h***1
发帖数: 2263 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: huhu1 (呼呼~), 信区: USANews
标 题: 说家家都有枪枪击案会增多的进来看
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Jun 14 03:03:10 2016, 美东)
再访肯尼索(Kennesaw)作者：杰夫·诺克斯（Jeff Knox）
（2008年10月7日）在1981年，伊利诺伊州莫顿格罗夫(Morton Grove)，成为美国第一
个通过了禁止拥有手枪的法律的城镇。只有警察和现役军人履行公务时才能有手枪。作
为对此法律的响应，乔治亚州的肯尼索镇在1982年3月通过了自己的拥枪法律。肯尼索
的法律和莫顿格罗夫的法律几乎完全相反。肯尼索不但不禁止居民拥有手枪，反而规定
每个家庭保持至少一支枪械及弹药 - 只有那些其宗教或哲学反对持有或使用武器的居
民可以不遵守此法律。换句话说，拥有枪支是强制性的。
当莫顿格罗夫瞬间成了媒体的宠儿时，肯尼索则成为一个倍受羞辱和谴责的城市。媒体
的权威人士和“记者”嘲笑并大胆地预测这个亚特兰大北边几英里外的小镇的街道上很
快就会血流成河。很长时间里大家仍可以偶尔从某个深夜脱口秀主持人或某些新闻主播
那里听到嘲笑肯尼索的笑话，但所有的西部牛仔持枪乱射的预测一点儿都不靠谱。当然
，绝大部分媒体忽略了他们预测的失败，以及这个可以比较禁枪拥枪实验数据的机会。
当实验开始时，肯尼索和莫顿格罗夫并不是站在一个公平的起跑线上。肯尼索是一个迷
人的乡村，而莫顿格罗夫是一个城市郊区。肯尼索人口只有约5500，而莫顿格罗夫是接
近23,000。并且肯尼索的人均犯罪率明显高于全国平均水平，而莫顿格罗夫享受相对较
低的犯罪率。事实是，肯尼索还没开始就落后了。在近三十几年来，因为这些法律开始
生效，肯尼索的劣势在增长而不是萎缩。虽然莫顿格罗夫的人口一直保持相当稳定，肯
尼索的人口则快速增长。莫顿格罗夫的居民比全国平均年龄稍大，而肯尼索的平均年龄
明显小得多。这两个城镇以白人为主，但肯尼索有更多的黑人和拉美裔美国人，而莫顿
格鲁夫的少数民族人口主要是亚裔。根据全国的统计结果，亚裔是犯罪率最低的民族，
而黑人和西班牙裔是犯罪率最高的民族。
所有这些缺点都让肯尼索占了之后，这两个社区实际上是如何变化的？
禁枪令颁布后，莫顿格罗夫原来相对较低的犯罪率立即上升了超过15％（比周边地区高
12％），并一直稳定地维持在稍稍低于全国平均犯罪率的水平。一直没有统计能显示出
手枪禁令对降低犯罪率有任何积极的效果。
肯尼索则经历了一个不同的过程。在1982年，肯尼索颁布每家拥枪法令以来，犯罪率比
上年同期降低了74％。然后犯罪率在1982到1983年间又在上一年的基础上下降了45％。
公平的说，当犯罪的绝对数值和人口总数都比较小时，统计数字中的增加或减少的百分
比是非常误导读者的。
统计数据真能说明真相的是按人头平均后比较市，县，地区和全国平均犯罪率水平。当
一个城市的犯罪率本来的变化趋势是紧随国家和/或所在地区的犯罪率而变化（不管是
高于还是低于），然后当一个新法律通过后，犯罪率明显偏离原来的水平的时候，这明
显表明新法律的通过对犯罪率产生了一定的影响。
在刚刚通过禁枪令后，莫顿格罗夫的人均犯罪率发生了大幅的上升，显著偏离了地区和
全国的平均水平。于此同时，肯尼索的犯罪率却以更快的速度大幅下降。肯尼索枪法颁
布后犯罪率的下降速度- 远远快于联邦，州或当地的犯罪率变化趋势，使其远低于全国
平均水平。尽管在这几十年来肯尼索的人口从5000增长到30,000，肯尼索的犯罪率仍明
显低于国家或地区的平均水平。而肯尼索的人民根本不需要使用他们的枪支来促成犯罪
率的降低。潜在的罪犯们只需要知道选择肯尼索等于选择了一批武装起来的受害者，他
们就已经选择不在肯尼索干坏事了。
当强制拥枪的法令于1982年颁布后，过了15年该镇才发生了第一起与枪支有关的谋杀案
。如果我没记错的话，有两个外来的游客在一家汽车旅馆的房间里争论起来，其中一个
坚持说.25口径的半自动手枪射出的子弹不可能穿透他无比强壮的胸大肌，而他的伙伴
决定用实验证明。毫无疑问，最后得到证明的是这两位是不折不扣的傻冒。
25年后，肯尼索和莫顿格罗夫的例子证明了唯一有希望降低犯罪的枪支管制法是让守法
公民拥有武装，而不是解除他们的武装。但你能记住有几家新闻在去年三月报道这个故
事吗？明年三月的26周年大家仍会看到这震耳欲聋的沉默。
原文（http://firearmscoalition.org）：Kennesaw Revisited
翻译：turbopascal @ http://qiangyou.org
诺克斯报告
来自火器联盟（Firearms Coalition）
下面是原文。
Kennesaw Revisited
By Jeff Knox
(October 7, 2008) In 1981, Morton Grove, Illinois became the first town in
the U.S. to pass a flat out ban on the possession of handguns within the
town limits by anyone except police and active duty military during the
performance of their official duties. In response, the town of Kennesaw,
Georgia passed a gun law of their own in March of 1982. The Kennesaw law was
almost the exact opposite to the Morton Grove ordinance. Rather than
banning handgun possession, Kennesaw required every head-of-household to
keep at least one firearm and appropriate ammunition in their home – with
exemptions for those who had religious or philosophical objections to
maintaining or using weapons. In other words, gun ownership was mandatory
except for people who didn’t want to own a gun.
While Morton Grove became an instant media darling, Kennesaw became a pariah
and a punch line. Pundits and “reporters” made jokes and wild predictions
about the blood that would soon run in the streets of the small town a few
miles North of Atlanta. The derision can still be heard occasionally from a
late-night talk show host or a reflective news anchor, but all of the
predictions of the “Wild West” and shootouts over fender-benders, simply
didn’t pan out. Of course this lack of disaster was simply ignored by most
in the media as were the actual results of this little comparative
experiment.
Kennesaw and Morton Grove weren’t really a fair comparison when the
experiment started. Kennesaw was pretty rural while Morton Grove was solidly
suburban. Kennesaw had a population of only about 5500 while Morton Grove
was closer to 23,000. And Kennesaw had a per capita crime rate significantly
higher than the national average while Morton Grove enjoyed a relatively
low crime rate. The fact is, Kennesaw was at a marked disadvantage from the
beginning of this comparison. In the nearly three decades since these laws
went into effect, Kennesaw’s disadvantage has grown rather than shrunk.
While Morton Grove has remained at a fairly steady population, Kennesaw’s
population has boomed to take a slight lead. While Morton Grove’s residents
are slightly older than the national average, Kennesaw’s are significantly
younger. Both towns are predominantly White, but Kennesaw has more Blacks
and Hispanics while Morton Grove’s minority population is predominantly
Asian. Statistically, Asian populations have the lowest crime rates of any
minority while Blacks and Hispanics have the highest crime rates in the
nation.
With all of these disadvantages working against Kennesaw, how did the two
communities actually fare?
Morton Grove’s relatively low crime rate went up by over 15% immediately
after enactment of the ban (12% more than surrounding areas) and has held
pretty steady at just a tad below the national average ever since. There has
been no statistical indication of the handgun ban having any positive
effect.
Kennesaw is a different story though. In 1982, the year the firearms
requirement was enacted, Kennesaw realized a 74% reduction in crime against
persons over the previous year. That rate then dropped 45% between 1982 and
1983. In fairness, statistics showing percentage increases or decreases in
crime can be very misleading especially when crime numbers and the
population are both low to begin with.
The statistics that are really telling are per capita comparisons between
municipal, county, regional, and national averages. When a city’s crime
rate is trending parallel to the national and/or regional crime rates (
whether higher or lower) and then deviates dramatically from those averages
after a new law is passed, that is a strong indication that the new law is
having an impact.
While Morton Grove’s per capita crime rate took a dramatic jump, deviating
substantially from regional and national averages, right after passage of
their gun ban, Kennesaw’s crime rate did the opposite in an even more
dramatic way. After Kennesaw’s gun law was enacted crime dropped
dramatically – much faster than federal, state, or local trends – and
leveled out well below national averages. In spite of a population increase
from 5000 to almost 30,000 during the same period, Kennesaw’s crime rates
remain significantly lower than national or area averages. And the people of
Kennesaw didn’t have to use their mandated firearms to affect this
dramatic change. The simple knowledge on the part of criminals that if they
worked in Kennesaw they were choosing to work with an armed prospective
victim pool was enough to convince them not to pursue their chosen
professions there.
After the enactment of the firearms mandate in 1982, it took 15 years before
there was a murder committed with a firearm in the town. As I recall, it
was the result of two visitors who got into an argument in their motel room.
One was insisting that a .25 automatic could not penetrate thick chest
muscles like his and the other fellow decided to settle the argument and
proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that they were both idiots.
After 25 years, Kennesaw and Morton Grove stand out as proof positive that
the only gun control laws with any hope of reducing crime are laws which
empower the law-abiding people rather than disarming them. But remember how
much news coverage was given to this story last March? Expect more of that
deafening silence for the 26th anniversary next March. | P*C
发帖数: 6109 | 2 我出国前在中国过了二十多年 没听过枪击案
到了美国各三差五的就枪击案 能不能论证拟题目的论点 | h***1
发帖数: 2263 | 3 你要能让美国民间几亿条枪一夜间蒸发了，像中国那样禁当然可以。
一张禁枪纸能让几亿条枪物理蒸发吗？
左B做事就是只打嘴炮不看环境不顾条件不管结果。
【在 P*C 的大作中提到】
: 我出国前在中国过了二十多年 没听过枪击案
: 到了美国各三差五的就枪击案 能不能论证拟题目的论点
| g********r
发帖数: 4248 | 4 SB， 千岛湖案件
【在 P*C 的大作中提到】
: 我出国前在中国过了二十多年 没听过枪击案
: 到了美国各三差五的就枪击案 能不能论证拟题目的论点
| m*****u
发帖数: 15526 | 5 在一个枪支泛滥的土匪社会，当然持枪可以更好保护自己。但是这个社会是合理的吗？
你那文章里也说了，因为家家持枪，犯罪分子不在当地作案了。问题是犯罪分子并没消
失，只不过去别地作案了。总犯罪率并没下降，这不是解决问题的根本方法。 | k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 6 你鸵鸟吧？最有名的张君，你没听说过？其他枪击案也很多，不过中国特点是
仇杀较多，没有什么randomly屠杀陌生人的。所以枪击案死伤都不重。
【在 P*C 的大作中提到】
: 我出国前在中国过了二十多年 没听过枪击案
: 到了美国各三差五的就枪击案 能不能论证拟题目的论点
| h***1
发帖数: 2263 | 7 问题是现在就是一个枪支泛滥的社会。
你不持枪，罪犯就会持枪。解决问题的根本方法当然是要么消
毁枪，要么不让危险人物搞到枪，但禁枪这两个目的都
达不到，恰恰相反只能让自卫守法公民拿不到枪。
【在 m*****u 的大作中提到】
: 在一个枪支泛滥的土匪社会，当然持枪可以更好保护自己。但是这个社会是合理的吗？
: 你那文章里也说了，因为家家持枪，犯罪分子不在当地作案了。问题是犯罪分子并没消
: 失，只不过去别地作案了。总犯罪率并没下降，这不是解决问题的根本方法。
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