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发帖数: 33885 | 1 他解释为什么跟中国打贸易战将会是一场悲剧：
A US-China Trade War Would Be a Tragedy
The markets’ reactions to newly imposed tariffs and, more importantly,
the possibility of a US-China trade war convey appropriate tip-of-the-
iceberg concerns of what a trade war would mean for the US, China, and world
economies and markets. To me, these concerns are reminiscent of the markets
’ first reactions to the possibility of a military war with North Korea—i.
e., the seemingly aggressive posture of Donald Trump conjures up pictures of
war that are very scary, so the markets react, but that doesn’t mean that
such a war is likely (at least in the near term).
While I’m not a geopolitical analyst, here’s my thinking based on the
time I’ve spent in both the US and China. Take it with a grain of salt.
The Chinese way of negotiating is more through harmony than through
confrontation, until they are pushed to have a confrontation, at which time
they become fierce enemies. They are more long-term and strategic than
Americans, who are more short-term and confrontational, so how they approach
their conflicts is different. The Chinese approach to conflict is more like
playing Go without direct attack and the American approach is more like
playing chess with direct attack. The Chinese prefer to negotiate by finding
those things that the people they are negotiating with really want and that
the Chinese are comfortable giving up, in exchange for those people they
are negotiating with doing the same. Because there are now many such things
that can be exchanged to help both parties (e.g., opening the financial
sector in China, Chinese investment in the US, agricultural product imports
to China, etc.), there is plenty of room for there to be big win-wins.
For these reasons, it’s in the Trump administration’s interests to
make clear what it wants most and, if they can’t do that, to not be
aggressive until they figure out what beneficial exchanges are. Of course,
trade is extremely complex because there are all sorts of interconnections
globally, so being clear without adequate time and exchanges of thinking isn
’t easy.
However, as important as the real trade issues is politics, which is
especially important at this very political moment in both countries (i.e.,
ahead of “elections”). Politics can make politicians act tougher than they
should be if they were operating solely in their country’s best interests
because looking tough with a foreign enemy builds domestic support.
Politically for Donald Trump, two of his three biggest strongman promises
were 1) to build the wall with Mexico and 2) to reduce the trade deficit
with China, by getting tough with them both. Xi Jinping has similarly made
commitments to be strong in dealing with adversaries, including the US.
For these reasons, it seems to me that good deals are to be had for both
countries, while a trade war has the risk of tit-for-tat escalations that
could have very harmful trade and capital flow implications for both
countries and for the world. At the same time, I think and hope that both
sides know this, and I believe that what is happening now is more for
political show than for real threatening. The actual impacts of the tariffs
that have been announced on the US-China trade balance will be very small.
If tariffs are imposed as indicated, I would hope and expect the Chinese
response to be small and symbolic so that both sides will have rattled their
sabers without actually inflicting much harm. What will come after that
will be more important. I wouldn’t expect it to amount to much anytime soon
. If on the other hand we see an escalating series of tit for tats, then we
should worry. |
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