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发帖数: 30882 | 1 美国所谓的制造业回流与复苏原来又是吹出来的泡泡
来源: nWAY 于 2012-02-01 23:13:54 [档案] [博客] 旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话
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论主题
http://ablog.typepad.com/keytrendsinglobalisation/2012/01/myth.
The myth of US industrial revival
by John Ross, 31 January 2012
Currently a number of attempts are being made to claim a major revival of US
industry is taking place. For example Harold L. Sirkin, of the Boston
Consulting Group, writes: ‘A resurgence of U.S. manufacturing seems to be
in the offing. With production costs rising in China, some companies are
bringing their manufacturing back to the U.S.... That's partly confirmed by
the data: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) recently reported that U
.S. manufacturing had expanded for 24 consecutive months. Likewise, the
Federal Reserve reported a 0.6% increase in manufacturing in July 2011, with
a year-on-year gain of 3.8%.’ Washington Post columnist Vivek Wadha claims
and it will soon by China's turn to worry.’
It is therefore important to be clear that these claims are a myth. As may
be seen in Figure 1 US industrial production has not even regained pre-
financial crisis levels. In December 2011, the latest available data, US
industrial production was 5.4 per cent below its peak in the previous
business cycle. Equally striking, for the long term, is that since June 2000
, the peak of the last but one business cycle, average annual US industrial
growth has been only 0.3 per cent. In short, far from a ‘rebirth’ of US
industry occurring, US industrial production has scarcely grown for over a
decade and so far in the present business cycle it has not even regained its
previous peak level of output. On the latest monthly data it would take US
industry two years to regain its previous peak output.
Figure 1
12 01 25 Industrial Production
Sirkin presents as evidence to justify his claims: ‘Volkswagen, for example
, recently opened a new $1-billion factory in Chattanooga, Tennessee;
Embraer, the Brazilian manufacturer of mid-size commuter jets, recently
opened an assembly plant in Melbourne, Florida; and Mitsubishi Nuclear
Energy Systems, which builds nuclear power plants and components, is
locating a new engineering center in Charlotte, North Carolina.’ Publicity
was given by others to a US company exporting chopsticks to China.
Unfortunately presentation of individual examples proves nothing. Industrial
production is an aggregate, an average of different movements by companies.
There will therefore always necessarily be cases above and below the
average. Finding individual companies which are expanding, whether in
chopsticks or anything else, therefore doesn't constitute proof – even if
US industry were sharply declining individual expanding companies may well
exist.
Sirkin's statistic that US manufacturing has been expanding for 24 months
also doesn't prove anything. Choosing particular starting dates, rather than
considering the overall trend, has a well understood effect in distorting
analysis. For example take 1933, the depth of the Great Depression, as a
starting point for measuring US economic growth during the 1930s. By 1939
the US economy had expanded by 50 per cent. Solely from this one might
conclude that the 1930s were a period of prosperity, whereas actually they
were the worst decade in US economic history. The statistical distortion is
to measure from the lowest point of the business cycle, ignoring the
enormous fall in US GDP which took place in 1929-33. To avoid such
statistical distortion economic analysis must state what points in the
business cycle it is comparing and consider the economic process as a whole.
To see how this error distorts perception of US industry note that by the
time US industrial output reached its bottom in the present recession, in
June 2009, it had to grow by 21 per cent to regain its previous peak output.
By December 2012, which indeed was after two and a half years of expansion,
the increase was 14 per cent. Such an expansion of 14 per cent might sound
impressive – it is a growth of over five per cent a year. But such an‘
optimistic’conclusion distorts the reality – because 21 per cent growth
was required to even regain the previous peak level of production!
Apple's Steve Jobs stated the reality of US manufacturing reality at a
dinner with President Obama last February. Asked what would shift iPhone
production to the US, Jobs bluntly replied ‘those jobs aren't coming back’.
US manufacturing ‘rebirth’ can only be claimed when there is statistical
evidence to support it, not when output has not even regained previous peak
levels. | k*********t
发帖数: 2999 | 2 要选举了，不吹泡泡怎么赢呀？呵呵
US
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: 美国所谓的制造业回流与复苏原来又是吹出来的泡泡
: 来源: nWAY 于 2012-02-01 23:13:54 [档案] [博客] 旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话
: ] 本文已被阅读：433次
: 字体：调大/调小/重置 | 加入书签 | 打印 | 所有跟帖 | 加跟贴 | 查看当前最热讨
: 论主题
: http://ablog.typepad.com/keytrendsinglobalisation/2012/01/myth.
: The myth of US industrial revival
: by John Ross, 31 January 2012
: Currently a number of attempts are being made to claim a major revival of US
: industry is taking place. For example Harold L. Sirkin, of the Boston
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