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发帖数: 4825 | 1 http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/12/watching-north-ko
IN ORDINARY times, the North Korean consular office in Dandong, just over
the border in China, can be a hard place to find. It is located on the 21st
floor of the Jia Di Plaza, a riverside hotel and commercial complex. Neither
internet searches nor queries of building staff in the lobby yield much
information. But this week one needed only follow the trail of Chinese and
Korean visitors bearing flowers to pay their respects and bestow condolences
. It has been so ever since the December 19th announcement that North Korean
leader Kim Jong Il had died, two days earlier.
Some carried single stems, and others brought huge wreaths. They all chose
either white or yellow chrysanthemums, and they all had to queue up in the
crowded hallway outside the consulate. Once inside, they were allowed to
sign a registry, add their flowers to the pile, and spend a few moments
bowing their heads and in some cases muffling their sobs in front of a
framed photo portrait of Mr Kim. By mid-morning Wednesday, 315 visits had
been logged. A tight-lipped consular official said there had been heavier
traffic the day before, but declined to provide a number.
From its perch on the western bank of the Yalu river, Dandong boasts a
unique front-row view of the long-running horror show that is North Korea.
Though the distance to the Korean side is a mere 800 metres, there is not
all that much to see. In daylight, a few idle smokestacks loom above a
handful of dilapidated factories and other structures. Just near the Korean
end of a bridge joining the banks sits a forlorn and motionless Ferris wheel
. The night-time view may be even more revealing. There is near total
darkness, with only a few lit bulbs scattered along the entire length of the
riverfront.
But even with this close-up view, the steady flow of people and goods across
the Friendship Bridge that leads to the North Korean town of Sinuiju, and a
sizeable North Korean presence in their midst, the people of Dandong have
scarcely more insight than anyone else into what might be wrought by the
death of Mr Kim.
They do, however, have more cause for concern. Trade and tourism make
significant contributions to Dandong’s economy. According to Chinese
statistics, bilateral trade between China and North Korea in 2010 rose
nearly 30% year-on-year, to $3.47 billion, a record high. As much as 60% of
that trade is thought to move through Dandong. The official announcement of
Mr Kim’s death led to the prompt shuttering of Dandong’s many North Korean
-run restaurants, shops and trading companies.
The hope among the many people here who derive their livelihoods from
dealings with the neighbours across the river is that things will return to
normal with the end of the official mourning period after Mr Kim’s funeral
December 28th.
The fear is that they have no way of gauging the odds, especially with the
leadership transfer now under way to a largely untested man in his 20s, Kim
Jong Un, the deceased despot’s third son. “Anything could happen. It’s a
very strange place, and a very strange situation to have such a young person
taking over,” said the Chinese manager of a trading company who makes
frequent visits to North Korea.
The effects of any turmoil in North Korea—whether in the form of military
tension, unrest, or a swell of refugees—would be keenly felt here. But at
least in the first two days after the announcement of Mr Kim’s death, an
orderly calm prevailed. There was no sign of any extra police or military
presence. Traffic bustled along as usual through Dandong’s busy streets,
while in the riverside park pensioners flew kites and peddlers sold trinkets
and souvenirs. The only way your correspondent managed to hear any wailing
and gnashing of teeth was by tuning his car radio to AM 657, a North Korean
station, which alternated between sombre music and a grieving, distraught
announcer.
Despite rumours about an imminent shutdown of all cross-border traffic, a
stream of vehicles, including both large cargo trucks and light vans, made
its way across from the Chinese side on Wednesday morning. The situation was
much the same in the Yanbian border region, hundreds of kilometres north-
east of Dandong, according to local residents and Western diplomats who had
been poking around the area for information.
Outside the consulate, a North Korean trader who refused to identify himself
or his company said it was only appropriate in a time of mourning to
suspend normal trading activities. But, he hastened to add, things would
certainly return to normal. Dandong residents can only hope his prediction
bears out. Until then, they can at least take consolation in a boom in the
flower business. |
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