j**n
发帖数: 13789 | | c******2
发帖数: 4019 | | l**m
发帖数: 5113 | 3 我评价是中性偏好
当时如果不砸4万亿，下岗失业就是免不了的
那些乱叫的小白领估计也还不上贷款了，房子要被银行收走，连房奴都没资格当了
民工如果回乡，有地种的，有粮吃的，应该问题不大。
如果是失地农民，则可能先发生严重的偷抢活动（金融危机刚来，广东不少厂倒闭，结
果治安很快恶化），
当然，4万亿对通货膨胀有推动作用
【在 j**n 的大作中提到】
: 要是那个时候不砸4万亿会怎样？
| d**0
发帖数: 984 | | b*********k
发帖数: 118 | 5 There are two sub-problems here: (1) Do we need stimulus plan. (2) What is
the plan (what size, what industry sector, and etc.)
In the past, the government just mixed the two sub-problems together to
confuse people.
First, I believe stimulus plan is necessary at that moment, otherwise, the
shock of the unemployment and economic downturn might bring big trouble.
Second, 4 trillion (finally 9 trillion) is not a proper size. Our GDP is
roughly 35% of US at that moment, what is the reason to set up such a big
plan compared to the US plan (0.7 trillion dollars)? The government never
report to the public the necessary detail of such big plan. Do we remember
that some US congressmen and senators complained that the plan is too long
to review. In such files, we can clearly see what industry sector needs how
much money, and why that much. Do we have any reasonable plan to show the
rationality of such big package? NO! If the secretary put such plan without
any convinced explanation and calculation, he would have been fired for sure
. Because neither US congress nor senator would accept such irresponsible
and stupid secretary! Also, we cannot imagine lots of money was flowing to
the housing market. It would never take place in US, since any expense of
the plan is always under monitor. | S********8
发帖数: 4466 | 6 en,决策机制不透明是个问题；
至于谁流向housing market,这是必然的，中国这几年的经济就是靠这个在支撑的。
【在 b*********k 的大作中提到】
: There are two sub-problems here: (1) Do we need stimulus plan. (2) What is
: the plan (what size, what industry sector, and etc.)
: In the past, the government just mixed the two sub-problems together to
: confuse people.
: First, I believe stimulus plan is necessary at that moment, otherwise, the
: shock of the unemployment and economic downturn might bring big trouble.
: Second, 4 trillion (finally 9 trillion) is not a proper size. Our GDP is
: roughly 35% of US at that moment, what is the reason to set up such a big
: plan compared to the US plan (0.7 trillion dollars)? The government never
: report to the public the necessary detail of such big plan. Do we remember
| b*********k
发帖数: 118 | 7 Such plan is neither open nor scientific.
【在 S********8 的大作中提到】
: en,决策机制不透明是个问题；
: 至于谁流向housing market,这是必然的，中国这几年的经济就是靠这个在支撑的。
| b*A
发帖数: 1304 | 8 很好的分析。
关于刺激计划的必要性，我同意德国的做法：关健不是刺激(因为德国的经济体系并没有出问题)，而是减少政府开支、进行经济紧缩(很朴素的经济常识：量入为出)。这样虽然GDP暂时下来了，但是是自然的、健康的反应。你看德国现在经济很好！
中国的经济本来也没有问题(忽略一切不完美)，但是走了相反的路。现在真是热闹。准备金率都20%了，利率才3%；政府负债可能在50万亿以上；美国趁火打劫人民币不停升值、开始连续出现逆差；大学生失业率官方数字已经到了25%(刺激计划进入铁公鸡，反而打击了实体产业)。。。
【在 b*********k 的大作中提到】
: There are two sub-problems here: (1) Do we need stimulus plan. (2) What is
: the plan (what size, what industry sector, and etc.)
: In the past, the government just mixed the two sub-problems together to
: confuse people.
: First, I believe stimulus plan is necessary at that moment, otherwise, the
: shock of the unemployment and economic downturn might bring big trouble.
: Second, 4 trillion (finally 9 trillion) is not a proper size. Our GDP is
: roughly 35% of US at that moment, what is the reason to set up such a big
: plan compared to the US plan (0.7 trillion dollars)? The government never
: report to the public the necessary detail of such big plan. Do we remember
| s****c
发帖数: 11300 | 9 这段话说的非常好 我就不明白还有人为这个刺激计划唱赞歌
实际上中国当时经济非常健康 而且是一个很好的契机去打击高昂的房价 那么现在的经
济形态要好的多 但是4w亿砸下去 都进入了某些系统，老百姓一点好处也没有得到
没有出问题)，而是减少政府开支、进行经济紧缩(很朴素的经济常识：量入为出)。这
样虽然GDP暂时下来了，但是是自然的、健康的反应。你看德国现在经济很好！
准备金率都20%了，利率才3%；政府负债可能在50万亿以上；美国趁火打劫人民币不停
升值、开始连续出现逆差；大学生失业率官方数字已经到了25%(刺激计划进入铁公鸡，
反而打击了实体产业)。。。
【在 b*A 的大作中提到】
: 很好的分析。
: 关于刺激计划的必要性，我同意德国的做法：关健不是刺激(因为德国的经济体系并没有出问题)，而是减少政府开支、进行经济紧缩(很朴素的经济常识：量入为出)。这样虽然GDP暂时下来了，但是是自然的、健康的反应。你看德国现在经济很好！
: 中国的经济本来也没有问题(忽略一切不完美)，但是走了相反的路。现在真是热闹。准备金率都20%了，利率才3%；政府负债可能在50万亿以上；美国趁火打劫人民币不停升值、开始连续出现逆差；大学生失业率官方数字已经到了25%(刺激计划进入铁公鸡，反而打击了实体产业)。。。
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