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发帖数: 2578 | 1 谁说雷曼兄弟已死，看，华尔街的旗帜前仆后继。
Worst Is Over for Asia’s Emerging Markets, Nomura’s Ashley Says
By Jonathan Burgos and Joyce Koh - Sep 2, 2013 The worst may be over for
Asian emerging markets, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604), after
investors pulled billions of dollars last month on concern the U.S. Federal
Reserve will start cutting back bond purchases.
“We’re through the worst of the crisis but it doesn’t mean individual
countries won’t continue to suffer significant challenges,” Steve Ashley,
London-based head of global markets at Nomura, said in an interview. “We
remain relatively positive on the longer term performance of risk assets in
Asian emerging markets.”
The outlook for Asian emerging markets remains “very positive” over the
next 5 to 10 years as the amount of investments by funds in these countries
will likely have to catch up with the growing size of their economies, he
said in Singapore on Aug. 30.
A gauge of Chinese manufacturing index rose to its highest level in 16
months in August as new orders jumped, adding to evidence that growth in the
world’s second-largest economy is strengthening after a two-quarter
slowdown, according to a government report over the weekend. The Philippine
economy expanded above 7 percent for a fourth straight quarter in the three
months to June, a separate report showed.
The positive outlook for Asian emerging markets provides an opportunity for
Nomura outside Japan, a key market, Ashley said. The number of Nomura
clients in Asia ex-Japan for the global markets division doubled in the past
three years, he said.
Integrated Trading
Since taking on his role in December last year, Ashley, 46, has pushed to
integrate the bank’s 1,800 sales and trading staff from equity and fixed
income. There are now trading floors handling multiple asset classes in
London, New York and Singapore, he said, with the one in Hong Kong to be set
up by the end of the year.
“The closer collaboration between fixed income and equities is actually
indicative of closer collaboration with all of the other Nomura divisions --
retail, asset management, wealth management,” he said.
The expansion also came as the MSCI Asia-Pacific Excluding Japan Index
dropped as much as 14 percent after Federal Reserve Ben S. Bernanke said on
May 22 the central bank may start tapering $85 billion in monthly U.S. bond
purchases if the world’s biggest economy improves. About $44 billion has
been pulled from emerging-market stock and bond funds globally since the end
of May, data provider EPFR Global said on Aug. 23.
Stimulus Addiction
The markets have been “addicted to the methodone of quantitative easing,”
Ashley said. “It needs to wean itself off, and that’s why we see some
turbulence in the markets. For the longer-term health of financial markets,
it’s important that normalization takes place.”
The Fed has kept its target for overnight lending between banks in a range
of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. Investors see a 59 percent
chance policy makers will raise the so-called federal funds rate to 0.5
percent or more by January 2015, data compiled by Bloomberg from futures
show. Yields on 10-year U.S. government bonds surged for a fourth month,
touching its highest since July 2011.
“The market shouldn’t be frightened of normalization,” Ashley said.
Historically, “the first half of the tightening cycle is normally
accompanied with reasonable economic growth and reasonable performance by
risk assets. It’s only towards the end of the tightening cycle that you see
a tail-off in risk asset performance.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at
j******[email protected]; Joyce Koh in Singapore at j****[email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Sarah McDonald at
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