z*******4
发帖数: 285 | 1 How did Mao manage to kill ~78 million people?
Janus Dongye Qimeng
Janus Dongye Qimeng, Research Scientist at Dark Matter (2019-present)
Updated Jul 26, 2019
Firstly let us think about an interesting question:
How many Chinese people were killed during Xi Jinping’s term?
The answer is: 59.6 million
Can you believe it? Yes it is true!
Consider the death rate of current Chinese population is 7.1‰, one could
easily calculate this number: 1.4billion * 7.1‰ * 6 years = 59.6 million,
which is even greater than the total population of Italy btw. This
estimation includes the number of people who died naturally, from disease,
natural disasters and accidents.
You may think this is a joke. However actually, this is exactly how western
propaganda used to exaggerate and manipulate data to demonize the “bad
dictators”.
Let us look back at the Mao’s period (1949–1976) and do a bit of math:
During the 27 years, Chinese population grew from 550 million to 900 million
. If we assume the death rate of 10.0‰ during the 27 years, then there are
around 200 million died during Mao’s rule. Then it is safe to say Mao
killed 200 million people, right?
Next let us have a look at the controversial famine period 1959–1961 more
in details. According to the data from World Data Atlas (China Death rate,
1960-2017 - knoema.com), it is indeed true that the death rate for this
period is three times larger than that for the normal days.
At that time the Chinese population was around 660 million, and the death
rates reported were: 1959: 14.6‰, 1960: 25.4‰, 1961: 14.2‰
Hence the number of people that were killed is: 660million*(14.6‰+25.4‰+14
.2‰) = 35.7 million
30–45 million is a number frequently reported from numerous sources and
books. This is exactly how the number in those news was calculated:
Mao's Great Leap Forward 'killed 45 million in four years'
45 million died in Mao's Great Leap Forward, Hong Kong historian says in new
book
That’s true, the historians and the news were not at least lying. They were
reporting the “truth”.
Let’s also include the number of people that were killed during Korean wars
, Liberating Tibet, Indian wars in 1962, the numerous sacrifices when
building railways, tunnels and bridges. It is pretty easy to kill 78 million
as you asked.
Another interesting question:
How many Indian people died during the democratically-elected Nehru’s rule
at the same time (1959–1961)?
According to the India - Death rate the number of Indians who died during
1959–1961 are: 450million*22.5‰*3 = 30.3 million
Therefore by western standard, there are 30 million Indian people killed by
Nehru right?
—————————————————————————————--
Since you already know how the death roll is calculated. Lets investigate
this number a bit further.
How many Chinese people died naturally if we assume there were no Mao’s bad
policy?
We can calculate this by assuming the normal death rate 10‰ using the
developed country standard.
660million*10‰*3 = 19.8 million
Hence by subtraction, there are 35.7 million - 19.8 million = 15.9 million
people that died unnaturally during the famine. This is roughly what the
official figures reported from the Chinese government.
Yes there are still 15 million people that died probably out of hunger in
three years. That is like 1 in 120 people died every year, just like another
person died out of flu, which you might not notice.
However we still can’t deny that so many people died from the famine, which
could be due to a combination effect of Mao’s policy and natural disasters.
Mao Zedong rose as an excellent militarist and strategist but unfortunately
not a good governor. That’s why Deng Xiaoping rates Mao as “70% merit and
30% damage”. For the damage such as the Great Leap Forward and the Culture
Revolution, as Chinese, we still need to remember the history well, conclude
the lesson and prevent it happening again.
However, it should not be used as source for the west to exploit and
exaggerate too. | C**********e
发帖数: 23303 | | x******g
发帖数: 33885 | 3 百人坑找到没有？
不然就是放屁
【在 z*******4 的大作中提到】
: How did Mao manage to kill ~78 million people?
: Janus Dongye Qimeng
: Janus Dongye Qimeng, Research Scientist at Dark Matter (2019-present)
: Updated Jul 26, 2019
: Firstly let us think about an interesting question:
: How many Chinese people were killed during Xi Jinping’s term?
: The answer is: 59.6 million
: Can you believe it? Yes it is true!
: Consider the death rate of current Chinese population is 7.1‰, one could
: easily calculate this number: 1.4billion * 7.1‰ * 6 years = 59.6 million,
|
|
