p****s 发帖数: 3184 | 1 摘要:
In market economies, per capita GDP is directly proportional to the
population fraction with verbal IQ equal to or greater than 106.
We can make a pretty good guess. In all his versions, Man is the product of
adaptation to environments that existed more than 50,000 years ago. Africa,
Europe and Asia presented three distinct adaptational challenges resulting
in three major races: Negroid, Caucasoid and Mongoloid, each differing from
the other in certain physical, mental and psychological aspects.
Mongoloids, for example, developed heat-conserving physical features like
flattened faces, short limbs, epicanthic folds and narrow eyes as responses
to the extreme Siberian cold prevalent in the Fourth Ice Age. In his book
Race, Evolution And Behavior J. P. Rushton writes, "Under these adverse
conditions natural selection [also] increased general intelligence and a
trade-off in favor of visuospatial abilities over verbal because of the
crucial role of strong visuospatial abilities for making sophisticated tools
and weapons, and for the planning and execution of group hunting strategies
."
http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/sft2.htm
全文:
SMART FRACTION THEORY II:
WHY ASIANS LAG
Deeply gratified by Mentor's interest in smart fraction theory, and mindful
of his appreciation of its good fit to observation, Prodigy offers a
refinement to the theory that, notwithstanding the success of the original,
should forever alter the way in which national wealth and IQ are perceived.
Mentor. Come in, Prodigy, welcome!
Prodigy. Thank you, Mentor. I brought a friend, Estranea. You may remember
her twin brother, Estraneo.
Mentor. I do indeed. Welcome Estranea!
Estranea. I am honored to be here and delighted to meet you at last Mentor.
Mentor. Prodigy tells me he will unveil a major refinement of smart fraction
theory this morning. Did you know your brother was here when Prodigy
introduced the original theory?
Estranea. I did.
Mentor. Then you know your presence adds a bit of symmetry to the occasion.
I like symmetry, so thank you for coming. I recall Estraneo was studying at
the Sorbonne.
Estranea. Yes, our careers have progressed in a parallel fashion, though I
lean more toward obscurantism than Estraneo. I just submitted my thesis for
the doctorat du troisième
Mentor. Congratulations!
Estranea. It is titled Lacanist Obscurity in the Works of La Griffe du Lion.
I demonstrate how La Griffe can be interpolated into consciousness as a
type of deconstruction.
Mentor. Sounds exciting.
Prodigy. Ahem ... I promised to mow Aunt Patricia's lawn this afternoon.
Perhaps I should begin my presentation before it rains.
Mentor. I'm sorry Prodigy. Tell us what you have done with smart fraction
theory.
Prodigy. Let me begin at the end--with my most important result:
In market economies, per capita GDP is directly proportional to the
population fraction with verbal IQ equal to or greater than 106.
Mentor. Verbal IQ?! Can you demonstrate this proposition?
Prodigy. About as well as anything in social science can be demonstrated.
Estranea. Excuse me, Prodigy. Advances in poststructuralist feminism have
kept me so busy, I'm afraid I haven't been able to keep up with smart
fraction theory. Would you mind reviewing it briefly for me?
Prodigy. It's quite simple, Estranea. Smart Fraction Theory recognizes that
smart people produce wealth. It asserts that a nation's per capita GDP
varies directly with the fraction of its population that is smart. SFT II
changes the definition of "smart" by linking it to verbal IQ instead of
general IQ. SFT II asserts:
In market economies, per capita GDP is directly proportional to the
population fraction with verbal IQ at or above some determinable threshold.
Estranea. Why market economies?
Prodigy. SFT describes a relationship between wealth and intelligence. A
nation's wealth, however, depends on other variables as well. Economic
system is one of them. Communist economies, for example, are not competitive
even with a very smart population. Thus, if we seek the relationship
between GDP and IQ, we must control for economic system.
Estranea. How did you come up with 106 as the threshold that determines who
is "smart?"
Prodigy. I'll explain soon, please be patient.
Estranea. What do you mean by "verbal IQ?"
Prodigy. Verbal IQ is a score derived from verbal subtests of an IQ test.
The subtests measure abilities like abstract and common sense reasoning,
language comprehension, short-term auditory memory, concentration, attention
, word knowledge, verbal fluency and social judgment. It is the kind of
intelligence that serves lawyers well. I actually prefer the term "verbal-
analytical IQ."
Mentor. I recall that SFT I explained observed GDPs quite well. What
motivated your revision?
Prodigy. SFT I quantitatively accounts for the link between GDP and IQ for
most countries, but it overpredicts GDPs for Northeast Asians. "Why" has
been gnawing at me. Now the problem is solved.
Estranea. By using verbal IQ instead of general IQ?
Prodigy. Precisely.
Estranea. What is it about NE Asians that makes them different from other
racial groups?
Prodigy. Their IQ is bifurcated. NE Asians have the highest IQ of all
peoples other than Ashkenazim. They owe that superior IQ, however, to
extraordinary visuospatial ability, which, despite verbal shortcomings,
lifts their IQ above that of Europeans.
The bifurcation is evident in the workplace where, for example, fully-
assimilated second and third generation NE Asian Americans are
overrepresented in science, medicine and engineering, and underrepresented
in law, social science and the humanities. According to the 1999 National
Science Foundation survey of PhDs awarded to US citizens and permanent
residents, Asian Americans earned 11% of the science and engineering PhDs
but less than 5% of other PhDs.
Estranea. What do you mean by "verbal shortcomings." Is it that NE Asians
perform less well than Europeans on verbal subtests or that they simply are
not given to Strocchian pleonasm?
Prodigy. The former, but there is other evidence of their verbal deficiency.
Take the bar exam for example. In 1989, the Law School Admission Council
commissioned a study of bar passage rates. Its report, The LSAC National
Longitudinal Bar Passage Study was published in 1998, with results
disaggregated by race and ethnicity. Linda F. Wightman, the project head,
collected data from more than 27,000 students who entered ABA approved law
schools in fall 1991. The study found that only 80.75% of Asians passed the
bar on the first try compared with 91.93% of non-Hispanic whites. This
corresponds to a white-Asian mean-score difference of 0.53 standard
deviation or in IQ terms a verbal gap of 8 points!
Unfortunately, Wightman put NE Asians into one big Asian box along with
Filipinos, Hmong and others whose IQs are more than a standard deviation
lower than Chinese, Koreans and Japanese. It is true that relatively few
from low-IQ groups make it to the bar exam, but some do. Consequently, 8
points must be regarded as an upper bound to the white-NE Asian verbal gap.
Mentor. Is there more direct evidence of the verbal gap?
Prodigy. Plenty. R. Lynn reviewed the literature on racial IQ in The Mankind
Quarterly, 31:3, Spring 1991, 255-296. IQ averages for Caucasoids,
Mongoloids, Negroids, Negroid-Caucasoid hybrids, Amerindians and South East
Asians were reported. More than 100 studies were referenced, most from peer-
reviewed journals and not a small number from Lynn himself. Of these, 12
reported both general and verbal IQ averages for NE Asians. Three of the 12
indicated a white-NE Asian verbal IQ gap of about 8 points in agreement with
the bar exam result, but these are at the high end. The average verbal gap
was a bit less than 4 points or about a quarter standard deviation.
Mentor. Because you are replacing "general IQ" with "verbal IQ" in SFT, isn'
t it more to the point to know the difference between these quantities for
each race?
Prodigy. It is indeed, Mentor, and I was just going there. Among the races,
only NE Asians and Amerindians exhibit this particular kind of verbal-
nonverbal cognitive split. For other races verbal and general IQ averages
have similar values, making the distinction between the two transparent to
smart fraction theory. In the 12 studies reporting both general and verbal
IQ for NE Asians, the general-verbal gap averaged 6.5 IQ points.
Estranea. I see where you're going. To estimate verbal IQ averages you
subtract 6.5 from NE Asian averages leaving all other IQs unchanged.
Prodigy. Exactly.
Estranea. Can you say why NE Asian IQ splits along verbal-nonverbal lines?
Prodigy. We can make a pretty good guess. In all his versions, Man is the
product of adaptation to environments that existed more than 50,000 years
ago. Africa, Europe and Asia presented three distinct adaptational
challenges resulting in three major races: Negroid, Caucasoid and Mongoloid,
each differing from the other in certain physical, mental and psychological
aspects. Mongoloids, for example, developed heat-conserving physical
features like flattened faces, short limbs, epicanthic folds and narrow eyes
as responses to the extreme Siberian cold prevalent in the Fourth Ice Age.
In his book Race, Evolution And Behavior J. P. Rushton writes, "Under these
adverse conditions natural selection [also] increased general intelligence
and a trade-off in favor of visuospatial abilities over verbal because of
the crucial role of strong visuospatial abilities for making sophisticated
tools and weapons, and for the planning and execution of group hunting
strategies."
But the spectacular visuospatial ability of NE Asians, while accounting for
their high IQ scores, does not necessarily make them good capitalists.
Hunting strategies have little to do with wealth production. And a new tool,
irrespective of point of origin, is now soon available worldwide. The
structure of NE Asian intelligence did not come about in response to
pressures to be attorneys or editors or production managers or copywriters
or salesmen or programmers or systems analysts or insurance adjusters or
purchasing agents or account executives. The harsh prehistoric Siberian
climate did not select for capitalist alleles.
Mentor. I see you brought some charts. May we see them?
Prodigy. I was just about to show them, Mentor. Recall I developed smart
fraction theory to account for data gathered by Lynn and Vanhanen in their
book IQ and the Wealth of Nations. The authors report IQ measurements for 81
countries. Of these, nine are either communist or recently-communist,
including China, Cuba and the Eastern Bloc countries of Bulgaria, Romania,
Slovakia, Russia, Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. The other 72 have
market economies. One, however, Qatar, sits on a huge oil deposit that has
endowed its tiny (less than a million) population with a huge income
completely unrelated to its 78 average IQ. Its wealth being thus thrust upon
it, Qatar does not belong in this or any other analysis of how wealth
relates to intelligence.
Figure 1 is a plot of per capita GDP for the market economies (minus Qatar)
in the Lynn-Vanhanen data set versus average IQ.
Figure 1. Per capita GDP v. mean IQ for 71 market economies. The regression
line is shown dashed. R = 0.82.
Mentor. Which points belong to NE Asians?
Prodigy. In Figure 2, the points are broken down by race. The red triangles
correspond to South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan, the four homogeneous
NE Asian polities included in the data set.
Figure 2. Per capita GDP v. mean IQ. Points are labeled by race.
Points labeled "other" include South Asian Indians, Latin Americans, Pacific
Islanders, Middle Easterners and Asians not of the Northeastern variety.
Estranea. I see nothing remarkable about the NE Asian points. Many other
countries have greater residuals. What am I missing?
Prodigy. No line can adequately describe the nonlinear character of the
relation between per capita GDP and mean IQ. Consequently, deviations from
the regression line reveal little.
Estranea. Why then include it?
Prodigy. For reference. Per capita GDP versus IQ is clearly nonlinear. But,
according to smart fraction theory, per capita GDP is linearly related to
smart fraction. Thus, when switching independent variables from IQ to smart
fraction, we should see a significant improvement in the correlation.
According to SFT, a nation's per capita GDP varies directly with the size of
its smart fraction. That is,
where G is per capita GDP, f is the smart fraction, and c a proportionality
constant. To the extent that (1) is correct, smart fraction is a natural
independent variable for GDP. It provides the simplest relationship between
GDP and intelligence.
Estranea. Measured IQs are tabulated, but where do you find smart fractions?
Prodigy. If we know the threshold IQ that defines "smart" and the
distribution of IQ in a population, we can calculate its smart fraction. I
assumed Gaussian distributions of IQ in each country, which for racially
homogeneous countries is OK, but is less valid in racially heterogeneous
nations.
Estranea. And how do you find the threshold IQ?
Prodigy. Simple. Regard a country's smart fraction as a function of (its
mean IQ) and Q0 (the threshold IQ). That is,
Values for both Q0 and the proportionality constant c are obtained by least
squares fitting of cf(;Q0) to observed GDPs, adjusting c and Q0 to obtain
the best fit.
Estranea. How well does SFT account for the data of Lynn and Vanhanen?
Prodigy. We can see by looking at a plot of per capita GDP versus smart
fraction. According to SFT it should be a straight line through the origin.
Figure 3 shows the plot using smart fractions derived from Lynn and Vanhanen
's observed IQs.
Figure 3. GDP v. smart fraction.
Estranea. I suppose one could make a case for linearity in Figure 3, but not
a great one.
Prodigy. Precisely correct, Estranea. Still worse, the deviations from
linearity are systematic. Almost all the "white" points lie above the
regression line, while most of the "other" and NE Asian points fall below it.
Now I will show you something extraordinary! Figure 4 is the same plot with
NE Asians excluded from the least squares analysis.
Figure 4. GDP v. smart fraction with NE Asian polities excluded from
the analysis.
Estranea. That is extraordinary! The points now array neatly about the
regression line and the systematic error is gone.
Prodigy. Keep in mind also, Estranea, that smart fractions have been derived
from mean IQs by assuming a Gaussian IQ distribution for each population.
The error of this approximation gets folded into the error of the IQ
estimates. Thus, we could not expect the scatter in the plot to be much
smaller or the correlation (0.91) to be much larger. Excluding NE Asians,
the linear dependence of per capita GDP on smart fraction is then
established.
Mentor. This is impressive, Prodigy, but I am puzzled. Comparing Figures 3
and 4, I note that removing the NE Asian points caused the other points to
shift to new locations on the plot. How can this be?
Prodigy. The short of it is that SFT I does not accommodate NE Asians. When
fed into the least squares hopper, the NE Asian data produces a spurious
threshold IQ at the other end. The bogus Q0 alters every smart fraction
resulting in a spurious distribution of points on the plot. Without the NE
Asian data, least squares adjusts Q0 to its proper value, resulting in a
symmetric distribution of points about the regression line.
Using correct values for smart fractions, the NE Asian anomaly becomes
strikingly apparent, as seen in Figure 5. The four NE Asian points are
isolated in a cluster outside the linear path swept out by the other points.
Figure 5. Per capita GDP v. smart fraction. NE Asian points have been
excluded from the least squares analysis, ensuring correct values of the
smart fractions.
Mentor. As I understand it, SFT II uses a verbal IQ threshold to determine
smart fractions. What happens when you throw NE Asians back into the least
squares analysis using verbal IQs instead of general IQs?
Prodigy. Figure 6 shows this.
Figure 6. When smart fractions are calculated from verbal IQs, the
appearance of NE Asian points is unremarkable.
Estranea. Oooh, everything has come together.
Mentor. Congratulations Prodigy. It seems that SFT II is fully supported by
the data of Lynn and Vanhanen.
Prodigy. Correct. The positions of the NE Asian points are now quite
unremarkable. The proportionality constant, c, adjusts to a value of $59,955
, and the IQ threshold, Q0, to 105.6. Thus:
A verbal IQ of about 106 defines the cognitive lower bound of the smart
fraction.
And also:
Each percentage point increase in the "smart percent" is worth about $
600 (1998) to per capita GDP.
Mentor. People don't yet think in terms of smart fractions. They are, for
the moment at least, wedded to the notion of IQ. So, for them, what does SFT
II predict for per capita GDP as a function of mean verbal IQ?
Prodigy. I've saved this for last. Figure 7 shows the curve of predicted
GDPs along with the Lynn and Vanhanen data on the same plot. You can judge
the fit for yourself.
Figure 7. Per capita GDP v. mean verbal IQ. Data of Lynn and Vanhanen. The
solid line is the GDP predicted by Smart Fraction Theory II.
Mentor. I see you have marked two outliers: South Africa and Barbados. Are
these statistical fluctuations?
Prodigy. We cannot be sure. South Africa is the world's largest producer of
platinum, gold, chromium, and diamonds, with an economy set up and largely
maintained by Europeans. Its wealth is heavily influenced by these factors
which may account for its higher than predicted GDP.
Barbados is more problematic. It is tempting to attribute its high (for its
IQ) GDP to the fact that it is blessed with exceptional year-round climate,
proximity to the US, and an American-managed tourism industry. But then one
could ask: "What about Jamaica?" Lest I be accused of cherry picking I
included both South Africa and Barbados in the analysis.
Mentor. Would their exclusion change the parameter values?
Prodigy. Not really. The verbal IQ threshold defining the smart fraction
would remain at 106, and each percentage point increase in the smart percent
would be worth $622 (1998) to per capita GDP instead of $600.
Estranea. This is amazing stuff Prodigy! Have you thought about the economic
consequences of the verbal IQ threshold? For example, the dimmest bulbs in
a nation's smart fraction have verbal IQs near 106. What kind of jobs can
these folks do?
Prodigy. We have data for general IQ, but because verbal and general IQ
averages are similar for most racial groups the results carry over.
According to the 1992 Wonderlic Personnel Test and Scholastic Level Exam
Users Manual, at an IQ level of 106 we might expect to find bookkeepers,
credit clerks, lab techs, salesmen, and secretaries. At slightly higher IQs
we find registered nurses, sales account executives, administrative
assistants and store managers.
These people are not rocket scientists. They are, however, vital to a
flourishing economy. Any nation can supply enough businessmen and CEO types,
but to succeed economically it needs a cognitive core to carry its water--a
smart fraction if you like. In a developed country like Belgium with an
average IQ of 100, thirty-four percent of the general population makes up
its smart fraction. Morocco, in contrast, has an average IQ of 85. Less than
eight percent of its people are capable of doing smart-fraction jobs, a
fact made plain by its dreary third-world economy. But if you think that's
bad, black Africa is utterly hopeless with less than two percent qualifying
for smart-fraction jobs. The demise of colonialism sealed its economic doom.
Estranea. Confronted by a choice between abiding poverty and a colonial yoke
, we must line up on the side of poverty.
Prodigy. Ahem, this promises to become a lively discussion that I dearly
would like to pursue, but faced with a choice between mowing Aunt Patricia's
lawn or calming her wrath, I must line up on the side of circumspection.
Mentor. I am sorry your discourse must end so abruptly, Prodigy. Estranea,
please make frequent visits and say hello to Estraneo.
Estranea. I would love for you to visit with my department at the Sorbonne,
Mentor. You would break all attendance records if you were to lecture on
Yang-Mills theory as postdialectic reality.
Mentor. I will check my calendar, Estranea. Goodbye. Goodbye Prodigy. You've
given me a lot to chew on today.
###
Table of IQs, smart fractions and GDP
Country Average
verbal
IQ Smart
fraction*
as a
percentage
of the
population Actual
Real GDP
per cap
(1998) Theoretical
Real GDP
per cap
(1998)
Equatorial Guinea
59
0.10
1,817
57
Ethiopia
63
0.23
574
136
Sierra Leone
64
0.28
458
167
Congo
65
0.34
822
205
Zimbabwe
66
0.42
2,669
250
Guinea
66
0.42
1,782
250
Nigeria
67
0.51
795
303
Ghana
71
1.06
1,735
634
Tanzania
72
1.26
480
755
Sudan
72
1.26
1,394
755
South Africa
72
1.26
8,488
755
Kenya
72
1.26
980
755
Jamaica
72
1.26
3,389
755
Uganda
73
1.49
1,074
895
Congo (Brazzaville)
73
1.49
995
895
Zambia
77
2.84
719
1,701
Nepal
78
3.30
1,157
1,978
Barbados
78
3.30
12,001
1,978
Guatemala
79
3.82
3,505
2,291
Ecuador
80
4.41
3,003
2,643
India
81
5.07
2,077
3,037
Egypt
83
6.61
3,041
3,965
Puerto Rico
84
7.51
8,000
4,505
Marshall Islands
84
7.51
3,000
4,505
Iran
84
7.51
5,121
4,505
Fiji
84
7.51
4,231
4,505
Morocco
85
8.50
3,305
5,099
Philippines
86
9.59
3,555
5,750
Lebanon
86
9.59
4,326
5,750
Tonga
87
10.78
3,000
6,460
Western Samoa
87
10.78
3,832
6,460
Mexico
87
10.78
7,704
6,460
Iraq
87
10.78
3,197
6,460
Brazil
87
10.78
6,625
6,460
Suriname
89
13.45
5,161
8,066
Indonesia
89
13.45
2,651
8,066
Colombia
89
13.45
6,006
8,066
Peru
90
14.95
4,282
8,963
Turkey
90
14.95
6,422
8,963
Croatia
90
14.95
6,749
8,963
Thailand
91
16.55
5,456
9,925
Greece
92
18.27
13,943
10,952
Malaysia
92
18.27
8,137
10,952
Ireland
93
20.09
21,482
12,042
Israel
94
22.01
17,301
13,195
Slovenia
95
24.03
14,293
14,409
Portugal
95
24.03
14,701
14,409
Uruguay
96
26.15
8,623
15,681
Argentina
96
26.15
12,013
15,681
Spain
97
28.37
16,212
17,009
Finland
97
28.37
20,847
17,009
Canada
97
28.37
23,582
17,009
Taiwan
97.5
29.51
13,000
17,692
France
98
30.67
21,175
18,388
United States
98
30.67
29,605
18,388
Norway
98
30.67
26,342
18,388
Australia
98
30.67
22,452
18,388
Denmark
98
30.67
24,218
18,388
Japan
98.5
31.85
23,257
19,096
South Korea
99.5
34.26
13,478
20,544
Belgium
100
35.50
23,223
21,283
United Kingdom
100
35.50
20,336
21,283
New Zealand
100
35.50
17,288
21,283
Hong Kong
100.5
36.75
20,763
22,031
Sweden
101
38.01
20,659
22,788
Switzerland
101
38.01
25,512
22,788
Germany
102
40.57
22,169
24,325
Austria
102
40.57
23,166
24,325
Netherlands
102
40.57
22,176
24,325
Italy
102
40.57
20,585
24,325
Singapore
103
43.18
24,210
25,886 | p****s 发帖数: 3184 | 2 Estranea: What do you mean by "verbal IQ?"
Prodigy: Verbal IQ is a score derived from verbal subtests of an IQ test.
The subtests measure abilities like abstract and common sense reasoning,
language comprehension, short-term auditory memory, concentration, attention
, word knowledge, verbal fluency and social judgment. It is the kind of
intelligence that serves lawyers well. I actually prefer the term "verbal-
analytical IQ." |
|