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发帖数: 2680 | 1 China's yuan never suffered sharp fall overnight
Rumors swirled on social media on Tuesday that China's currency dropped
sharply in overnight trade, but the purported move may have been an isolated
hiccup from some providers.
Some currency data providers were showing that the yuan tumbled, with the
dollar fetching as much as 7.49 yuan in overnight trade. It wasn't clear if
the data were indicating the offshore yuan or the onshore currency, but the
onshore currency does not trade overnight. That would have been an 8.8
percent rise for the currency pair from the onshore close of 6.8830,
according to Reuters data.
China's central bank does not allow the currency to move more than 2 percent
from its daily fixing in onshore trade. While policymakers can not closely
control offshore trade of the currency, it usually remains relatively close
to its onshore counterpart.
Data charts on Google and currency-data provider and money transfer service
XE showed the short-lived blip. Google confirmed that the figure was a bug
and that it was fixing it. In its Finance section, Google's disclaimers
state that it can't guarantee the accuracy of foreign-exchange rates and
advises confirming rates before making transactions.
An email to XE sent outside office hours wasn't immediately returned.
Dow Jones reported that U.K.-based brokerage and data provider ICAP was the
source for the data. A call to ICAP's Singapore office went unanswered and
it didn't immediately return an emailed request for comment.
Google's data chart indicated that the data source was data provider SIX
Financial Information. A call to SIX's Singapore office went unanswered and
an emailed request for comment wasn't immediately returned.
Analysts generally indicated to CNBC that they hadn't seen any sign of the
drop. Reuters data didn't show anything close, indicating that the offshore
dollar/yuan's high for the year was at 6.9650 and the onshore yuan's was at
6.9210.
Sean Yokota, head of Asia strategy at SEB, told CNBC that people were
sharing a screenshot on Chinese social media platform WeChat showing a
mispricing in Google data showing the dollar was fetching 7.4 yuan.
He noted that China's policymakers would likely want to avoid a devaluation
of the currency. Indeed, analysts have recently noted that policymakers have
appeared to slow the yuan's fall against the dollar as the greenback surged
since the surprise U.S. election win of Donald Trump.
Similarly, Richard Yetsenga, chief economist at ANZ, told CNBC that while
there was a lot of chatter, it would be "quite dramatic" if the 7.48 figure
were to turn out to be accurate, but he added that it was hard to imagine at
this stage.
The apparent hiccup didn't appear to affect trading in the currency on
Tuesday. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan midpoint at 6.8575
against the dollar on Tuesday, suggesting a stronger yuan compared with a
fix of 6.887 on Monday.
In onshore trade, the dollar was fetching 6.8654 yuan at 10:23 a.m. HK/SIN,
the Chinese currency's strongest against the greenback since mid-November.
Offshore, the dollar was fetching 6.8691 yuan.
In the wake of the Trump win, the yuan fell to nearly eight year lows
against the dollar, touching its weakest since at least January 2009, during
the global financial crisis, with analysts suggesting the slide had more to
do with the dollar's strength. Some noted that, based on currency movements
within the trade-weighted basket, policymakers appeared to be supporting
the yuan somewhat.
The Chinese currency likely received another fillip from a surge on Monday
in the cost of borrowing the offshore yuan. Overnight Hibor, or the Hong
Kong interbank offered rate, for the offshore yuan jumped to 12.38 percent
on Monday from 7.16 percent on Friday. On Tuesday, the rate retraced some of
the surge, to around 6.17 percent.
Monday's sharp rise made it more expensive for traders to short the Chinese
currency.
Stephen Innes, senior trader at OANDA, said in a note Monday that the higher
rates were discouraging short-term yuan trades.
"Dealers are in little mood to challenge state-owned banks dollar-selling
flows, nor the exorbitant short-term yuan funding rates," signaling that the
market was conceding the dollar/yuan pair's top was likely at 6.90 through
year-end, he said, adding that traders were now looking to other vehicles to
play a negative regional bias. | T********N
发帖数: 2680 | 2 蜜柚定调了
年底人刀6.9
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【在 T********N 的大作中提到】
: China's yuan never suffered sharp fall overnight
: Rumors swirled on social media on Tuesday that China's currency dropped
: sharply in overnight trade, but the purported move may have been an isolated
: hiccup from some providers.
: Some currency data providers were showing that the yuan tumbled, with the
: dollar fetching as much as 7.49 yuan in overnight trade. It wasn't clear if
: the data were indicating the offshore yuan or the onshore currency, but the
: onshore currency does not trade overnight. That would have been an 8.8
: percent rise for the currency pair from the onshore close of 6.8830,
: according to Reuters data.
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