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发帖数: 310 | 1 这说法也太不靠谱了吧？
Q: If China goes into a major recession, what effects will this have on the
U.S.?
Dohmen: This will be like a tsunami going through the economies of the globe
. China has been the big locomotive for the world economy. China’s stimulus
was four times the size per GDP than that of the U.S. They were four times
as aggressive as the U.S. Fed in stimulating their economy. This caused a
commodities rebound, stock market rebound, etc. Australia was also affected
by China’s demand for commodities.
Looking forward, I can’t understand where any good news is going to come
from. We have our analysis and scenarios we go through and every day we
review everything and ask if anything has changed that would make us wrong
in our predicdtions or confirm our analysis. Today we found out that China
has cancelled a 300 ton soybeans order from the U.S. What does it mean? Does
China have too many soybeans? Are the Chinese people not hungry? Are prices
too high?
Another factor is that we have some proverbial ‘canaries in the mine’ in
that China is trying to conserve foreign currency outflows. When China buys
goods from West they pay in foreign currency, not renminbi. Are they
starting to conserve foreign currencies because they’re being depleted of
all that’s leaving the country? We’re seeing cancellations and reductions
in China left and right. One of our clients sells high grade seafood to
China. He told us recently that a big order from a major client from China
was cancelled because they couldn’t get dollars, foreign currency, from
their bank. |
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