D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 1 China's shadow banking system is out of control and under mounting stress as
borrowers struggle to roll over short-term debts, Fitch Ratings has warned.
Fitch warned that wealth products worth $2 trillion of lending are in
reality a "hidden second balance sheet" for banks, allowing them to
circumvent loan curbs and dodge efforts by regulators to halt the excesses.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The agency said the scale of credit was so extreme that the country would
find it very hard to grow its way out of the excesses as in past episodes,
implying tougher times ahead.
"The credit-driven growth model is clearly falling apart. This could feed
into a massive over-capacity problem, and potentially into a Japanese-style
deflation," said Charlene Chu, the agency's senior director in Beijing.
"There is no transparency in the shadow banking system, and systemic risk is
rising. We have no idea who the borrowers are, who the lenders are, and
what the quality of assets is, and this undermines signalling," she told The
Daily Telegraph.
While the non-performing loan rate of the banks may look benign at just 1pc,
this has become irrelevant as trusts, wealth-management funds, offshore
vehicles and other forms of irregular lending make up over half of all new
credit. "It means nothing if you can off-load any bad asset you want. A lot
of the banking exposure to property is not booked as property," she said.
Concerns are rising after a string of upsets in Quingdao, Ordos, Jilin and
elsewhere, in so-called trust products, a $1.4 trillion (£0.9 trillion)
segment of the shadow banking system.
Bank Everbright defaulted on an interbank loan 10 days ago amid wild spikes
in short-term "Shibor" borrowing rates, a sign that liquidity has suddenly
dried up. "Typically stress starts in the periphery and moves to the core,
and that is what we are already seeing with defaults in trust products," she
said.
Fitch warned that wealth products worth $2 trillion of lending are in
reality a "hidden second balance sheet" for banks, allowing them to
circumvent loan curbs and dodge efforts by regulators to halt the excesses.
This niche is the epicentre of risk. Half the loans must be rolled over
every three months, and another 25pc in less than six months. This has
echoes of Northern Rock, Lehman Brothers and others that came to grief in
the West on short-term liabilities when the wholesale capital markets froze.
Mrs Chu said the banks had been forced to park over $3 trillion in reserves
at the central bank, giving them a "massive savings account that can be
drawn down" in a crisis, but this may not be enough to avert trouble given
the sheer scale of the lending boom.
Overall credit has jumped from $9 trillion to $23 trillion since the Lehman
crisis. "They have replicated the entire US commercial banking system in
five years," she said.
The ratio of credit to GDP has jumped by 75 percentage points to 200pc of
GDP, compared to roughly 40 points in the US over five years leading up to
the subprime bubble, or in Japan before the Nikkei bubble burst in 1990. "
This is beyond anything we have ever seen before in a large economy. We don'
t know how this will play out. The next six months will be crucial," she
said.
The agency downgraded China's long-term currency rating to AA- debt in April
but still thinks the government can handle any banking crisis, however bad.
"The Chinese state has a lot of firepower. It is very able and very willing
to support the banking sector. The real question is what this means for
growth, and therefore for social and political risk," said Mrs Chu.
"There is no way they can grow out of their asset problems as they did in
the past. We think this will be very different from the banking crisis in
the late 1990s. With credit at 200pc of GDP, the numerator is growing twice
as fast as the denominator. You can't grow out of that."
The authorities have been trying to manage a soft-landing, deploying loan
curbs and a high reserve ratio requirement (RRR) for banks to halt property
speculation. The home price to income ratio has reached 16 to 18 in many
cities, shutting workers out of the market. Shadow banking has plugged the
gap for much of the last two years.
However, a new problem has emerged as the economic efficiency of credit
collapses. The extra GDP growth generated by each extra yuan of loans has
dropped from 0.85 to 0.15 over the last four years, a sign of exhaustion.
Wei Yao from Societe Generale says the debt service ratio of Chinese
companies has reached 30pc of GDP – the typical threshold for financial
crises -- and many will not be able to pay interest or repay principal. She
warned that the country could be on the verge of a "Minsky Moment", when the
debt pyramid collapses under its own weight. "The debt snowball is getting
bigger and bigger, without contributing to real activity," she said.
The latest twist is sudden stress in the overnight lending markets. "We
believe the series of policy tightening measures in the past three months
have reached critical mass, such that deleveraging in the banking sector is
happening. Liquidity tightening can be very damaging to a highly leveraged
economy," said Zhiwei Zhang from Nomura.
"There is room to cut interest rates and the reserve ratio in the second
half," wrote a front-page editorial today in China Securities Journal on
Friday. The article is the first sign that the authorities are preparing to
change tack, shifting to a looser stance after a drizzle of bad data over
recent weeks.
The journal said total credit in China's financial system may be as high as
221pc of GDP, jumping almost eightfold over the last decade, and warned that
companies will have to fork out $1 trillion in interest payments alone this
year. "Chinese corporate debt burdens are much higher than those of other
economies. Much of the liquidity is being used to repay debt and not to
finance output," it said.
It also flagged worries over an exodus of hot money once the US Federal
Reserve starts tightening. "China will face large-scale capital outflows if
there is an exit from quantitative easing and the dollar strengthens," it
wrote.
The journal said foreign withdrawals from Chinese equity funds were the
highest since early 2008 in the week up to June 5, and withdrawals from Hong
Kong funds were the most in a decade. |
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 2 中国的影子银行系统的控制下安装应力作为借款人难以翻身短期债务，惠誉国际评级（
Fitch Ratings）警告。
惠誉警告说，财富管理产品的价值2万亿美元的贷款现实中“隐藏的第二资产负债表”
，让他们为银行规避贷款限制措施和闪避监管机构的努力，以制止过激行为。
埃文斯 - 普里查德
该机构表示，信贷规模是如此极端，该国将发现它很难过度增长的方式，在过去的情节
，这意味着未来的艰难时期。
“信贷驱动型增长模式显然是分崩离析，这可以养活成一个巨大的产能过剩的问题，并
有可能进入日本式通货紧缩，“朱夏莲说，该机构的高级主管在北京。
“没有影子银行体系的透明度，并系统性风险不断提高。我们不知道谁是借款人，贷款
方是谁，什么样的资产质量，破坏了信号，“她告诉“每日电讯报”。
虽然银行的不良贷款率可能看起来良性只有1个，这已成为信托，财富管理基金，离岸
无关超过一半的新车辆不规则的贷款和其他形式的弥补信贷。 “这意味着什么，如果
你可以关闭加载很多你想要的任何不良资产。银行曝光的财产不作为物业入账，“她说。
关注一串冷门后在Quingdao，鄂尔多斯，吉林上升在其他地方，在所谓的信托产品中，
美元1.4万亿美元（09000亿英镑）段的影子银行体系。
银行光大银行同业贷款拖欠10天前中野生尖峰一个迹象，表明在短期Shibor为基准借贷
利率，流动性突然干涸。 “通常情况下，应力在外围开始，移动到核心
而这正是我们已经看到与信托产品违约，“她说。
惠誉警告说，财富管理产品的价值2万亿美元的贷款现实中“隐藏的第二资产负债表”
，让他们为银行规避贷款限制措施和闪避监管机构的努力，以制止过激行为。
这个利基是震中的风险。超过一半的贷款必须回滚每3个月，在不到半年的另一25PC。
这有北岩相呼应，雷曼兄弟和其他人来到悲痛西方对批发资本市场冻结时的短期负债。
朱太太说，银行已被迫停放超过3万亿美元的储备在央行，给他们一个“庞大的储蓄账
户，可以“在危机中提取，但是这可能是不够的，以避免麻烦给规模庞大的贷款热潮。
自雷曼整体信贷已经从9万亿美元230000亿美元危机。 “他们复制了整个美国商业银行
体系五年来，“她说。
信贷占GDP的比例已经跃升了75个百分点200PC国内生产总值超过五年相比，在美国大约
40点领导到次贷泡沫，或之前在日本，日经指数在1990年泡沫破灭。 “
这已经超出了我们所见过的任何事情之前，在一个大的经济。我们不'知道这将如何发
挥出来。接下来的半年将是至关重要的，“她说。
该机构在中国的长期外币评级下调至AA-，债四月但仍然认为，政府可以处理任何的银
行业危机，但糟糕。“中国的国家有很多的火力，这是非常有能力和非常愿意支持银行
业。真正的问题是什么，这意味着增长，因此社会和政治风险，“朱太太说。
“有没有办法，他们可以长出来的，因为他们在他们的资产问题过去。我们认为这将是
非常不同的银行业危机20世纪90年代后期。在200PC GDP与信贷，分子增速的两倍尽可
能快的分母。你不能生长出来的。“
当局一直在努力，部署贷款管理软着陆路肩和高存款准备金率（RRR），银行停止物业
炒作。住房价格收入比已经达到16至18日在许多城市，关停的工人退出市场。影子银行
已经堵住了在过去两年多的差距。
然而，一个新问题又出现了信贷的经济效率崩溃。额外产生的国内生产总值增长率由每
个额外的元贷款从0.85下降到0.15在过去的四年里，一个疲惫的迹象。
魏姚明从法国兴业说，中国的债务服务比率公司已达到国内生产总值30PC金融 - 典型
的门槛危机 - 很多人会无法支付利息或偿还本金。她警告该国可能是一个“明斯基时
刻”的边缘，当债务金字塔坍塌根据其自身的重量。 “债务雪球越来越越做越大，没
有实际活动作出贡献，“她说。
的最新转折是突然在隔夜拆借市场的压力。 “我们相信在过去三个月中的一系列紧缩
政策措施已达到临界质量，这样，在银行业去杠杆化发生。流动性紧缩是非常有害的高
杠杆经济“，来自野村证券的张智威说。
“有房下调利率和存款准备金率在第二一半写道：“今天头版社论在”中国证券报“周
五这篇文章是第一个迹象，当局正准备改弦易辙，转向更宽松的立场后，小雨的坏数据
最近几个星期。
该杂志说，中国的金融体系信贷总额可能高达221pc GDP，跳跃几乎八倍在过去十年中
，并警告说，公司将不得不掏钱购买1万亿美元的利息支付独此一年。“中国企业的债
务负担远高于其他经济。大部分的流动性正被用来偿还债务和不
资金输出，“它说。
它也标记热钱外流的担忧，一旦美国联邦储备开始收紧。 “中国将面临大规模的资本
流出，如果有一个出口，从量化宽松政策，美元走强，“写道。
该杂志说，外国从中国股票基金中提款创下自2008年初以来，在全周上涨到6月5日，从
香港和取款香港基金在十年最。 |
d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 3 估计要经济停滞好多年，汇率又那么高。
唯一增长的希望就是美国经济恢复，中国对美国猛出口，所以还是人民币贬值比较好。 |
S***a
发帖数: 3956 | 4 中国在很多消费领域都已经或即将超过美国。
【在 d*****s 的大作中提到】
: 估计要经济停滞好多年，汇率又那么高。
: 唯一增长的希望就是美国经济恢复，中国对美国猛出口，所以还是人民币贬值比较好。
|
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 5 This is very unlikely.
【在 d*****s 的大作中提到】
: 估计要经济停滞好多年，汇率又那么高。
: 唯一增长的希望就是美国经济恢复，中国对美国猛出口，所以还是人民币贬值比较好。
|
S***a
发帖数: 3956 | 6 4月美国对中国的出口额下降4.7%。但4月美国从中国的进口激增了21.2%；美对中贸易
逆差从3月的179亿美元升高到4月的241亿美元
【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: This is very unlikely.
|
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 7 Source of your data, please?
【在 S***a 的大作中提到】
: 4月美国对中国的出口额下降4.7%。但4月美国从中国的进口激增了21.2%；美对中贸易
: 逆差从3月的179亿美元升高到4月的241亿美元
|
S***a
发帖数: 3956 | 8 http://wallstreetcn.com/node/25443
【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: Source of your data, please?
|
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 9 You implied that China can still count on supersizing its export-oriented
economy in a hope to solve most if not all of its socioeconomical problems,
right?
【在 S***a 的大作中提到】
: http://wallstreetcn.com/node/25443
|
h***y
发帖数: 4936 | 10 最近the economist在吹风说人民币兑美元太高了。 |
|
|
S***a
发帖数: 3956 | 11 中国对美出口一路暴涨是客观事实。不需要谁来imply
,
【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: You implied that China can still count on supersizing its export-oriented
: economy in a hope to solve most if not all of its socioeconomical problems,
: right?
|
S***a
发帖数: 3956 | 12 人民币兑美元汇率跟中国对美国出口一直是强烈的正相关性。升得越高美国越惨。
【在 h***y 的大作中提到】
: 最近the economist在吹风说人民币兑美元太高了。
|
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 13 Can you please read my words again?
I was not questioning the accuracy of your data.
【在 S***a 的大作中提到】
: 中国对美出口一路暴涨是客观事实。不需要谁来imply
:
: ,
|
P****i
发帖数: 12972 | 14 这是为啥？
【在 S***a 的大作中提到】
: 人民币兑美元汇率跟中国对美国出口一直是强烈的正相关性。升得越高美国越惨。
|
S***a
发帖数: 3956 | 15 事实说明very likely
发信人: DSJS (DSJS), 信区: Military
标 题: Re: Fitch says China credit bubble unprecedented in modern
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jun 17 00:15:17 2013, 美东)
This is very unlikely.
【在 d*****s 的大作中提到】
: 估计要经济停滞好多年，汇率又那么高。
: 唯一增长的希望就是美国经济恢复，中国对美国猛出口，所以还是人民币贬值比较好。
|
S***a
发帖数: 3956 | 16 这是10年来的客观事实。原因其实不重要。
【在 P****i 的大作中提到】
: 这是为啥？
|
P****i
发帖数: 12972 | 17 分析一下
【在 S***a 的大作中提到】
: 这是10年来的客观事实。原因其实不重要。
|
S***a
发帖数: 3956 | 18 中国的制造业优势太大，缓慢的升值只能是让美国人花更多的美元来买同样多的东西而
已。
【在 P****i 的大作中提到】
: 分析一下
|
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 19 You still ignore my earlier question:
"You implied that China can still count on supersizing its export-oriented
economy in a hope to solve most if not all of its socioeconomical problems,
right?"
【在 S***a 的大作中提到】
: 事实说明very likely
: 发信人: DSJS (DSJS), 信区: Military
: 标 题: Re: Fitch says China credit bubble unprecedented in modern
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jun 17 00:15:17 2013, 美东)
: This is very unlikely.
|
S***a
发帖数: 3956 | 20 我只是反驳你前面的”very unlikely“。不imply任何东西。
【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: You still ignore my earlier question:
: "You implied that China can still count on supersizing its export-oriented
: economy in a hope to solve most if not all of its socioeconomical problems,
: right?"
|
|
|
P****i
发帖数: 12972 | 21 看来是美国对中国依赖严重
【在 S***a 的大作中提到】
: 中国的制造业优势太大，缓慢的升值只能是让美国人花更多的美元来买同样多的东西而
: 已。
|
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 22 OK
Point taken.
End of discussion.
【在 S***a 的大作中提到】
: 我只是反驳你前面的”very unlikely“。不imply任何东西。
|
P****i
发帖数: 12972 | 23 被打脸咯
【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: OK
: Point taken.
: End of discussion.
|
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 24 How?
He keeps ignoring my more important question to him. That is telling
something.
【在 P****i 的大作中提到】
: 被打脸咯
|
P****i
发帖数: 12972 | 25 你那是转进
先前认为unlikely的事情已经被打脸，后面搞个破问题转进而已
【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: How?
: He keeps ignoring my more important question to him. That is telling
: something.
|
l***o
发帖数: 525 | 26 这是狗粮培训班的教程
【在 P****i 的大作中提到】
: 你那是转进
: 先前认为unlikely的事情已经被打脸，后面搞个破问题转进而已
|
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 27 "破问题"??
That is a hefty question every common-sensical Chinese should ask.
As for the "likely/unlikely" question, it is indeed just a technical one.
What is more, that ID offered a data point ONLY for April. This is hardly
convincing at all. This is also why I did not even bother to comment further
on his words.
I knew exactly clearly why that ID ignored my other questions: because he
knew the answer would be a slap on his face.
【在 P****i 的大作中提到】
: 你那是转进
: 先前认为unlikely的事情已经被打脸，后面搞个破问题转进而已
|
P****i
发帖数: 12972 | 28 靠，脸皮可真厚
further
【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: "破问题"??
: That is a hefty question every common-sensical Chinese should ask.
: As for the "likely/unlikely" question, it is indeed just a technical one.
: What is more, that ID offered a data point ONLY for April. This is hardly
: convincing at all. This is also why I did not even bother to comment further
: on his words.
: I knew exactly clearly why that ID ignored my other questions: because he
: knew the answer would be a slap on his face.
|
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 29 If all you can say is some bullshit like this, then you should probably just
f**k off.
【在 P****i 的大作中提到】
: 靠，脸皮可真厚
:
: further
|
P****i
发帖数: 12972 | 30 你说一千道一万就是让人用事实打脸
你问问题人都懒得搭理你，还真以为别人怕你
你不是脸皮厚是啥？你这破烂英语还是好好回去练练再出来现吧。
just
【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: If all you can say is some bullshit like this, then you should probably just
: f**k off.
|
|
|
T******t
发帖数: 458 | 31 Let's just say you did not hide your stupidity well.
just
【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: If all you can say is some bullshit like this, then you should probably just
: f**k off.
|
m********5
发帖数: 17667 | 32 你脸皮太厚了
我看不下去了
further
【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: "破问题"??
: That is a hefty question every common-sensical Chinese should ask.
: As for the "likely/unlikely" question, it is indeed just a technical one.
: What is more, that ID offered a data point ONLY for April. This is hardly
: convincing at all. This is also why I did not even bother to comment further
: on his words.
: I knew exactly clearly why that ID ignored my other questions: because he
: knew the answer would be a slap on his face.
|
t*****9
发帖数: 10416 | 33 土共应该让影子银行上市，市值一定毒霸地球 ～～～～～～～～～～～～～～lol |
q***7
发帖数: 2011 | 34 哈哈，一针见血
【在 P****i 的大作中提到】
: 你那是转进
: 先前认为unlikely的事情已经被打脸，后面搞个破问题转进而已
|
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 35 Yeah, "毒"霸全球,必须的.
【在 t*****9 的大作中提到】
: 土共应该让影子银行上市，市值一定毒霸地球 ～～～～～～～～～～～～～～lol
|
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 36 Let's just say all you ZG5's know nothing but bs-ing.
【在 T******t 的大作中提到】
: Let's just say you did not hide your stupidity well.
:
: just
|
D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 37 我"破烂"英语?
你怎么不秀秀你的英语如何更好?
你这种狗屁,连形而上的讨论能力都不具备
躲在角落里,偶尔露出臭气熏天的狗头徒然狂吠几下罢了.
【在 P****i 的大作中提到】
: 你说一千道一万就是让人用事实打脸
: 你问问题人都懒得搭理你，还真以为别人怕你
: 你不是脸皮厚是啥？你这破烂英语还是好好回去练练再出来现吧。
:
: just
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h***y
发帖数: 4936 | 38 shaka的观点我不都同意，但从头看到尾，他的话没有任何你说的implication，完全是
你臆想的。事实上出口增长也并不意味着就完全倚靠出口解决问题，你imply的那个结
论也是强行塞给他的。最关键的一点，你问他的那个问题和你们之前的讨论完全无关。
而且你问他是不是imply那个结论，他给出了回答说不imply任何东西，你怎么能说他
ignore你的问题呢？
further
【在 D**S 的大作中提到】
: "破问题"??
: That is a hefty question every common-sensical Chinese should ask.
: As for the "likely/unlikely" question, it is indeed just a technical one.
: What is more, that ID offered a data point ONLY for April. This is hardly
: convincing at all. This is also why I did not even bother to comment further
: on his words.
: I knew exactly clearly why that ID ignored my other questions: because he
: knew the answer would be a slap on his face.
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