d**********3
发帖数: 14 | 1 https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/04/25/commentary/japan-commentary/
indo-japan-rail-project-boondoggle/#.WuczGIjOWUk
由于印度政府混乱的管理产生的飙升的成本让人们感觉到焦虑。这让日本政府和企业都
陷入了泥沼。
工程总成本计划为1.08万亿卢比（1.8万亿日元）。全部成本中，用于实际建设工作的
8800亿卢比(1.46万亿日元)由日本政府提供日元贷款，年利率为0.1%，期限为50年。
大概是因为印度认为这条铁路线将要由日本人几乎免费建造。一个印度官员私下吐露日
元贷款如果考虑到贬值的话，几乎就是个“礼物”
泥沼1 ：（飙升的征地成本和极度缓慢的进展 ） 政府和地主的最近达成一款“Bullet
Train”协议， 可能会导致”unrestrained escalation of the farmers’ demands
“。 文章估算成本会提高三倍。
泥沼2 ：（印度这种随心所欲的变更条款） 新德里现在已经告诉东京高速铁路项目提
供服务的日期由之前在启动仪式上一致同意的2023提前一年。这对日本来说完全是个突
袭。
The construction of a new high-speed railway line in India is scheduled to
officially get underway this year, connecting the commercial capital of
Mumbai and the industrial city of Ahmedabad in the western part of the
country. The project to build the line fashioned after Japan’s shinkansen
system is a product of an agreement between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and
his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, in their December 2015 summit.
Yet anxiety is already rising due to soaring costs brought about by
haphazard policies of the Indian government, leading both the Japanese
government and Japanese firms to start getting bogged down.
On Sept. 14 last year, less than two years after the summit, a
groundbreaking ceremony was held in Ahmedabad, attended by both Abe and Modi
. The total cost of the project is set at 1.08 trillion rupees (about ￥1.8
trillion). Of that total, 880 billion rupees (about ￥1.46 trillion)
earmarked for the actual construction work is to be funded by yen-
denominated loans from the Japanese government with an annual interest rate
of 0.1 percent and repayable in 50 years.
The terms of the loans, which a Japanese Foreign Ministry official said are
“exceptionally generous,” show how infatuated Tokyo is with the project.
Indeed, Modi said at the groundbreaking ceremony that Japan was providing
India with funds at a near zero interest rate.
Maybe India feels that the railway line will be constructed by Japan
virtually for free. An Indian official confided that the yen-denominated
loans come close to a “gift” if inflation is taken into consideration.
In mid-March, meanwhile, more than 60,000 farmers took to the streets in
Mumbai, which is in the state of Maharashtra, demanding full implementation
of the promise made by the Maharashtra state government to forgive their
debts and also seeking higher purchase prices for agricultural products.
The state government of Maharashtra gave into the farmers’ demands and
promised full cancelation of all of their debts. Why was the state
government so generous to the farmers even at the risk of creating a moral
hazard? The answer is simple. There will be general elections next year and
the Modi regime cannot afford to antagonize farmers, who account for 60
percent of the nation’s eligible voters. And the farmers know that the
government cannot ignore their demands.
Noteworthy is the fact that the agreement reached between the state
government and the farmers included a provision on the “Bullet Train,”
which stipulates that the wishes of landowners will be fully taken into
account in connection with the construction of the high-speed railway. This
vaguely worded provision could lead to an unrestrained escalation of the
farmers’ demands when it comes to the purchase of their land for the
project.
Indeed, land acquisition for the project is progressing at an extremely slow
pace. Because India is a democratic country, the government cannot forcibly
take property away from its citizens as China is doing. When the high-speed
railway project plan was started, earthen embankments were to be built
along 322 km, or 64 percent, of the total 505 km of tracks between Mumbai
and Ahmedabad.
Although elevated railroads were originally planned to cover 144 km, or 28
percent of the total, the elevated portions have been made much longer and
the embankments much shorter. India made the changes on the grounds that it
is too time-consuming to purchase land for embankments and that embankments
will carry an inherent danger of trains colliding with people and cattle.
But the real reason for the changes was that since purchase of land is not
covered by the yen-denominated loans from Japan and is supposed to be
carried out by the Indian side, India wanted to reduce its costs.
Ultimately about 90 percent of the entire railway line will be elevated. But
this change has not been reported by the media. Strangely, the total cost
of the project remains unchanged from 2015 at ￥1.8 trillion even though a
railway journalist points out that changing from an embankment to an
elevated railroad will more than triple the construction cost. A staff
member of a Japanese trading firm stationed in India says that the change
will fatten the total cost by hundreds of billions of yen. Yet no such
figures have been made public.
Arbitrary changes by India are not limited to this. New Delhi has now told
Tokyo that the date for starting the operation of the high-speed train
services will be moved up by one year from the original target date of 2023
as agreed on at the groundbreaking event. This came as a total surprise to
Japan even though local media quoted a high-ranking Indian government
official as saying that the train services will start in 2022 to mark the
75th anniversary of India’s independence.
When Keiichi Ishii, the minister of land, infrastructure, transport and
tourism, visited India last December, the Indian side is said to have hinted
at a partial opening of the projected railway line.
Since the high-speed train project is a showpiece project for the Modi
administration, India arbitrarily changes plans, unmindful of the situation
faced by Japan.
Accelerating the speed of construction will naturally entail additional
costs. It appears all but certain that India will ask Japan to shoulder the
increased costs as a matter of course. If the aforementioned agreement with
the farmers is implemented arbitrarily, there will be a chance that India
will ask for changes in the railway route as well as for changes in the
specifications of the railway system. The construction costs will most
likely rise, and there is no chance that they will go down.
One of the reasons Japan was able to grab the contract for the Indian
project despite stiff competition with other countries was the safety proven
by its shinkansen system, which is said to be the “world’s best.” But a
major crack found last December on a bogie frame of a shinkansen car could
shake the system’s reputation for safety.
。
An official of the Japanese transport ministry has expressed fear that this
incident might lead India to sound out other countries about manufacturing
the rolling stock or demand more use of Indian products for the project.
Japan offered extraordinarily favorable loan terms to India for constructing
the Mumbai-Ahmedabad railway line because it expected that Japanese
companies would be able to win similar deals for speed-train railway
projects covering all of the subcontinent. But the aforementioned railway
journalist says that India has not made any decision on other projects and
that there is a high possibility those projects will be awarded to Europe or
China.
Earlier this year it was reported that a joint venture including Obayashi
Corp., a major Japanese general contractor, will likely win an order to
build a high-speed railway section near Ahmedabad. That means that Japan has
already gone beyond the point of no return as far as the Mumbai-Ahmedabad
project is concerned.
At the groundbreaking ceremony last September, Abe said both the private and
public sectors of Japan will work hard together for the good of India. But
Japan now faces the possibility of wastefully pouring large sums of Japanese
taxpayers’ money into the project. That would be the price that the
Japanese people would be paying for their government committing itself to a
project without fully considering the possible consequences. | g********x
发帖数: 7361 | 2 本来日本也没想真心实意的给阿三搞基建，揽下这个项目纯属给中国使绊子，所以黄了
是必然的。想当年，中俄输油管道项目，日本就使劲的使绊子，以至于项目拖了好几年
，直到毛子认清了日本的真实意图，才下定决心与中国合作。 | d*******g
发帖数: 8992 | | d**********3
发帖数: 14 | 4 这篇文章是日本人用英文写的。 自然是写给印度人看的。
这篇文章出来几天后， 魔笛突然非正式访华。 大家都在做戏 | D*****i
发帖数: 8922 | | p*******9
发帖数: 1860 | 6 中国人谁给印度搞基建，谁就是民族罪人！
习大大千万不要被某些小人欺骗，给印度任何援助，遗害国家民族。 |
|
