p******u
发帖数: 14642 | 1 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230463640457728910
India's high growth rates of the past decade are slipping away, but you
wouldn't know it from the way Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee keeps
spending. On Friday his budget offered nothing in the way of pro-growth
reforms, but continued to enlarge welfare spending. The only way Delhi can
keep this up is by gouging taxpayers.
Both the stock and bond markets were hoping for better, and immediately gave
the budget a thumbs down. Growth in 2011-12 is the worst on record in the
past nine years, and the latest quarter clocked 6.1% growth year-on-year.
Manufacturing is most severely hit as corporate investment, the driver
behind the previous decade's growth, stalls.
Mr. Mukherjee is offering only targeted sops in response. Since 2009, New
Delhi has imposed fresh diktats in areas like the environment, and hasn't
deregulated a single major industry that could open up new opportunities.
When Prime Minister Manmohan Singh tried to allow foreign investment in
retail last year, opposition MPs had only to open their mouths and the
government ran for cover.
Many economists suspect the result is a 7%-growth track—a downturn that
changes calculations for everyone, especially the political class. Fattened
off the tax revenues 9% to 10% growth generated, the ruling Congress Party
threw the biggest welfare bash since 1991, pushing up social spending to 18.
5% of Delhi's total expenditure today. It promised employment to the rural
poor starting in 2005 and recently introduced legislation for a "right to
food" that would expand subsidies.
Enlarge Image
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Indian finance minister Pranab Mukherjee arrives at parliament prior to
presenting the national budget in New Delhi.
Such entitlements are not easy to reverse, despite Mr. Mukherjee's talk of "
taking hard decisions." He has allocated less for the rural jobs scheme next
year, yet Jairam Ramesh, the minister who oversees this program, admitted
last month that this is "meaningless." The law requires Delhi to supply jobs
whenever workers demand them. Likewise, as long as Mr. Mukherjee promises
to sell oil or food at a fixed price, he has to spend whatever it takes,
even if global commodity prices spike. Last year he budgeted 1.5% of GDP for
subsidies, but ended up spending 2.5%.
Until Congress brings entitlements and subsidies under control, the welfare-
spending party will go on—and someone will have to pay for it. Tax revenues
slumped after the financial crisis and then again last year, so the
government made it up by borrowing heavily. Such profligacy has scared bond
investors into raising yields.
The only real "hard decision" left then is raising taxes, which was
precisely Mr. Mukherjee's tack Friday. India's biggest single source of
revenue is corporations, and it's no wonder that the budget tinkers the tax
code to enable officials to more aggressively pursue firms. The service tax
and excise duty are going up to cover "our vast commitments."
Mr. Mukherjee is so keen to extract revenue that he now proposes a
retroactive change allowing Delhi to fleece foreign investors who previously
slipped the tax net. In January, the Supreme Court struck down the taxman's
attempts to take a cut from U.K.-based Vodafone for a transaction that took
place outside India. The government now wants to make all offshore
transactions liable for capital gains tax.
Through all this, the finance minister thinks he can rake in 20% more in
receipts next year. This assumes taxpayers won't change their behavior as
the screws are turned on them. Good luck with that.
For the last decade the Congress Party simply assumed that the pie would
keep growing without new reforms, and it could redistribute a bigger part of
that pie. India's slowing economy has finally exposed that myth. | p******u
发帖数: 14642 | 2 三锅给穷人的补贴要是跟不上就更多民粪，但经济不景气却导致税收跟不上。三锅难啊
gave
【在 p******u 的大作中提到】
: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230463640457728910
: India's high growth rates of the past decade are slipping away, but you
: wouldn't know it from the way Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee keeps
: spending. On Friday his budget offered nothing in the way of pro-growth
: reforms, but continued to enlarge welfare spending. The only way Delhi can
: keep this up is by gouging taxpayers.
: Both the stock and bond markets were hoping for better, and immediately gave
: the budget a thumbs down. Growth in 2011-12 is the worst on record in the
: past nine years, and the latest quarter clocked 6.1% growth year-on-year.
: Manufacturing is most severely hit as corporate investment, the driver
| m**********n
发帖数: 27535 | 3 选下去就景气了，体制优势
【在 p******u 的大作中提到】
: 三锅给穷人的补贴要是跟不上就更多民粪，但经济不景气却导致税收跟不上。三锅难啊
:
: gave
| n******7
发帖数: 5678 | 4 看成Feeling India's Breast | s**********m
发帖数: 1263 | 5 哈哈
【在 n******7 的大作中提到】
: 看成Feeling India's Breast
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