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发帖数: 9770 | 1 http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001080331
Washington unnerved by China's ‘military-civil fusion’
中国“军民融合发展”战略是西方政府噩梦的源头，美国尤其担心，中国民企与军方密
切合作正使中国在人工智能军备竞赛中获得优势。
更新于2018年11月22日 07:15 英国《金融时报》 席佳琳 香港，理查德·沃特斯 旧金
山报道
The two men posing for photographs in a Nanjing conference room could not
have more different backgrounds. On one side was Mao Yongqing, head of the
28th Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group, which
develops electronic warfare technology for the People's Liberation Army. On
the other was Yin Shiming, vice-president of cloud computing at Baidu, one
of China's privately owned internet groups.
在南京一会议室拍照的这两个男子背景太不同了。一个是中国电子科技集团公司第二十
八研究所(28th Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group)所长
毛永庆，该机构为解放军开发电子作战技术。另一个是中国民营互联网集团之一百度(
Baidu)云计算业务副总裁尹世明。
Mr Mao is one of a small group of state cadres entrusted by China's leader
Xi Jinping with pushing the military into the era of artificial intelligence
. Mr Yin is an engineer who built his expertise at some of the most
important western tech companies, including Apple.
毛永庆是中国领导人习近平委任的一小批领导干部之一，他们负责推动军队进入人工智
能时代。尹世明是一位工程师，他曾在最重要的一些西方科技公司（包括苹果(Apple)
）积累专业技能。
But at the ceremony this year, they smiled and lifted a red silk scarf to
unveil a bronze plaque that declared CETC and Baidu to be partners in a “
joint lab for intelligent command and control technology” — the facilities
that are used to direct military operations.
但在今年举行的上述仪式上，他们微笑着揭开了盖在一面铜匾上的红绸布，宣布中国电
科与百度在“智能指挥控制技术联合实验室”项目上成为合作伙伴，该技术用来指挥军
事行动。
Mr Mao lauded the deal as an implementation of “military-civil fusion”, an
instruction by the Chinese Communist party that new technologies developed
by the private sector must be shared with the military, which Mr Xi had
written into the constitution last year. Mr Yin said CETC and Baidu should
“work hand in hand to link up computing, data and logic resources to
further advance the application of new generation AI technologies in the
area of defence.”
毛永庆称赞该协议是在实施“军民融合发展”战略，该战略是中国共产党做出的指示，
即民营领域开发的新技术必须与军方共享，习近平去年将这个战略写进了党章。尹世明
表示，中国电科和百度应该携手致力于连通计算、数据和逻辑资源，进一步推进新一代
人工智能技术在国防领域的应用。
The Chinese drive for this form of “military-civil fusion” is the source
of nightmares for western governments and one of the motivations for the
increasingly confrontational approach US President Donald Trump is taking
towards China.
中国提出的这种“军民融合发展”战略是西方政府噩梦的源头，也是美国总统唐纳德·
特朗普(Donald Trump)对中国采取越来越对抗性措施的动机之一。
While old-fashioned warships are deployed in the South China Sea, the armed
forces of both countries are also investing heavily in a new generation of
weapons that they hope will give them a military edge in the coming years.
The systems they are working on, including various forms of semi-autonomous
weapons, aim to take advantage of recent advances in robotics, quantum
computing and AI.
尽管南中国海部署的是传统战舰，但中美两国的武装力量也在大举投资新一代武器，他
们希望这些武器在未来多年赋予自己军事优势。他们正努力开发的系统（包括多种形式
的半自动武器）旨在利用机器人、量子计算以及人工智能领域近年的进展。
The fear in Washington is that the close collaboration between China's
private sector and the PLA, including allegedly underhand efforts by the
state to get hold of new US technologies, is helping give Beijing an
advantage in this incipient arms race.
华盛顿的担心是，中国民营领域与中国军方的密切合作（包括中国政府据称为获取美国
新技术而暗中做出的行为），正帮助在这场刚刚开始的军备竞赛中赋予北京方面优势。
In a speech last month which crystallised the toughening US approach, Mike
Pence, vice-president, accused the Chinese authorities of stealing “cutting
-edge military blueprints” and said “Beijing has prioritised capabilities
to erode America's military advantages on land, at sea, in the air and in
space”.
在上月一次宣示美方姿态转向强硬的演讲中，美国副总统迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)指责
中国政府窃取“尖端的军事蓝图”，并表示，“北京方面把削弱美国在陆地、海上、空
中以及太空的军事优势的能力列为优先任务。”
An Australian think-tank warned last week that China had sent thousands of
scientists affiliated with its armed forces to western universities — many
disguising their military connection — as part of its effort to build a web
of research collaboration that could boost Beijing's military technology
development.
澳大利亚一智库最近警告，中国向西方大学派出数千名与中国军方有关联的科学家（很
多人掩盖了他们与军方的关系），这是打造一个研究合作网络的努力的一部分，这方面
的努力有望促进中国军事技术的发展。
As a result the AI research world, which has developed over the past couple
of decades in an environment of international co-operation and free flow of
ideas, is coming under the sort of scrutiny normally reserved for the
weapons industry because of its potential use in both military and civilian
spheres.
其结果是，过去20年一直在国际合作和自由交流创意的环境下发展起来的人工智能研究
领域，正受到通常只针对武器行业的那种密切关注，因为它在民用和军用领域都有潜在
用途。
“The dual use of this [AI] technology is perfectly aligned,” says Sean
Gourley, chief executive of Primer, an AI-related start-up based in San
Francisco. “Image recognition can be used for selfies or for targeting.”
“（人工智能）技术的用途很容易转换，”总部位于旧金山的人工智能相关初创企业
Primer的首席执行官肖恩·古尔利(Sean Gourley)表示，“图像识别可以用来自拍，也
可用作目标识别。”
The Trump administration is actively seeking policy tools that would allow
it to monitor and control the flow of potentially dual-use technologies out
of the US. In a speech last month, Christopher Ford, assistant secretary of
state for international security and non-proliferation, warned that
technologies that are transferred to China by private companies could be
used to threaten US national security.
特朗普政府正积极寻找政策工具，以便监控可能具有双重用途的技术流出美国。在上月
的一次演讲中，美国负责国际安全和不扩散事务的助理国务卿克里斯托弗·福特(
Christopher Ford)警告称，被私营公司转移到中国的技术，可能被用来威胁美国国家
安全。
“Based on the explicit premises of the [Chinese Communist party's military-
civil fusion] strategy, if any given technology is in any way accessible to
China, and officials there believe it can be of any use to the country's
military…one can be quite sure that the technology will be made available
for those purposes,” he said.
他表示：“根据（中国共产党的军民融合战略的）明确前提，如果某种技术被中国以任
何方式获取，而且中国官员认为它可能对军方有用……那么人们就可以相当有把握地说
，这项技术将用于那些用途。”
The controversy over AI is part of a broader concern about reciprocity in
dealings with China. US officials say that while the American economy is
open to outsiders, large parts of the Chinese economy are shut to foreigners.
围绕人工智能的争议，反映出外界对于与中国打交道的互惠性的更广泛担忧。美国官员
表示，尽管美国经济对外来者开放，但中国很大一部分经济领域仍对外国人关闭。
AI has developed in a different way from many earlier technologies as it is
often explored in open collaboration between researchers using widely shared
software tools.
人工智能的发展方式与很多之前的技术不同，研究人员经常利用广泛分享的软件工具，
公开合作研究这项技术。
In the process, scientists and companies in both China and the west have
become interwoven. Large numbers of young Chinese study and work in related
disciplines in Europe and America. As many as 25 per cent of graduate
students in science, technology, engineering and maths in the US are Chinese
citizens, according to an estimate from the Pentagon. Western technology
companies are heavily invested in China and Chinese firms have been a
growing source of funding for AI start-ups in Silicon Valley.
在此过程中，中国和西方的科学家和企业早已形成你中有我、我中有你的格局。大量年
轻的中国人在欧洲和美国的相关领域学习和工作。根据美国国防部的估算，在美国学习
科学、技术、工程和数学的研究生中，中国公民的比例高达25%。西方科技公司在中国
大举投资，同时越来越多的中国企业成为硅谷人工智能初创企业的融资来源。
Analysts argue that this co-operation is often beneficial to both sides and
that if the US wants to retain its technological leadership, it will need to
continue attracting talent and funds from overseas, especially China.
分析人士辩称，这种合作往往有利于双方，如果美国希望保持技术领先地位，它需要继
续吸引来自海外的人才和资金，特别是中国。
But they also point out that this collaborative relationship is unequal:
western societies are generally liberal and open, while in the Chinese
system individual researchers and private companies can frequently be made a
tool of the state — and the military.
“The entanglement in AI creates a dual-use dilemma,” says Elsa Kania, a
fellow at the Centre for a New American Security. “Our open and liberal
societies facilitate the development of AI, but the Chinese state's single-
minded pursuit of these technologies puts this same openness and freedom at
risk.”
但他们也指出，这种合作关系是不平等的：西方社会总体上是自由和开放的，而在中国
体制下，个人研究者和私营企业可能经常会变成政府乃至军队的工具。
In its attempt to develop new high-tech weapons, the Pentagon is trying to
work more closely with Silicon Valley, setting up a west coast office three
years ago called the Defence Innovation Unit to help it engage with start-
ups. However, it cannot demand the same loyalty of private companies that
Beijing enjoys. Earlier this year, Google said it would not continue an AI
project with the Pentagon after protests by members of its staff about the
idea of applying the new technologies to weapons.
“人工智能领域的交织制造了一个双重用途难题，”新美国安全中心(Center for a
New American Security)研究员埃尔莎·卡尼亚(Elsa Kania)表示，“我们开放且自由
的社会促进了人工智能的发展，但中国政府对这类技术的执意追求使这种开放和自由面
临风险。”
A study published last week by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a
think-tank partly funded by Canberra's defence ministry, found that the PLA
had sent up to 3,000 scientists to universities in western countries during
the past decade, sometimes under false pretences, to extract knowhow often
in AI-related disciplines that could then be applied to the development of
new military capabilities.
为开发新型高科技武器，美国国防部正试图与硅谷更密切合作，3年前创建了一个西海
岸办事处，名为国防创新处(Defense Innovation Unit)，帮助其与初创企业接触。然
而，它不能要求私营企业表现出中国企业对北京方面的那种忠诚。今年早些时候，谷歌
(Google)表示不会继续与美国国防部合作的一个人工智能项目，此前该公司员工抗议将
这类新技术应用于武器系统。
Beijing has also made its mark with massive funding of AI start-ups in
Silicon Valley. Chinese entities funded 10 to 16 per cent of all venture
capital deals between 2015 and 2017, according to the Defence Innovation
Unit. Some of these investments come with board representation and eventual
technology transfer deals, the analysts say.
由澳大利亚国防部提供部分经费的智库——澳大利亚战略政策研究所(Australian
Strategic Policy Institute)最近公布的一项研究发现，过去10年，中国军方向西方
国家的大学派出多达3000名科学家，有时使用虚假的理由，目的经常是在人工智能相关
领域获取专门技术，这些技术可以被用来发展新的军事能力。
Chinese companies have also been involved in a series of corporate
partnerships that could provide insights helpful to the military. Baidu has
been on the forefront of such collaboration with an artificial intelligence
lab in Silicon Valley established in 2014. Huawei, the telecoms equipment
maker, promised $1m for AI research at the University of California,
Berkeley. Microsoft has been engaged in AI-related research and development
in China for more than a decade.
中国政府还通过大举资助硅谷人工智能初创企业大展身手。根据美国国防创新处的数据
，2015年至2017年，中资实体为10%至16%的风投交易提供了资金。分析人士表示，其中
一些投资附带董事会席位和最终的技术转让协议。
CETC has partnered with the University of Technology in Sydney on AI
projects. Australian officials say this raises concerns as the Chinese state
company is exploring — for example in its new joint lab with Baidu — how
to put AI to use in command and control so that algorithms, rather than
human soldiers, could make battlefield decisions.
The role of private companies means that industry “is moving centre stage
in geopolitics”, says Su Tzu-yun, a senior official at the Institute for
National Defence and Security Research, a think-tank backed by Taiwan's
defence ministry and National Security Council. “Twenty years ago, China's
impact was the China price, but in the future, it will be the China specs,”
he says, suggesting that Beijing's role is changing from a manufacturer of
cheap goods to a creator of global standards.
中资企业还参与了一系列可能为军方提供有用技术的企业合作。百度在这类企业合作方
面走在前列，该公司2014年在硅谷建立了一个人工智能实验室。电信设备制造商华为(
Huawei)已承诺向加州大学伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)的人工
智能研究投入100万美元。微软(Microsoft)在中国从事人工智能相关研发已有10多年。
Rattled by the challenge from China, the US has started to look for new ways
to slow the flow of technology. In the past few months, the Trump
administration has started to overhaul regulatory tools that could help rein
in China's adaptation of western technologies for military use.
中国电科还在人工智能项目上与悉尼科技大学(University of Technology in Sydney)
建立合作伙伴关系。澳大利亚官员称，这引发了担忧，因为这家中国国有企业正在探索
（其与百度新建的联合实验室就是一例）如何将人工智能应用于指挥和控制，让算法（
而非军人）做出战场决策。
Mr Ford says technology policy has tried to enforce a clear demarcation
between civil and military use of products. “Military-civilian fusion, of
course, makes a hash of such distinctions: [its] very point is to ensure the
free flow of technology and material between civilian and military
enterprises,” he says. The US now needs “new approaches and procedures
that are alive to the magnitude of the tech-transfer problem as it exists
with China”.
在台湾，由国防部和国安会支持的智库——国防安全研究院(INDSR)的高级官员苏紫云(
Su Tzu-yun)表示，民营企业的角色意味着这一行业“正在向地缘政治的舞台中心移动
”。他说：“20年前，中国的影响力是中国价格，但未来的影响力将是中国规格。”此
言暗示，中国的角色正在从廉价商品制造者转变为全球标准的制定者。
Earlier this year, the administration broadened the mandate of the Committee
on Foreign Investment in the US beyond outright acquisitions to give it
oversight of minority and early-stage investments. It even introduced a “
catch-all” provision that could allow the committee to block any Chinese
investment in Silicon Valley.
The US is also putting together a list of key military components and
acquisition programmes that are vulnerable to technology theft or sabotage.
对中国的挑战感到不安的美国政府，已开始寻找新的方法来减慢技术流动。过去几个月
，特朗普政府已开始彻底重审监管工具，这些工具可能有助于遏制中国将西方技术用于
军事用途。
The next, and significantly more difficult, step is modernising export
controls. Under the Export Control Reform Act which became law in August,
the US commerce department is set to begin asking for public comments on
which emerging technologies should not be available for transfer abroad.
助理国务卿福特表示，技术政策曾试图在产品的民用和军用之间划定明确界线。他说：
“当然，军民融合混淆了这些区分：（其）根本目的就是确保技术和材料在民用和军工
企业之间自由流动。”美国现在需要“与对华技术转移问题的严重性相称的新做法和新
程序”。
“First they will go after robotics, electric vehicles, AI and internet of
things stuff,” says a senior industry official in Washington involved in
the discussions. But industry experts say the administration's target of
having a list by the end of the year is far too ambitious.
今年早些时候，美国政府扩大了美国外国投资委员会(CFIUS)的职权——除了审查直接
收购，还被赋予了对少数股权投资和初期投资的监管权。甚至还引入了一项“笼统”条
款，使该委员会可以阻止中国在硅谷的任何投资。
“They really don’t know what emerging technologies to go after and how,”
says the industry expert.
美国还列出了一份易受技术偷窃或破坏影响的关键军事部件和收购计划清单。
The task is slightly easier for so-called foundational technologies — more
mature areas with a key role in national security, which the administration
plans to tackle next year.
下一步（也是更困难的一步）是使出口管制现代化。根据今年8月成为法律的《出口管
制改革法》(Export Control Reform Act)，美国商务部将开始就哪些新兴技术不应向
海外转移征求公众意见。
“If you really want to slow China down in its push for dual-use technology,
the key is not export controls on AI itself. It's the precision tool makers
for semiconductors, that's the chokepoint,” says one US diplomat.
Observers believe Washington could opt for limiting export of machinery used
for spotting faults in wafer manufacturing, high-end equipment made by US
companies Allied Materials and LAM.
华盛顿一位参与相关讨论的高级业界官员说：“首先，他们将把矛头对准机器人、电动
汽车、人工智能、物联网等等，”但业内专家表示，特朗普政府在年底前拟出一份清单
的目标不切实际。
For that approach to work, however, Washington would need to consult with
governments in Japan and some European countries that also have companies
making such machinery. Diplomats see this as a big challenge as long as Mr
Trump has so many disagreements over trade with countries other than China.
该业内专家表示：“他们真的不知道该去追踪哪些新兴技术，也不知道如何追踪。”
Mr Gourley, whose company is backed by In-Q-Tel, a venture capital group
linked to the CIA, says that the easiest part of AI technology for the US
government to limit via export restrictions would be hardware, especially
chips that were “optimised for particular jobs”.
对于所谓的基础技术（在国家安全方面扮演关键角色的更成熟的领域），这一任务稍微
容易一些；特朗普政府计划明年对付这类技术。
However, the hardest area would be the algorithms that are at the heart of
machine learning. Export controls that apply to software have not “
traditionally been applied outside of cryptography software and weapons
design software”, he says. It might be possible “to expand this to include
AI libraries — though because of the generality of AI algorithms it may be
hard to draw a line between military and non-military applications”.
美国一位外交官称：“如果你真的想减慢中国在两用技术上的推进速度，关键不是对人
工智能本身的出口管制，而是对用于半导体的精密工具进行管制，这才是要害。”观察
人士认为，华盛顿方面可能选择限制出口用于检测晶圆制造故障的机器，这些高端设备
由美国Allied Materials和LAM两家企业生产。
China sees AI as essential to warfare
然而，为了让这种做法有效，华盛顿方面需要与日本政府和一些欧洲国家——他们也拥
有制造此类机器的企业——进行磋商。外交人士认为，只要特朗普与中国以外的国家在
贸易上还存在那么多分歧，这就会是一大挑战。
If official pronouncements are to be believed, the People's Liberation Army
is racing to leapfrog the US military with the help of artificial
intelligence.
古尔利的公司背后的支持者是与美国中央情报局(CIA)存在关联的风投集团In-Q-Tel。
他表示，在人工智能技术领域，美国政府最容易通过出口限制来卡住的环节是硬件，尤
其是“为特定工作而优化”的芯片。
Military Science, a Chinese periodical on military strategy and doctrine,
anticipates a transition from “informationised” warfare, where the
military operates using IT, to what is refers to as “intelligentised”
warfare, with AI playing a key role. Beijing's New Generation AI Development
Plan, unveiled in July last year, envisions the country becoming the world'
s AI leader by 2030, and explicitly lists defence as one of the areas of
application.
然而，最难限制的领域是机器学习的核心——算法。他表示，适用于软件的出口管制传
统上从未“应用于加密软件和武器设计软件以外的”软件。或许可以“扩展这一应用范
畴，纳入人工智能库——尽管由于人工智能算法的通用性，可能很难在军事和非军事应
用之间划清界限”。
But despite the rhetoric, the Chinese armed forces’ experiments with AI are
only just beginning. Analysts believe that while Chinese military
strategists are frequently exploring and debating the potential impact of AI
on weaponry and doctrine, the PLA leadership has yet to reach consensus on
the issue.
中国将人工智能视为不可或缺的战争要素
“So far, their main interests appear to be in harnessing AI for command and
control, and to use augmented and virtual reality to make exercises more
real — an important feature for a military that has essentially not fought
since the [1979 Sino-Vietnamese war],” says Elsa Kania,” says Elsa Kania,
a fellow at the Washington-based Centre for a New American Security.
如果官方声明可信的话，那么解放军正在人工智能的帮助下努力赶超美军。
Regarding weapons systems, PLA scientists are looking into AI-enabled
processing of images collected by drones as well as data mining for missile
target recognition and navigation. Ms Kania observes particularly strong PLA
interest in autonomous weapons.
《中国军事科学》（中国出版的关于军事战略和军事学说的期刊）预计，未来世界将由
“信息化”战争（利用信息技术指挥军事行动）向“智能化”战争（人工智能将在军事
行动中发挥关键作用）过渡。去年7月北京方面公布的《新一代人工智能发展规划》(
New Generation AI Development Plan)，设想到2030年中国将成为全球人工智能领域
的领头羊，并明确将国防列为人工智能的应用领域之一。
This area of unmanned warfare, some believe, will be key in the race to
prevent what is ever more frequently described as an AI military arms race
from getting out of hand.
但是，尽管有这些表态，但中国武装部队在人工智能方面的实验才刚刚开始。分析人士
认为，虽然中国军事战略家经常探讨和辩论人工智能对武器和军事学说的潜在影响，但
解放军领导层尚未就这个问题形成共识。
“到目前为止，他们的主要兴趣似乎是利用人工智能进行指挥和控制，并利用增强现实
和虚拟现实让演习更加逼真——这对于一支自1979年中越战争以来基本上没有打过仗的
军队来说是一项重要功能，”新美国安全中心的卡尼亚表示。
在武器系统方面，解放军的科学家正在研究用人工智能来处理由无人机收集的图像，并
以导弹制导和目标识别为目的进行数据挖掘。卡尼亚发现，解放军对自主武器的兴趣格
外强烈。
一些人认为，在防止日益被形容为人工智能军备竞赛的局面失控的努力中，无人作战领
域将是关键。
译者/何黎 |
