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发帖数: 901 | 1 Most investors know the Federal Reserve's "easy money" policy is creating an
enormous amount of new credit and new money.
And most people know this policy has created an explosion in the prices of
gold and silver.
But most people have no idea where the bulk of the Fed's new money is
actually finding its home: in Asia. This has enormous implications for you
as an investor, which I'll show you in a moment...
According to Bill Gross, who manages the world's largest pile of fixed-
income assets at PIMCO, the Federal Reserve is going to resume large-scale
quantitative easing at the rate of $100 billion per month. News of this plan
has been leaking out for the last two months following an important speech
Bernanke gave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this summer. He said, essentially, we
needed a lot more inflation.
If the Fed does resume quantitative easing at the $100 billion-per-month
range, it would be buying the equivalent of all of the new debt the U.S.
Treasury is issuing – all of it. This represents an increase of roughly 30%
to the money supply in the first year... an extraordinary amount of new
cash.
Trade and capital flows are transferring most of the inflation the Fed is
creating to the Chinese economy. U.S. politicians continue to stimulate
consumption in the U.S., while most of the production to meet this demand
comes from China. We borrow and spend. They produce and profit. Hopefully,
you understand printing more money and buying government bonds won't change
this dynamic. It simply results in still more money being sent to China.
What will China do with the flood of capital? Lots of things. But one thing
it will certainly do is build more coal-fired power plants. Coal-fired
plants produce 80% of the electricity in China, and demand for electricity
is growing roughly 9% a year. It's hard to comprehend how fast demand for
coal is growing in China, but consider these facts...
China is now the world's second-largest consumer of electricity, after the
United States. A decade ago, China's installed generation base was only 315
gigawatts. Today, it's 900 gigawatts – and 78% of its production is still
coal-based.
Today, China consumes three times more coal than the U.S. – more than three
billion tons. But China only has about half of the U.S.'s coal reserves.
And that means it must import a lot of coal.
At current growth rates, China would exhaust its current reserves in only 16
years. Obviously that's not going to happen – more mines will be dug. But
just as obviously, it will take a long time to build the mines and lay the
railroad infrastructure required. In the meantime, China will need a lot of
coal.
Current market surveys show China will import 150 million tons of coal this
year. That's only 5% of China's total coal demand, but it represents 15% of
the total U.S. demand. Right now, almost all of this coal comes from
Australia, where China takes up about 60% of the export supply of coal.
And here's the crucial fact: China's coal imports doubled in the last year.
We know total power production in China is scheduled to double over the next
eight years. It's building a new coal-fired plant nearly every week. The
United States has built only 12 new coal-fired power plants since 1990.
Assuming China's coal imports double again (and they will), Chinese demand
will exhaust Australia's export capacity. And when China's import demand
doubles again after that (to 600 million tons per year), it will exhaust the
world's total export supply.
China's not the only problem... Don't forget about India.
India's installed power base exceeds 600 gigawatts, and demand is growing at
about the same pace as in China. India also relies on coal for most of its
power (70%). It currently burns 500 metric tons of coal a year, mostly from
domestic sources. But Vinay Kumar Singh, the CEO of India's Northern
Coalfields, says the country will need to import at least 250 million tons
of coal a year by 2020. India's imports of coal from South Africa rose 74%
last year.
It's no exaggeration to say China and India's demand for electricity is the
future of global power. Already China's coal production represents more than
twice the amount of energy produced from all of Saudi Arabia's oilfields.
What's fueling all of this demand for coal-fired power plants? Huge urban
populations in China and India. Consider these figures. In America, the baby
boomers – the 50 million Americans born in the years after World War II –
produced the demand for vast amounts of new infrastructure in America.
There are 300 million newly urban Chinese people. And 300 million newly
urban Indians. That's 600 million people moving out of the Stone Age and
into the modern world – a group 12 times bigger than the baby boomers.
While it's true these people will want to buy lots of things – from Cokes
to Buicks – the thing they need most is electricity.
Americans don't yet realize the Fed's attempts to paper over our debts come
with serious consequences. As our money loses its purchasing power, costs
will rise – especially power costs. Undoubtedly, our politicians will blame
"speculators" for the soaring price of coal. But the truth is, the paper
that will push prices higher came from the Federal Reserve, not from any
hedge fund.
Whether we realize it or not, we compete with other nations around the world
for resources. Historically, our currency – as the world's reserve
currency – has given us an enormous advantage. Coal, for example, is priced
in dollars. But we stand on the verge of losing that advantage... and the
consequences will be drastic. We will face higher prices for coal, among
other sources of energy.
To hedge yourself from this coming Fed disaster, buy coal stocks. They're
going to go much higher in the coming years.
Good investing,
Porter Stansberry & Braden Copeland | p******u
发帖数: 14642 | 2 We know total power production in China is scheduled to double over the next
eight years.
有点可怕 |
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