卖美债的看过来-China’s “nuclear option” would be economic suicide曰,在华的外国学生有26万了?!
在贸易战中,本田将SUV的生产从美国转移到中国Chinese economic reform and development(ZT)
:Peter Navarro on US-China Talks, Trade这位是军版的老将还是小将?
I will be responding to China’s Tariffs this afternoon.Vietnam and Philippines agree to oppose China
好文推荐:Open Letter to Larry Kudlow (转载)娶个中国老婆也没用
“Balancing越南抗议后,脸书及时更正错误,已将西沙和南沙从中国地图上去
贸易战到了第三轮, 大家就各自逃命吧“voluntarily
无惧贸易战, 美国又一公司在中国重磅投资,90亿美元外交黑话的意思是双方无法达成
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: china话题: firms话题: foreign话题: us话题: states