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发帖数: 2394 | 1 Industry Voices—Madden: Huawei's inventory bubble soon may burst
by Joe Madden | Aug 7, 2019 10:00am
Huawei MWC19
By May 2019, Huawei had an inventory equivalent to 100,000 additional base
stations using 64T64R MIMO. (Fierce Wireless)
Joe Madden
Somehow, executives at Huawei knew in advance that the U.S. government would
be coming after them. During late 2018, Huawei started ramping up their
purchasing of key semiconductors for their 5G base station platform. By May
2019, the company had shipped at least 30,000 base stations and had
inventory equivalent to 100,000 additional base stations using 64T64R MIMO.
Yes, that’s a pile of 20 million amplifiers and millions of FPGAs. It’s a
commitment of at least $400 million for "extra" inventory, in addition to
their immediate production requirements. (If you are interested in the
detailed semiconductor forecast, click here.)
This is a remarkable contrast with the ZTE situation last year. When ZTE was
cut off from American semiconductors, they were shut down almost
immediately.
Today, Huawei is shipping 5G base stations using their pile of inventory,
and we estimate that they have about four months of runway left before the
plane must fly on its own. They’re scrambling with “Platform C”
implementation, which is a variation on their 5G base station design without
any American components.
Nobody outside of Huawei’s lab has seen a prototype of “Platform C,” but
we have some estimates of performance based on component level benchmarks:
The integration of ASIC and ADC/DAC is a key part of making 64T64R work
without excessive heat. In the short term, a return to a HiSilicon ASIC
without ADC/DAC integration would result in a very hot radio head.
If HiSilicon integrates the ADC/DAC technology that they have access to, we
believe that they’ll have difficulty with EVM and spurious emissions
requirements.
The ARM core is an important part of the HiSilicon product line, and takes
care of some key functions in the radio head design at low power. Can Huawei
either use the ARM core without a license, or somehow duplicate the ARM
core’s function in their own design? We don’t see a straightforward answer.
Other components such as power amplifiers, filters, and fiberoptic
transceivers should be available from Japan and Europe, so the list of truly
critical devices has become shorter.
At a political level, it’s important for the U.S. government to understand
that Huawei is not feeling the pressure in the base station market today.
They can keep running for a few more months… and then the noose will
tighten.
Even when Huawei runs out of inventory of Xilinx RFSoCs, we believe that
they will be able to produce base stations for the domestic Chinese market.
The “Platform C” base station is likely to be klunky, with fans on the
radio head and poor EVM/linearity performance. But, they are selling most of
their 5G base stations to friendly customers in China! So we expect Huawei
to get government waivers for compliance issues, and customer waivers for
ugly fans and other workarounds.
The problem for Huawei will be in their overseas 5G sales. Will Huawei be
able to sell 5G base stations with crappy performance in Germany or Denmark?
No way. That’s where this game will get really interesting. |
t******e
发帖数: 2504 | 2 这正是我说的，如果我是中国电信，会宁愿选中兴通讯，而不会选华为。
至于德国这些SB，要是选了华为，别搞得零备件都没法换了，或换了个台湾产的2流零
备件，出更大的问题。
至于英国，人家与美国是铁盟，英国政府出面买点零备件，应该还是可以的。 |
A*Q
发帖数: 1579 | 3 太小看华为了，另外文章中充满着偏见，好像离开了美国公司地球就不转了，散热和低
效率也比诺基亚和爱立信的好 |
A*Q
发帖数: 1579 | 4 十万个基站的备件，绝大多数基站是中国自己的，欧洲根本用不了多少，如果华为短时
间解决不了问题，就会在某些地方使用自己的方案，就像文章中说的，中国现在就可以
用，所以说是四个月是臆测
: 太小看华为了，另外文章中充满着偏见，好像离开了美国公司地球就不转了，散
热和低
: 效率也比诺基亚和爱立信的好
【在 A*Q 的大作中提到】
: 太小看华为了，另外文章中充满着偏见，好像离开了美国公司地球就不转了，散热和低
: 效率也比诺基亚和爱立信的好
|
A*Q
发帖数: 1579 | 5 再说一遍，用FPGA就是为了能升级，用ASIC既省钱，速度还快，功耗还小，传统一直都
是用ASIC。相对于去年，5G成熟，大批量生产的基站不需要FPGA |
p***r
发帖数: 4702 | 6 十万个全卖国外嘛
国内都用大风扇嗡嗡吹就好了
中国人什么没见过，基站加风扇这种事也值得瞎BB |
t******e
发帖数: 2504 | 7 华为自己可不是这样说的，50个合同，大部分是欧洲。
除非它是撒谎。
【在 A*Q 的大作中提到】
: 十万个基站的备件，绝大多数基站是中国自己的，欧洲根本用不了多少，如果华为短时
: 间解决不了问题，就会在某些地方使用自己的方案，就像文章中说的，中国现在就可以
: 用，所以说是四个月是臆测
:
:
: 太小看华为了，另外文章中充满着偏见，好像离开了美国公司地球就不转了，散
: 热和低
:
: 效率也比诺基亚和爱立信的好
:
|
t******e
发帖数: 2504 | 8 哈哈哈！
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: 十万个全卖国外嘛
: 国内都用大风扇嗡嗡吹就好了
: 中国人什么没见过，基站加风扇这种事也值得瞎BB
|
A*Q
发帖数: 1579 | 9 看基站数量中国一直比欧洲多得多，五十个合同是算的运行商数量，就像澳大利亚一个
国家还没广州市的合同大，基站也少于广州。
: 华为自己可不是这样说的，50个合同，大部分是欧洲。
: 除非它是撒谎。
【在 t******e 的大作中提到】
: 哈哈哈！
|
t******e
发帖数: 2504 | 10 国内还有中兴啊，它是要买多少套零部件就能有多少套。
【在 A*Q 的大作中提到】
: 看基站数量中国一直比欧洲多得多，五十个合同是算的运行商数量，就像澳大利亚一个
: 国家还没广州市的合同大，基站也少于广州。
:
:
: 华为自己可不是这样说的，50个合同，大部分是欧洲。
:
: 除非它是撒谎。
:
|
A*Q
发帖数: 1579 | 11 你抓到一个就特兴奋，这个观点五月份在yahoo finance就看到过，说华为撑不了多久
，就指的是这个，说实在这个根本不是什么瓶颈。华为既然备了这么多货，它就不想着
自己做？这篇文章除了猜测华为的替代产品散热不好之外，没有其它的分析，连华为在
欧洲基站的出货量都没有，就说只能撑四个月。
: 国内还有中兴啊，它是要买多少套零部件就能有多少套。
:
【在 t******e 的大作中提到】
: 国内还有中兴啊，它是要买多少套零部件就能有多少套。
|
t******e
发帖数: 2504 | 12 它当然要自己做了，但做的怎么样，要花多长时间做，都是未知数。
不仅仅是散热，以前华为自己就报道过，说用了Xilink东西，速度提高了40%还是60%，
那还是过去的产品，还不是Xilink和intel新推出的产品。
【在 A*Q 的大作中提到】
: 你抓到一个就特兴奋，这个观点五月份在yahoo finance就看到过，说华为撑不了多久
: ，就指的是这个，说实在这个根本不是什么瓶颈。华为既然备了这么多货，它就不想着
: 自己做？这篇文章除了猜测华为的替代产品散热不好之外，没有其它的分析，连华为在
: 欧洲基站的出货量都没有，就说只能撑四个月。
:
:
: 国内还有中兴啊，它是要买多少套零部件就能有多少套。
:
:
:
|
