R****a
发帖数: 6858 | 1 古风解读中日钓鱼岛争端的背后经济因素 2012-09-18 12:39:33
【古风按】在中日钓鱼岛争斗正酣之时，让我们来对比一下中日手中持有的美国国债的
数量情况（见下图），也许从中我们可以窥见一些国际风云的来龙去脉。下图中红线显
示中国自从2011年头以来的美国国债持有量，而蓝线是日本的数据。很明显，中国一直
在卖出，日本一直在买入。大家也许会问：中国卖出的美债，谁接盘了呢？回答这个问
题，其实很容易。如果把下图中的红线与蓝线来个二合一，大家马上就会发现：中日总
拥有的美债数量几乎没变！这说明：中国不要的，日本（被美国胁迫）都吃进了（仔细
看数据，日本还多买了1千6百多亿美债）。唉！日本这个冤大头啊！再考虑到中国每年
积累的巨额外贸顺差，一个很有意思的问题就出现了：中国累积的美元都去哪里啦？呵
呵......都去买黄金了（请参阅最下面的相关资讯）。中国政府上一次公开自己的黄金
储备是在2009年4月份，当时中国只有一千多吨黄金。在2009年岁末的一次国家战略会
议上，中国决定用3－5年的时间（2013－2015），把黄金储备提升到六千吨的水平，8
－10年后（2017－2019）中国将拥有一万吨的黄金储备（与美国的持平）。这些其实都
是在为后美元时代再次出现以黄金储备为基准的新国际货币体系作准备了。据保守的估
计（比如仅仅查看大陆透过香港进口的黄金数额），中国目前的黄金储备应该已达三千
多吨了，极有可能已经超过了德国，成为了世界第二大黄金储备国。当然，如果把中国
从其他不公开的渠道进口的黄金数量和中国国内每年自产的黄金（仅2009年就已达三百
吨）都考虑进去，中国的黄金储备应该已接近甚至超过五千吨的额度了。这就是为何中
国现在敢于在钓鱼岛的争端中，迎头痛击美国（军事亮剑与金融打击石油美元）和日本
（保持军事压力和举起经济大棒）的根本原因了。2008年西方金融危机爆发以来，经过
了四年的高速发展，中国的确真正强大起来了！ | R****a
发帖数: 6858 | 2 古风解读中国所持美债额度为何下降 2012-04-11 09:24:09
【古风按】从去年八月份以来，中国所持美债额度就开始稳步下降，到了岁末更是一次
性地卖出了1千多亿元的美债（见上图）！同时，大家都知道中国一直是个国际贸易顺
差国，每年都要积累巨额的外储，可是，为何到了2011年中后期，外储不见涨了呢？原
来，猫腻就在黄金之中（见下图）：中国政府正在通过香港的渠道在国际黄金市场上大
力收购黄金，为即将到来的美元体系崩溃和国际新的黄金货币挂钩体制做准备了。作为
个人投资人，古风也一直在极力建议大家去投资黄金。如果您有真金白银，就把实货存
到香港的银行里去。因为一旦现行的美元体系崩溃，美国政府就会重新干起罗斯福总统
以前在大萧条时期干过的活：搜缴美国民间的金银，充实国库。大家不可不防啊。
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chinese-gold-imports-hong-kong-ri
Chinese Gold Imports From Hong Kong Rise Nearly 13 Fold
by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, 11 April 2012
Chinese gold demand remains very strong as seen in the importation of 40
metric tonnes or nearly 40,000 kilos of gold bullion from Hong Kong alone in
February.
Hong Kong’s gold exports to China in February were nearly 13 times higher
than the 3,115 kilograms in the same month last year, the data shows.
Shipments were 72,617 kilograms in the first two months, compared with 10,
564 kilograms a year ago or nearly a seven fold increase from the record
levels seen last year.
China’s appetite for gold remains strong and Chinese demand alone is likely
to put a floor under the gold market.
Mainland China bought 39,668 kilograms (39.668 metric tons), up from 32,948
kilograms in January, according to export data from the Census and
Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government.
Demand has picked up again after the Lunar New Year and demand has climbed
in China as rising incomes and concerns about inflation lead to store of
value buying.
There is also a concern about the Chinese stock market which has gone
sideways since 2001 and increasing concerns that various property markets in
China look like bubbles ready to burst.
Consumer demand for gold beat India for the first time in almost three years
in the fourth quarter and China may replace India as the biggest buyer
annually this year.
The massive gold purchases may signal the People’s Bank of China is
continuing to secretly accumulate gold reserves.
Reuters report that there are suspicions that the number could include
purchases from the public sector, as the market was largely quiet during a
post-Lunar New Year holiday slump in February. "On the public level, China's
central bank will continue to accumulate gold, which is easier than
liberalising their capital account and currency," said Friesen of SocGen,
adding that building gold reserves would help China's push to turn the
renminbi into a global currency.
Accommodative monetary policy will remain an incentive for private investors
to buy into gold, he added.
The nation last made its reserves known more than two years ago, stating
them to be 1,054 tons.
The PBOC’s gold reserves remain small compared to those of the Federal
Reserve and many European nations. Their gold reserves remain tiny when
compared to their massive foreign exchange reserves of $3.2 Trillion.
It is important to note that in past years, Hong Kong gold imports have
accounted for about half of China's total gold imports. China itself doesn’
t publish gold import data and the very high and increasing demand from Hong
Kong is only a component of overall Chinese demand.
The per capita consumption of 1.3 billion people continues to increase from
a near zero base meaning that this is indeed a paradigm shift and not a blip
or ‘flash in the pan’.
It means that gold will likely see record nominal highs - possibly before
the end of the year.
Prudent western buyers wishing to protect and grow wealth will again buy
gold on the dip as the Chinese are doing. |
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