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发帖数: 2469 | 1 China cutting rare earth output, unnerving global manufacturers
Reuters Reuters•October 25, 2018
By Barbara Lewis and Ernest Scheyder
LONDON/HOUSTON (Reuters) - The Chinese government is limiting domestic
production of rare earth minerals in the second half of the year, a move
likely to crimp international exports and send prices for the critical
materials higher, according to data from Adamas Intelligence.
China is by far the world's largest producer and consumer of rare earths, a
group of 17 elements used to make electric vehicles and consumer electronics
. The move is already forcing manufacturers to scour the globe for
alternative supplies.
For the second half of 2018, China's quota for rare earth separation and
smelting has been cut 36 percent, an attempt to better control the market,
according to Adamas, a research firm that closely tracks the rare earths
industry.
China's decision to limit domestic rare earth production to 45,000 tonnes
for the second half of 2018 - announced in August and the lowest in more
than five years - provides only enough supply for China's domestic buyers,
according to Adamas.
The semi-annual quota had risen to 70,000 tonnes in the first half of 2018,
40 percent higher than the first half of 2017. But that move was largely
seen by analysts and electronics manufacturers as a step to legitimize black
market production, with Chinese manufacturing consuming most of that supply.
While China is likely to attend to its own needs before exporting, increased
exports would require the country to draw on already-low inventories of
neodymium (Nd), prasesodymium (Pr) and dysprosium (Dy), used in electric
vehicle motors, said Ryan Castilloux of Adamas.
Prices for one key rare earth mineral, PrNd Oxide, could increase by 10
percent to 50 percent within the next 12 months, and is on track to double
in price within next five years as demand outpaces supply, Castilloux said.
Chinese exports typically supply around 80 percent of the globe's rare earth
needs, about 156,000 tonnes annually. Still, exports tend to oscillate
wildly from month to month.
In September, for example, rare earth exports jumped 15 percent from August
levels, despite slipping earlier in the year, according to Chinese
government data.
The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry
of Natural Resources did not respond to faxed requests for comment.
WTO FIGHT
China was accused in 2012 of manipulating rare earths exports after it put
quotas on overseas shipments in 2010.
In 2012, the United States, the European Union and Japan filed a complaint
with the World Trade Organization accusing China of slashing exports to hold
down prices for its own manufacturers and to pressure global firms to move
to China.
China lost the case in 2014 after the WTO rejected its appeal and it lifted
the export quotas.
The U.S. military is worried about China's dominance of the rare earths
market, calling it a "significant and growing risk," according to a Pentagon
study released earlier this month.
"As they have this standoff with China, eventually they (the U.S.) will need
to find alternate sources," said Helen Lau, a metals and mining analyst at
Argonaut Securities in Hong Kong, referring to the trade dispute between
China and the United States.
However, Lau indicated in a research note on Thursday that the change in the
quota was likely tied to the closures of illegal mines in Jiangxi province
last month.
"We are not surprised at the quota cuts as China already started a crackdown
on illegal mining in Jiangxi province that started in September," she wrote.
Meanwhile Japanese electronics maker Panasonic Corp told Reuters said it is
moving to find fresh supply.
"We have been diversifying our procurement channels, building partnerships
with our suppliers and working to reduce the use of rare earths," Panasonic
said in a statement to Reuters.
MALAYSIAN SUPPLY
Outside of China, Australia's Lynas Corp is the biggest producer of PrNd
oxides and the second-largest globally. The company processes rare earth
ores from Australia at a plant in Malaysia.
During the quarter that ended in September, PrNd production climbed to a
record 1,579 tonnes, the company said in its results on Thursday.
Chief Executive Amanda Lacaze said that demand from Japanese customers was "
absolutely buoyant," in a call with analysts after the report. | r*******Z
发帖数: 1 | 2 美国其实一直限制对华铼金属出口的。
稀土出口污染太严重了。早应该叫停了。 |
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