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Military版 - China Gets Worst Ranking in Global Poll Since 2010
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话题: poll话题: percent话题: china话题: may话题: global
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b******r
发帖数: 1619
1
Global investors are losing faith in China, giving the country’s markets
their worst rating in more than two years in the latest Bloomberg poll.
About a quarter of those surveyed say they expect Chinese markets to be
among the worst performers over the next year. That’s the highest negative
reading that the country has received in the quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll
since January 2010 and was second only to the 45 percent rating that the
European Union received in the Sept. 4 survey.
Enlarge image China Gets Worst Rating From Investors
Investor enthusiasm for China has since waned as growth has slackened, first
in reaction to government efforts to contain inflation and puncture a
property price bubble, and more recently due to a slowdown in Europe.
Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg
Chart: Poll Results
Attachment: Poll Results
Enlarge image China Loses Confidence in Global Poll With Worst Rank Since ’
10
A woman carrying produce for sale walks past newly built residential housing
in Changsha, Hunan Province, China. Gross domestic product rose 7.6 percent
last quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace in three years.
Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg
China “will suffer disproportionately from a global slowdown in growth,”
said Benjamin Dunn, a poll participant and chief operating officer in
Crested Butte, Colorado, for portfolio management company Alpha Theory, in
an e-mail. It “will be unable to prevent a hard landing” of its economy.
The U.S. again came out on top in the poll of 847 investors, analysts and
traders who are Bloomberg subscribers: 46 percent say its markets will be
among those offering the best returns over the next year, the same as in the
previous survey in May. Close to three-quarters expect the Federal Reserve
to act next week to support the economy, either by extending its pledge of
low interest rates, buying bonds, or by doing both.
Commodities in general and gold in particular gained favor with investors in
the poll. Eighteen percent of those surveyed expect commodities to offer
the highest returns over the next year. That’s up from 13 percent in May
and was second only to stocks, which won the backing of a third of investors
. Gold came in third, with 16 percent, up from 11 percent in May.
Commodity Prices
“Monetary easing by global central banks will push commodity prices higher,
” Anuraj Benara, a poll respondent and senior manager of institutional
equity sales for SMC Global Securities in Mumbai, India, said in an e-mail.
Some investors also are turning bullish on crisis-racked Europe, though a
greater percentage remains bearish. More than one in five picked EU markets
as among those that will offer the best returns over the next year. That’s
the highest reading for the region since the poll began in 2009 and was
second only to the U.S. in the latest survey, which was taken before the
European Central Bank decided yesterday on an unlimited bond- purchase
program. Brazil was third and China fourth in the poll.
China was a favorite of global investors in the wake of 2008-09 financial
crisis, as stepped-up government spending and interest rate cuts powered the
economy to a year-over-year growth rate of 11.9 percent in the first
quarter of 2010.
Enthusiasm Waned
Investor enthusiasm for the country has since waned as growth has slackened,
first in reaction to government efforts to contain inflation and puncture a
property price bubble, and more recently due to a slowdown in Europe. Gross
domestic product rose 7.6 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the
slowest pace in three years.
More than three of five poll respondents described the Chinese economy as
deteriorating, up from less than one in three in May. One-third rated the
risk of a hard landing as high, up from 23 percent in May. Another 44
percent saw it as a “medium threat.”
Outgoing Communist Party chief Hu Jintao has held back on steps to spur the
slowing economy, raising the risk that the country will miss its 7.5 percent
growth target for this year.
“The changing of the political guard in China has slowed the government’s
stimulus response,” Kim Caughey Forrest, senior equity analyst for Fort
Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh, who took part in the poll, said in an e-
mail. “It’s pretty clear that current leadership is not going to start new
programs, so the lag time is even longer on any stimulus.”
Standing Suffered
Hu’s standing with investors has suffered ahead of the leadership change
later this year. Two in five voiced pessimism about the impact of his
policies on the investment climate in the country. That’s up from less than
one in three in May and is the highest negative reading since the poll
began asking that question two years ago.
“The political environment in China is more favorable to hiding real
problems” such as the growing level of non- performing bank loans, said
Kevin Guezo, who oversees foreign exchange and interest rate derivative
sales at Credit Mutuel Arkea, a French cooperative bank in Lyon, France.
Guezo took part in the poll and shared his views in an e-mail.
Investors also have turned more pessimistic about the global economy. About
half described it as deteriorating, compared with 37 percent who said that
in the last poll. Those in the U.S. were the most downbeat.
Investor Assessments
The poll also reflects an erosion in investor assessments of the U.S.
economy, with 22 percent saying the economy is deteriorating, compared with
18 percent who said that in May.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is expected to take further steps
to promote growth at the central bank’s meeting on Sept. 12-13, according
to the poll. More than one in three of those surveyed look for another round
of quantitative easing, or bond buying, from the central bank.
Bernanke has made “it patently clear that the Fed will take any action it
feels it needs to to try and address its mandate -- full employment and
stable prices,” Forrest said. “Given the economy has probably slowed, from
all the signs we observe in government and company data, we think he” will
go ahead with QE.
The Fed, which cut its target for the federal funds rate to zero to 0.25
percent in December 2008, has said it expects to keep the overnight
interbank lending rate “exceptionally low” at least through late 2014. A
majority of investors polled do not see the Fed raising rates before 2015,
with 16 percent saying an increase won’t come until 2016 or later.
Housing Market
The low rates have helped the housing market. The S&P/Case- Shiller index of
home prices in 20 cities climbed in June from a year earlier, the first
gain since September 2010, according to a report from the group last month.
Forty-six percent of investors surveyed expect U.S. house prices to increase
further in the next six months. Only 14 percent see them falling.
Investor enthusiasm for stocks ebbed in the latest survey. Thirty-seven
percent say they plan to increase their holdings of equities in the next six
months, down from 40 percent in May and the lowest since that question was
first asked in 2010.
The increased caution is most evident when it comes to Asian markets. One
third forecast that the MSCI Asia Pacific Index will be higher six months
from now -- the least bullish reading in almost two years. The stock gauge
rose 0.1 percent yesterday to 115.94 after falling on Wednesday to its
lowest level since July 27.
Gold Attractive
An increasing number of investors are attracted to gold, according to the
poll. A majority expect gold prices to be higher in six months’ time, while
about one in three intends to increase their holdings of the yellow metal.
Gold prices rose to the highest since March yesterday after the ECB’s bond-
purchase decision. Futures for December delivery gained 0.7 percent to
settle at $1,705.60 an ounce at 1:45 p.m. on the Comex in New York.
Oil is also gaining favor among investors, according to the poll. One in
five plan to increase their exposure to oil in their portfolios over the
next six months, up from 14 percent in May.
More than two in five see prices rising over that time frame, roughly double
the amount who project them falling. Crude oil for October delivery
advanced 17 cents to settle at $95.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange yesterday.
Twenty percent rate the risk of a Middle East war as high, up from 15
percent in May.
As has been the case since October 2009, bonds were picked as the asset
class projected to have the worst returns over the next year.
The Bloomberg Global Poll was conducted by Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-
based firm. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage
points
p******u
发帖数: 14642
2
不撤资是小狗

negative
Poll
first

【在 b******r 的大作中提到】
: Global investors are losing faith in China, giving the country’s markets
: their worst rating in more than two years in the latest Bloomberg poll.
: About a quarter of those surveyed say they expect Chinese markets to be
: among the worst performers over the next year. That’s the highest negative
: reading that the country has received in the quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll
: since January 2010 and was second only to the 45 percent rating that the
: European Union received in the Sept. 4 survey.
: Enlarge image China Gets Worst Rating From Investors
: Investor enthusiasm for China has since waned as growth has slackened, first
: in reaction to government efforts to contain inflation and puncture a

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相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: poll话题: percent话题: china话题: may话题: global