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发帖数: 163 | 1 大伙看看这位有没有道理。你会如何预测明天的利率呢？
by Matthew Graham
High Risk Event For Mortgage Rates Tomorrow
Dec 1 2011, 2:23PM
Much like yesterday (and the day before), Mortgage-Backed-Securities (MBS),
began the day in weaker territory and rallied in the latter part of the day.
Unlike yesterday, we started off in weak enough territory this morning
that the improvements in MBS were not enough to see a positive change in
Mortgage Rates. In fact, rates are a bit higher today, still centered on a
4.0% Best-Execution level, but with less 3.875%'s and a reintroduction to 4.
125% rates at many lenders.
Also similar to yesterday (and the day before) is the phenomenon where
Treasury yields rose while mortgage rates held steady (or more appropriately
in today's case, "rose less"). This is more of an "FYI" than anything, or
perhaps a reminder that it can happen, and just did.
Tomorrow brings one of the highest-risk events of the month: The Employment
Situation Report. Despite the dominance of European headlines over domestic
economic data, this report is a major exception and can have a noticeable
impact on mortgage rates in either direction. We tend to feel that a
negative domestic economic outlook is already "baked-in" to interest rates
to a much greater extent that recently more positive economic data has
perhaps put a strain on yields. That's simply another way of saying less
diminishing returns for well-timed floating. Even if rates do improve after
tomorrow's jobs data, it probably won't be to the same extent that rates
could rise if the data is extremely strong (strong economic data tends to
result in upward pressures on interest rates). Ongoing guidance below is
still in effect and will be as long as Best-Execution CONTINUES hovering
around 4.0%.
Today's BEST-EXECUTION Rates
•30YR FIXED - 4.0%, increasing amount of 3.875's.
•FHA/VA - 3.75%, fewer 3.875's
•15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375%-3.5%
•5 YEAR ARMS - low 3% range, huge variations from lender to lender.
Guidance:
In a fundamental sense, we're well aware of the fact that European drama
continues to help domestic bond markets. Technically, we're impressed that
mortgage rates have been this flat for this long. The "batting cage"
metaphor or the chart below it if you prefer, continue to be the best
guidance we can offer in this uncertain environment. With the ongoing
sideways movement of Best-Execution around 4%, the chances increase that the
next move will carry a bit of momentum with it (as if the current calm is
akin to "storing energy"). If it goes in a mortgage rate-friendly direction
, there's limited benefit (an eighth to a quarter of a point of improvement)
versus the damage that could result from it going the other way.
Fortunately, neither of those eventualities appear to be happening at the
moment, so it's hard to go wrong. We'll let you know the day that changes.
Batting Cage Metaphor:
(this can be applied to any endeavor where you're trying to "go out on a
high note"). Rate offerings from lenders over the past month have been
like a temperamental pitching machine in a batting cage-generally getting
the ball across the plate, but with no really juicy pitches. But recently,
we've seen some more consistently good pitches (best-ex around 4.0% instead
of 4.25%). Sure... you've seen better, but not by much (3.875% and RARELY 3
.75%). How many more will you count on before calling it a day? Personally
, I'd like to end my batting cage session with a nice hit. The more "
pitches" you wait for with rates already at a 4.0%, the greater the risk
that the next pitch will be a curve-ball. To drop the metaphor, although
rates this low CAN go slightly lower, the improvements are fairly minimal
compared to how much higher they could go. Still, if you're not in any
particular need to refinance and are operating on a longer-term perspective,
we continue to feel good about that "wall" at a 4.25% best-execution level
as a good stop-loss point for inclined floaters. Ask us to explain more
about that if it doesn't make sense.
Another way of looking at the lock/float spectrum based on the lowest MBS
coupon actively trading and being produced in the secondary mortgage market: |
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