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发帖数: 536 | 1 新出炉国产大型运输机Y-20卫星照片,由美帝卫星于去年１２月２５日在西安阎良机场
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Satellites Spot China’s Mysterious New Warplane
By David Axe01.04.136:38 PM
A week after the publication of blurry photographs depicting what appears to
be China’s first long-range jet transport, Danger Room has obtained
satellite imagery of the new plane at an airfield in central China.
The images, acquired by the GeoEye 1 and IKONOS spacecraft — both belonging
to commercial satellite operator GeoEye headquartered in Washington, D.C.
— corroborate the general layout of the Xian Aircraft Corporation Y-20, the
existence of which has been confirmed by Beijing. They also underscore the
emerging consensus among Western experts that the Y-20, while outwardly
impressive, could lack the performance of even much older American, Russian
and European transports.
The IKONOS image (below) is dated Dec. 25. It shows the Y-20 outside a large
hangar at Yanliang airfield, home of the People’s Liberation Army Air
Force’s test establishment. The base is crowded with examples of the PLAAF
’s other main transports, including Y-8 medium airlifters and, apparently,
tanker versions of the aged H-6 bomber — both types of which could in
theory be replaced by the Y-20, ostensibly giving China the same global
military reach the U.S. and other advanced nations have enjoyed for half a
century.
The GeoEye 1 photo from Jan. 1 (above) depicts the new transport, which isn
’t known to have flown yet, on one of Yanliang’s runways, surrounded by
people and vehicles. News reports have claimed the Y-20 is currently
undergoing runway taxi tests in preparation for its eventual first flight.
But even after that happens, the Y-20 will probably need lots of work.
Indeed, when it comes to jet-transport technology Beijing is “falling
behind, not catching up,” John Pike, an analyst with the Virginia-based
Globalstrategy.org, writes in an e-mail to Danger Room.
Specifically, the Y-20 needs new engines — and there’s little evidence
that Beijing is making much progress on that front. The prototype is
reportedly fitted with old, Russian-made D-30 engines that probably aren’t
adequate for the Y-20′s design.
The new imagery is sharper, more detailed and shot from a higher angle than
the grainy first photos of the Y-20 that appeared on Chinese internet forums
in late December, providing a much more reliable basis for assessing the
transport’s layout. Apparently slightly smaller than the U.S. Air Force’s
workhorse C-17, the Y-20 sports the same wide swept wing and T-shaped tail
as the Boeing-made C-17, blueprints of which China obtained several years
ago through a spy working for the Chicago-based plane manufacturer.
“In order to get the kind of range/payload capabilities you need to use
this type of plane, it all comes down to the engines,” Richard Aboulafia,
an analyst with Virginia market forecaster The Teal Group, emails Danger
Room. “Designing a large, high-bypass turbofan is even harder than
designing a combat engine [for jet fighters],” Aboulafia adds. “China
shows no signs of being able to do that.”
There are only four companies in the world capable of building the kind of
engines the Y-20 needs, Aboulafia says: three — GE/CFM, Rolls Royce and
Pratt & Whitney — are Western companies and one is Russian. Arms controls
in the West make it unlikely that Beijing will be able to source the Y-20′s
motors from the former firms.
“In short, there are three possible explanations,” Aboulafia continues. ”
One, this is just a prototype, or series of prototypes. Two, it will be
built in series production, using a domestically-built knockoff engine that
will result in a very short-range plane with a light payload. Three, they’
ll do a deal with the Russians to start importing engines that can turn this
into a Chinese copy of a former Soviet transport design.”
But even a copy of an older Soviet transport would likely feature only
modest performance compared to more modern, unique designs. Moreover, Russia
has been reluctant lately to sell engines to China, justifiably fearing
that Beijing’s engineers will illegally reverse-engineer the motors.
All of which means the Y-20, so far, is more show than substance — an
intriguing subject for internet forums and passing satellites, but not yet a
threat to the transportation dominance of the U.S., Russia and Europe. | a*p
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