w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 1 美媒不信中国贸易世界第一 认为海关数据有虚假
字号:小中大2014-01-14 09:18:39
更多
328
关键字 >> 进出口美媒质疑中国贸易世界第一贸易总额进出口总值海关货物贸易双边贸
易数据造假外媒看中国头条观察者头条
中国2013年进出口贸易额首次超过4万亿美元，“笃定”超过美国！尽管4年前中国已是
“出口世界冠军”，但最新的成就仍被世界媒体看成“又一块里程碑”。英国《金融时
报》说，这“标志着中国跻身全球最强大国家之列”。
又拿下一个“世界第一”在中国没有带来多少兴奋，却给美国带去各种复杂的反应，包
括怀疑的目光。“中国真的是世界第一大贸易国吗？”美国《福布斯》杂志网站12日的
文章在标题中发问，并质疑中国是不是在“夸海口”。“美国之音”也称，由于一些部
门伪造贸易发票，中国贸易数据的准确性令人质疑。
有专家认为，美国传来的这种声音与它在20世纪大部分时间所把持的世界第一地位被中
国颠覆有关。中国清华大学教授何茂春13日对《环球时报》说，在进出口数据上，中国
既无可能又无必要为做大而作假，“本来我们没想沾沾自喜，看原来的第一名这么反应
，我们倒是不妨庆祝一下。”
美媒不信中国贸易世界第一 认为海关数据有虚假
美媒不信中国贸易世界第一 认为海关数据有虚假
又一块里程碑
英国《金融时报》13日报道称，根据中国政府10日发布的数据，中国2013年进出口总值
达到4.16万亿美元，经人民币汇率因素调整后同比增长7.6%。美国将在2月份发布其去
年全年的贸易数据。不过，在2013年1月至11月的11个月里，美国货物进出口总额为3.
57万亿美元，这意味着中国现在基本已经肯定是全球最大的货物贸易国。
报道还称，中国在不久前刚成为全球最大的石油进口国。成为全球最大货物贸易国是又
一块里程碑，标志着中国跻身全球最强大国家之列。同时标志着全球经济实力发生了变
化，最大经济体美国的经济实力有所下滑。
这是中国对外贸易进出口总值首次突破4万亿美元的关口，也是自2004年中国进出口总
值突破1万亿美元，2007年和2011年分别突破2万亿美元和3万亿美元之后，再次突破整
数关口。
德国《明镜》周刊报道说，全球经济不景气，“出口世界冠军”也不是完全不受影响，
比如2013年的中国进出口总值没达到8%的预定目标。但中国出口商正在努力克服负面因
素，如劳动力成本上升，货币升值等，使中国经济仍处于稳定和发展阶段。2014年中国
仍将是世界经济的火车头，并带动世界经济走出危机。
“中国尽管错过8%的外贸增长目标，却收获世界第一大贸易国的荣誉”。德国电视一台
12日说，中国龙仍拥有强劲的力量。
中国龙仍拥有强劲的力量 强劲数据表明经济良好
中国的贸易数据引来复杂议论，有的看好中国经济前景。美国全国广播公司说，中国全
年进口贸易总额为1.95万亿美元，增长7.3%，强劲的进口数据表明中国经济运行仍然良
好。摩根大通的分析师列维斯说：“进口增速反映出中国国内需求比人们预期的要强劲
得多。我们认为中国的经济增长率在2014年仍然能够达到7%到7.5%。”
在美国，不相信中国夺走他们贸易世界第一位置的分析不少。美国《福布斯》杂志的文
章说，中国去年的贸易业绩当然是令人印象深刻，然而几乎没有多少人相信北京的贸易
数据是可靠的。大家认为中国海关去年记录了很大一部分的虚假出口交易。当讨论去年
贸易数据可信性时，专家们总是提出去年1至4月份对香港的可疑出口。在这4个月当中
，货币走私者利用假出口文件把热钱带到中国内地。另外，中国的进口数据也因虚假进
口文件而被扭曲，因为中国人继续把现金带离中国。
作为怀疑中国进出口数据的证据，《福布斯》杂志的文章称，中国统计的2012年对韩国
出口增长5.7%，但韩国统计的从中国进口却下降6.8%。因此，中国的贸易数据从总体上
来说是令人怀疑的，或许中国最终会是最大的贸易国，“但在现在，它不过是在夸海口
”。
“美国之音”也称，由于一些部门伪造贸易发票，中国贸易数据的准确性令人质疑。就
在上个星期，美国非营利机构GFI发布研究报告说，从2006年至2013年第一季度，估计
有多达4000亿美元通过虚假出口发票从香港非法转移到中国内地。
美过激反应质疑数据准确性 专家:中国没必要作假
就美国舆论质疑的中国海关数据准确性，清华大学经济外交研究中心主任何茂春13日接
受《环球时报》采访时表示，海关统计是硬指标，有超乎其他同类数据的权威性，当然
与其他国家一样，中国的总和数据并非万无一失。“我们有义务加强数据统计的科学性
和完整性。这么多年来，在国际贸易数据中造假作假的空间越来越小，中方对此一直严
厉打击。”
实际上，中国并没有要拿下贸易世界第一这顶帽子的愿望。2013年2月，有外媒“计算
出”中国的贸易总额已经超过美国，并称中国成为最大贸易国是中美经济竞争的重大里
程碑。对此，中国政府“不同寻常地予以否认”，中国商务部称，根据世贸组织采用的
统计口径，中国进出口贸易仍比美国少156亿美元。
2004年中国进出口总值超越日本成为全球第三大贸易国，2009年中国出口总额超越德国
成为全球第一大出口国，何茂春说，那些时候中国也都听到过刺耳声音。何茂春表示，
在进出口数据上，中国既无可能也无必要为做大而作假。而美国一些媒体出现质疑论调
，是老大地位被撼动的过激反应。
英国广播公司说，中国最新的贸易数据将颠覆美国在20世纪大部分时间所把持的世界第
一地位，而且在世界上应对美国这个最大的经济体时也跨越了另外一个里程碑。对于一
些人来说，他们对于中国还没有获得这一地位感到惊讶。毕竟中国4年前就成为世界第
一大出口国。
美国是在二战结束后成为全球最大贸易国的，多年来，贸易制裁的“大棒”与在各大海
洋游弋的航母一样，构成美国实力 | r*****1
发帖数: 3465 | 2 “中国真的是世界第一大贸易国吗？”美国《福布斯》杂志网站12日的
文章在标题中发问
你知道这个质疑文章是谁写的吗？狗登常，哈哈，丫已经不要脸了。 | r*****1
发帖数: 3465 | 3 Gordon G. Chang, Contributor
1/12/2014 @ 6:37PM |8,645 views
Is China Really The World's No. 1 Trader?
Comment Now
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“It is very likely that China has overtaken the U.S. to become the world’s
largest trading country in goods in 2013 for the first time,” said Zheng
Yuesheng, spokesman for China’s General Administration of Customs, on
Friday while announcing December—and therefore full year—exports and
imports.
China’s trade volume, he said, was $389.8 billion in December, a monthly
record. Exports, by the way, accounted for a spectacular $207.7 billion.
The country’s trade performance last year was certainly impressive. For
the first time ever, China’s trade topped $4 trillion. For all of 2013,
China’s exports hit $2.21 trillion. Imports rose to $1.95 trillion. The 7
.6% increase in total trade narrowly missed Beijing’s ambitious 8.0% goal
for the year. Zheng called the result “a landmark milestone for our nation
’s foreign trade development.”
Surpassing the U.S. is, as Zheng tells us, a truly important moment. Yet it
is a sign of China’s rise only if it is true, and few believe Beijing’s
trade numbers are reliable. China Customs, everyone agrees, counted a
substantial number of fictitious export transactions last year.
Analysts say that, even if exports were accurately reported, China would
still take the crown from America. They point out that when the Department
of Commerce releases 2013 trade figures next month, we will see that China
topped the U.S. by about $250 billion. Just about everyone makes the
reasonable-sounding argument that Beijing’s numbers, as atrocious as they
are, cannot possibly be a quarter trillion dollars off.
So how bad are Chinese trade statistics? Experts, when discussing the
reliability of the numbers for last year, always point to suspicious January
-April exports to Hong Kong, which, although part of the People’s Republic,
is a separate jurisdiction for customs purposes.
During those four months, currency smugglers used faked export documentation
to bring hot money into China. Many participants benefited from their
paperwork party, most notably investors and speculators betting on a rising
renminbi and desperate Chinese companies scrounging for cash from offshore
lenders. At the same time, exporters were committing VAT-refund fraud by
submitting fake paperwork purporting to show exports to Hong Kong.
There is no question that fake exports to Hong Kong during that four months
amounted to less than $250 billion. Global Financial Integrity, the
research and advocacy non-profit, compared Chinese and Hong Kong statistics
and found that China’s exports to Hong Kong in the first quarter of last
year, as reported by Beijing, were $54.6 billion larger than Hong Kong’s
imports from China, as reported by that city, during the same period.
Despite a reported crackdown on false invoicing in May by Chinese
authorities, the discrepancy in Q2 stats was also large. It appears that,
in first half of 2013, $93.0 billion illegally entered China through fake
export invoicing involving Hong Kong.
Yet fictitious exports to Hong Kong in the first half of the year are by no
means the end of the story. False transactions started to reappear perhaps
as early as July. Reuters attributes unexpected export strength in
September to “hot money inflows” of $16 billion and suggests there was $24
billion in illicit transfers in October. It also reported Beijing’s
November data looked “suspicious.” Even though December’s export growth
of 4.3% disappointed, the figure nonetheless deserves close examination. We
have to remember that the increase was off the very high base of December
2012, a month almost certainly artificially inflated.
The resurgence of fake exports after the May crackdown shows that the
problem has become not only widespread but intractable. China’s strict
currency controls are no match for those determined to move money into the
country.
And we have to remember that China’s statistics are distorted by fake
import documentation too as the Chinese continue to take money out of their
country. Capital flight—and not an improving economy—looks like the
primary reason why last month’s import growth of 8.3% year-on-year caught
analysts off guard.
Despite everything, China Customs is standing by its official numbers. Mr.
Zheng has even specifically defended his agency’s Hong Kong export
statistics. This means that Beijing’s trade numbers for 2013 are totally
suspect, certainly inaccurate to a significant degree, and this inaccuracy
will have knock-on consequences. They will, for instance, inflate the
official gross domestic product estimate, scheduled to be released by the
National Bureau of Statistics on January 20.
Because China Customs refuses to restate its trade numbers, the only way we
can understand the country’s trade position is to cross check its numbers
with those from all of China’s trade partners. The variances are bound to
be substantial, and not just those with Hong Kong. After all, China
reported that exports to South Korea in 2012 increased 5.7% while South
Korea reported that imports from China that year in fact dropped 6.8%. And
we should note that much of South Korea’s trade with China does not pass
through the southern port of Hong Kong.
Zheng may be ultimately correct when he boasts that China is now the world’
s largest trading nation, but at this moment he’s just bragging and we do
not have enough information to verify his claim.
Follow me on Twitter @GordonGChang
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(contributor_data.name)!?html Gordon G. Chang Contributor
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I lived and worked in Shanghai and Hong Kong for almost two decades and now
write primarily on China, Asia, and nuclear proliferation. I am the author
of two Random House books, The Coming Collapse of China and Nuclear Showdown
Times, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Commentary, and The Weekly
Standard, among other publications. I blog at World Affairs Journal. I have
given briefings in Washington and other capitals and have appeared on CNN,
Fox News, MSNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, CNBC, and PBS. I served two terms
as a trustee of Cornell University.
The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the
writer.
Gordon G. Chang’s Popular Posts
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More from Gordon G. Chang
Real-Time News on Forbes
Scan the latest news and headlines in a single stream.
Get ahead of the pack here » | r*****1
发帖数: 3465 | 4 Chang continues to maintain that China is on the brink of collapse and that
the people are one step away from revolution.
He is perhaps best known for his adorable catchphrase, "China will collapse
in --" followed by whichever year follows the present year. (To date, Chang
has predicted that China would collapse in 2006, 2011, 2012, and 2013.)
----------------------------------Wikipedia | p***e
发帖数: 146 | 5 这SB是个好教员
that
collapse
Chang
【在 r*****1 的大作中提到】
: Chang continues to maintain that China is on the brink of collapse and that
: the people are one step away from revolution.
: He is perhaps best known for his adorable catchphrase, "China will collapse
: in --" followed by whichever year follows the present year. (To date, Chang
: has predicted that China would collapse in 2006, 2011, 2012, and 2013.)
: ----------------------------------Wikipedia
| c****g
发帖数: 37081 | | t********t
发帖数: 1070 | 7 其实狗登常干是完全是当年地下党的活儿，跟余责成干的方式都一模一样，表面骂共产
党，实际上是在残酷的，你死我活的犹太媒体环境下，以自己的智商作代价，忍辱负重，
为党国伟业奔走呼号，因为狗登常完美地证明了怀疑共党事业和预测中国垮台的傻逼是
多么滑稽和可笑。
说实话，我其实是真正怀疑狗登常是共党卧底的，这厮在舆论上对中国的贡献可抵半个
宣部。
【在 r*****1 的大作中提到】
: “中国真的是世界第一大贸易国吗？”美国《福布斯》杂志网站12日的
: 文章在标题中发问
: 你知道这个质疑文章是谁写的吗？狗登常，哈哈，丫已经不要脸了。
| g******l
发帖数: 6660 | 8 这哥们完美贯彻了韬光养晦的既定方针，尽职尽责地帮党国争取时间啊，功不可没！！
！！
你们咋就看不明白啊
【在 w*********g 的大作中提到】
: 美媒不信中国贸易世界第一 认为海关数据有虚假
: 字号:小中大2014-01-14 09:18:39
: 更多
: 328
: 关键字 >> 进出口美媒质疑中国贸易世界第一贸易总额进出口总值海关货物贸易双边贸
: 易数据造假外媒看中国头条观察者头条
: 中国2013年进出口贸易额首次超过4万亿美元，“笃定”超过美国！尽管4年前中国已是
: “出口世界冠军”，但最新的成就仍被世界媒体看成“又一块里程碑”。英国《金融时
: 报》说，这“标志着中国跻身全球最强大国家之列”。
: 又拿下一个“世界第一”在中国没有带来多少兴奋，却给美国带去各种复杂的反应，包
| c*****g
发帖数: 21627 | 9 re，哈哈哈哈
【在 g******l 的大作中提到】
: 这哥们完美贯彻了韬光养晦的既定方针，尽职尽责地帮党国争取时间啊，功不可没！！
: ！！
: 你们咋就看不明白啊
| T*****y
发帖数: 18592 | | | | y****z
发帖数: 502 | | m*****e
发帖数: 10963 | 12 中国统计的2012年对韩国 出口增长5.7%，但韩国统计的从中国进口却下降6.8%。因此
，中国的贸易数据从总体上来说是令人怀疑的， | b****l
发帖数: 23606 | 13 棒子往国内带年货没报关？
德无良心之徒，故见之即坚决灭之。
【在 m*****e 的大作中提到】
: 中国统计的2012年对韩国 出口增长5.7%，但韩国统计的从中国进口却下降6.8%。因此
: ，中国的贸易数据从总体上来说是令人怀疑的，
| m*****e
发帖数: 10963 | 14 热钱就这么进入国内的。。。（假出口，真热钱）。。。
中国这恶贸易数字应该减去这几年蜂拥而入的热钱（人民币升值，热钱涌入）。。。
【在 b****l 的大作中提到】
: 棒子往国内带年货没报关？
:
: 德无良心之徒，故见之即坚决灭之。
| t***e
发帖数: 3601 | | c****h
发帖数: 4968 | 16 这个Gordon Chang已经是臭名昭著的China Hater了。媒体找他根本就是想自慰，high
一下罢了。后面的评论说的好，短短几十年，中国让6亿人彻底脱贫，很难相信丫找不
到没有一点正面的东西。不知道他在中国工作时受到了什么刺激，或是小时候被白人小
孩欺负过头了？反华已经到了精神病的地步。
【在 r*****1 的大作中提到】
: “中国真的是世界第一大贸易国吗？”美国《福布斯》杂志网站12日的
: 文章在标题中发问
: 你知道这个质疑文章是谁写的吗？狗登常，哈哈，丫已经不要脸了。
| n*****t
发帖数: 22014 | 17 海关不一定假，但出口骗税不是稀罕事，卖到香港再运回来
【在 w*********g 的大作中提到】
: 美媒不信中国贸易世界第一 认为海关数据有虚假
: 字号:小中大2014-01-14 09:18:39
: 更多
: 328
: 关键字 >> 进出口美媒质疑中国贸易世界第一贸易总额进出口总值海关货物贸易双边贸
: 易数据造假外媒看中国头条观察者头条
: 中国2013年进出口贸易额首次超过4万亿美元，“笃定”超过美国！尽管4年前中国已是
: “出口世界冠军”，但最新的成就仍被世界媒体看成“又一块里程碑”。英国《金融时
: 报》说，这“标志着中国跻身全球最强大国家之列”。
: 又拿下一个“世界第一”在中国没有带来多少兴奋，却给美国带去各种复杂的反应，包
| c*****g
发帖数: 21627 | 18 中国顺差大了，就说“中国经济结构不合理，过分依赖出口”
中国顺差小了或者有逆差，就说“中国假出口真热钱”
【在 m*****e 的大作中提到】
: 热钱就这么进入国内的。。。（假出口，真热钱）。。。
: 中国这恶贸易数字应该减去这几年蜂拥而入的热钱（人民币升值，热钱涌入）。。。
| w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | | l*********u
发帖数: 19053 | 20 :)
【在 w*********g 的大作中提到】
: 美媒不信中国贸易世界第一 认为海关数据有虚假
: 字号:小中大2014-01-14 09:18:39
: 更多
: 328
: 关键字 >> 进出口美媒质疑中国贸易世界第一贸易总额进出口总值海关货物贸易双边贸
: 易数据造假外媒看中国头条观察者头条
: 中国2013年进出口贸易额首次超过4万亿美元，“笃定”超过美国！尽管4年前中国已是
: “出口世界冠军”，但最新的成就仍被世界媒体看成“又一块里程碑”。英国《金融时
: 报》说，这“标志着中国跻身全球最强大国家之列”。
: 又拿下一个“世界第一”在中国没有带来多少兴奋，却给美国带去各种复杂的反应，包
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