c*****e
发帖数: 3226 | 1 http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/china%E2%80%99s-new-silk-roa
China’s response to the so-called US pivot to Asia is to expand influence
in Asia. Known as the “One Belt, One Road,” the modern-day Silk Road
network “will not only enhance ‘five connections’ – trade,
infrastructure, investment, capital and people – it will create a community
with ‘shared interests, destiny and responsibilities,’” explains
Shuaihua Wallace Cheng, managing director of ICTSD China and a Yale World
Fellow. China hopes to diversify exports, contribute to development in
Eurasia, increase access to food and energy, lessen dependence on the US
dollar and improve representation of developing nations in global affairs.
Another facet of China’s leadership is the launch of the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank, attracting 57 founding members including
Germany, United Kingdom, France and Brazil. The United States and Japan, the
world’s largest and third largest economies, did not apply. The rise of
emerging economies is inevitable. Cheng suggests that the United States
assess China’s embrace of global responsibility to determine which
initiatives represent a force for good. – YaleGlobal
China’s New Silk Road: Implications for the US
China’s responds to US pivot to Asia with One Belt, One Road – that could
offer opportunity for the US
Shuaihua Wallace Cheng
YaleGlobal, 28 May 2015
Chinese road: Chinese President Xi Jinping outlines his "One Belt, One Road"
Initiative at a conference in Boao, China (top); the Chinese built a deep-
sea port at Gwadar in Pakistan, part of the proposed New Silk Road
GENEVA: Successful launch of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and
confrontations in the South China Sea have reignited debate over how the
United States should deal with a rising China. The US has not yet offered an
official response to China’s “One Belt, One Road” that marks an
unprecedented shift of China’s economic diplomacy from a low-key approach
to an ambitious China Circle. A considered response is warranted – and the
new Silk Road network could offer an opportunity for the US to engage with
China in a constructive manner.
The initiative has two parts, namely, the Silk Road Economic Belt and the
21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The concept was introduced by Chinese
President Xi Jinping in late 2013. In less than 18 months, China has
produced a comprehensive action plan with committed support from near 60
countries in Eurasia and beyond.
The proposed network has enormous geographic scale. The belt on land runs
through the continents of Asia, Europe and Africa, connecting China, Central
Asia, Russia and Europe in the north, and linking China with the Persian
Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea through Central Asia and the Indian Ocean in
the south. The maritime route starts from China's coast to Europe through
the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean in one route and to the South
Pacific in the other – estimated to cover 4.4 billion people and US$2.1
trillion gross production, respectively 63 percent of world population and
29 percent of world GDP.
China’s vision is no less impressive than the geographic scope. The belt
and road will not only enhance “five connections” – trade, infrastructure
, investment, capital and people – it will create a community with “shared
interests, destiny and responsibilities.” China hopes the network will
become two wings of Asia, with China at the head of this flying eagle.
The belt and road form a massive China Circle that does not overlap with US
territory. China does not want a confrontation. With this emerging circle,
China will have more equal footing vis-à-vis US in the international
economy:
Circle of influence: China is working with 60 nations to construct a
modern-day Silk Road – by land and sea (map courtesy of China Dialogue)
Enlarge Image
The China Circle is partly driven by Obama’s pivot to Asia strategy,
announced in 2011 and also called a rebalance to Asia. The pivot includes
two main security and economic arms – to redeploy 60 percent US air and sea
power to Asia by 2020, surrounding China, and to negotiate the Trans-
Pacific Partnership Agreement with allies, excluding China. The de facto
containment effects of these policies prevent China from expanding its
influence to the East and South.
The circle opens diversified export markets for China. China’s
traditional markets in the US and Western Europe, while big in scale, are
sluggish. More importantly, in some sectors such as solar panel, machinery,
or telecommunication and construction services, these traditional markets
are either already saturated or riddled with protectionist trade and
investment measures. Developing countries along the proposed Silk Road are
far from fully tapped. China’s bilateral trade with countries along the
Silk Road represent 26 percent of China’s total in the first quarter of
2015, according to Chinese Ministry of Commerce.
China will have better access to energy and food, becoming less
dependent on transportation routes controlled by the US military. So far,
about 80 percent of China’s oil imports go through the Strait of Malacca,
crowded and under the control of the US military and non-Chinese commercial
entities. Going through Gwadar Deep Water Port in Pakistan will shorten by
85 percent the distance between China and Europe, Middle East and Africa,
rather than going through Malacca. Gwadar is part of the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor, for which China has signed an investment agreement of US
$46 billion, about one fifth of Pakistan’s annual GDP and 10 times US
investment in Pakistan, to connect the two nations by rail, road, pipelines,
and optical cables. In April, China’s state Xinhua news agency reported
that the nation will invest in the Thai Canal, also known as Kra Canal,
cutting through southern Thailand to save up to 48 hours to shipping
companies transiting routes between Asia and Europe, a route also
circumventing the Strait of Malacca.
The China Circle – plans for a Silk Road network – is driven in part
by Obama’s pivot-to-Asia strategy.
The China Circle has a potential to be a renminbi circle, allowing China
to optimize use of its foreign reserves and accelerate internationalization
of the currency. China has around US$4 trillion in foreign reserves; so far
more than 60 percent of the foreign reserves are used to buy US government
bonds. The return on these bonds is low, with China’s foreign reserves
constantly losing value due to appreciation of Chinese yuan. Instead of
lending money to US government, China is investing some reserves in
infrastructure and productions along the routes to gain better financial
returns and build political friendship. Besides a couple of bilateral
arrangements, China has also set up two major multilateral institutions,
namely, the AIIB with US$100 billion initial equity, and the New Development
Bank with US$50 billion equity proposed by BRICS countries, headquartered
in Beijing and Shanghai respectively. China also established the Silk Road
Fund, starting discussions about a financing mechanism for Shanghai
Cooperation Organization.
As announced in its belt-road action plan, China envisages “more
capital convergence and currency integration” accompanied by lessening
dependence on the US dollar. The renminbi is widely used for trade in
countries including Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam and
Thailand. By the end of 2014, offshore renminbi deposits amounted to ¥1
.6 trillion and offshore renminbi bonds reached ¥350 billion – a trend
supported by the belt-road initiative. Moreover, this initiative calls for
establishing a renminbi-nominated Asian bond market.
Finally, the China Circle is a manifestation of commitments to improving
international governance and increasing the representation of developing
countries in dealing with global affairs. The belt-road initiative may well
be an exercise of more “China wisdom, China roadmap” and “more public
goods for international community,” as stated by Xi during a 2014 visit to
Latin America. For many countries, China’s roadmap could bring a welcome
economic boost and job creation.
US politicians should not bury their heads in the sand. The rise of emerging
countries is inevitable.
The emerging China Circle poses three questions for US politicians:
Does containing China work? Probably not. China’s manufacturing capacity,
domestic market and foreign reserves are big enough to create its own circle
. Many countries will decline to support containment measures, as shown when
many nations ignored US advice to avoid AIIB membership. Despite US
admonitions against joining AIB, most major economies, 57 in all, applied as
founding members.
Shall the US welcome China’s rise and the emerging China Circle? It’s not
wise for US politicians to bury their heads in the sand. The rise of
emerging countries is inevitable. The rise of China Circle, along with an
Indian Circle and Brazil Circle, is unstoppable. Obama’s State of the Union
address in 2015 and recent congressional trade debates fail to offer a
global vision, by arguing that US policymakers should ensure the US, not
China, to write rules of the global economy. Sadly, their worries center
solely on putting US workers and business at a disadvantage. In assuming
global leadership, the United States should welcome China’s more equal-
footing participation in updating rules and recognize that its growing
influence may be a force for good. China’s belt and road, if successful,
may be such an example, helping fill capital gaps in badly needed
infrastructure, economic development and political institutions throughout
Eurasia. A more developed region could create a bigger economic pie for
everyone, including US business and workers. Success could also undermine
terrorism and radical movements.
Will supporting China's One Belt, One Road, compromise core universal values
and high environmental and labor standards? These are key areas where the
US can show leadership and remain a keystone of the 21st century global
economic architecture. But a keystone must work with other stones rather
than stand alone. |
|
