u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 1 美国股市是世界经济最后的参汤。参汤是干什么用的，吊命。等参汤喝完了，会怎样？
崩盘呗。谁最惨？当然是天文数字般搞各种固定资产投资的国家，因为折旧还没开始就
结束了，或曰中崩元年。忘了提，码工的需求和这碗参汤的关系非常紧密。你们都太年
轻，既没经历过亚洲金融危机，也没经历过更早的宏观调控。现在的习的“节俭”政策
已经指明了方向，谁还以为经济要大扩张，就是找死。 |
H*********S
发帖数: 22772 | 2 大仙，中崩元年具体是哪一年？我要等到什么时候才能去帝都魔都抄底呀？ |
u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 3 这么经典的帖子没人回？看经济学家观点，你需要知道他们是干什么的，以什么为生。
Most People Are Paid To Be Optimistic。下面引用一段我最尊敬的经济学家之一的
话;
This raises the question: just what is a speculative bubble? The Oxford
English Dictionary defines a bubble as “anything fragile, unsubstantial,
empty, or worthless; a deceptive show. From 17th c. onwards often applied to
delusive commercial or financial schemes.” The problem is that words like
“show” and “scheme” suggest a deliberate creation, rather than a
widespread social phenomenon that is not directed by any impresario.
Maybe the word bubble is used too carelessly.
Eugene Fama certainly thinks so. Fama, the most important proponent of the
“efficient markets hypothesis,” denies that bubbles exist. As he put it in
a 2010 interview with John Cassidy for The New Yorker, “I don’t even know
what a bubble means. These words have become popular. I don’t think they
have any meaning.”
In the second edition of my book Irrational Exuberance, I tried to give a
better definition of a bubble. A “speculative bubble,” I wrote then, is “
a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm,
which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the
process amplifying stories that might justify the price increase.” This
attracts “a larger and larger class of investors, who, despite doubts about
the real value of the investment, are drawn to it partly through envy of
others’ successes and partly through a gambler’s excitement.”
That seems to be the core of the meaning of the word as it is most
consistently used. Implicit in this definition is a suggestion about why it
is so difficult for “smart money” to profit by betting against bubbles:
the psychological contagion promotes a mindset that justifies the price
increases, so that participation in the bubble might be called almost
rational. But it is not rational.
【在 u****d 的大作中提到】
: 美国股市是世界经济最后的参汤。参汤是干什么用的，吊命。等参汤喝完了，会怎样？
: 崩盘呗。谁最惨？当然是天文数字般搞各种固定资产投资的国家，因为折旧还没开始就
: 结束了，或曰中崩元年。忘了提，码工的需求和这碗参汤的关系非常紧密。你们都太年
: 轻，既没经历过亚洲金融危机，也没经历过更早的宏观调控。现在的习的“节俭”政策
: 已经指明了方向，谁还以为经济要大扩张，就是找死。
|
u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 4 预测泡沫破裂时间点是最难的，准备20个月内见证历史吧。希望你能保住工作。我还是
希望更多的华人能在这一轮惨痛的经历中存活过来，不管老将小将。
【在 H*********S 的大作中提到】
: 大仙，中崩元年具体是哪一年？我要等到什么时候才能去帝都魔都抄底呀？
|
vi
发帖数: 309 | 5 I can never write in English like that.... |
u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 6 你不会以为是我写的吧？
【在 vi 的大作中提到】
: I can never write in English like that....
|
H*********S
发帖数: 22772 | 7 托你吉言华人都能保住工作，生活安定多养娃
wait a min，你丫说的到底是中崩元年还是美崩元年，或者干脆泥玛世崩元年？
【在 u****d 的大作中提到】
: 预测泡沫破裂时间点是最难的，准备20个月内见证历史吧。希望你能保住工作。我还是
: 希望更多的华人能在这一轮惨痛的经历中存活过来，不管老将小将。
|
u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 8 你以为现在的世界经济分得开么？
【在 H*********S 的大作中提到】
: 托你吉言华人都能保住工作，生活安定多养娃
: wait a min，你丫说的到底是中崩元年还是美崩元年，或者干脆泥玛世崩元年？
|
