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发帖数: 33885 | 1 华尔街鄙视英国了。
认为她在世界经济中无足轻重。
华尔街认为希望在中国。
Britain doesn’t matter to the global economy, China does
With all due respect, Britain doesn’t really matter that much.
To be sure it’s upsetting to see the UK political establishment—both major
parties—being torn asunder amid a significant turn inward for one of the
world’s great democracies.
But when we’re talking about the future direction of the global economy,
Britain has been playing a diminishing role for decades.
According to the IMF, the UK accounted for roughly 2.4% of global GDP in
2015, down from about 4% in the early 1980s. This means that the slowdown in
the UK will barely nudge the world’s large economies at all. For example,
Goldman Sachs economists now estimate that the spillover effects on the US
economy from the Brexit vote will be a scant 0.1%.
No, if you’re looking for something to worry about, spin the globe and
plant your pudgy finger on the People’s Republic of China, which continues
to grapple with an economic slowdown that has significant implications for
almost every country on earth.
Data released July 1 on the country’s all-important manufacturing sector
show a deepening contraction there, with the June number falling to 48.6
from 49.2 in May. (Anything below 50 indicates contraction.)
If there’s any good news, the slowdown in China’s manufacturing activity
seems to be offset to a certain degree by an uptick in services. This is a
positive sign, as China must make an economic transition away from export-
driven manufacturing if it wants to produce more sustainable growth. (There
simply aren’t enough customers outside China for all the factories that
have been built in the People’s Republic to keep busy.)
Chinese policymakers are trying to carry out this difficult transition in
the incremental, tightly controlled, less-than-transparent way we’ve come
to expect from the authoritarian regime. That approach stands in stark
contrast to the abrupt, public, and democratic turn the United Kingdom took
in the recent EU referendum.
But while they are much quieter, the changes in China remain vastly more
important to the global economy as a whole. |
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