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发帖数: 1714 | 1 At least 3 more years of housing troubles seen
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B656N20101207?
loomia_ow=t0:s0:a49:g43:r5:c0.037975:b40349862:z0
By Linda Stern
WASHINGTON | Tue Dec 7, 2010 3:25pm EST
(Reuters) - The housing market will remain depressed, with record high
foreclosure levels, rising mortgage rates and a glut of distressed
properties dampening the market for years to come, industry experts
predicted on Tuesday.
"We don't see a full market recovery until 2014," said Rick Sharga of
RealtyTrac, a foreclosure marketplace and tracking service. He said that
he expected more than 3 million homeowners to receive foreclosure
notices in 2010, with more than 1 million homes being seized by banks
before the end of the year.
Both of those numbers are records and expected to go even higher, as
$300 billion in adjustable rate loans reset and foreclosures that had
been held up by the robo-signing scandal work through the process. That
should make the first quarter of 2011 even uglier than the fourth
quarter of 2010, he said.
There have been allegations banks used so-called robo-signers to sign
hundreds of foreclosure documents a day without proper legal review.
Mortgage rates will start to rise in 2011, further dampening demand and
limiting affordability, said Pete Flint, chief executive of Trulia.com,
a real estate search and research website. "Nationally, prices will
decline between 5 percent and 7 percent, with most of the decline
occurring in the first half of next year," he said.
Interest rates on 30-year fixed rate loans will creep up to 5 percent,
and that alone will add $120 per month to the typical mortgage payment
on a $400,000 loan, Flint said in a joint news conference.
The two firms released a survey showing a marked deterioration in
consumers' views of the housing market, too. Almost half -- 48 percent -
- said they'd consider walking away from their homes and their mortgages
if they were underwater on their loans. That's up almost 20 percent from
when the same question was asked in May. "If that continues it would be
an epidemic of strategic defaults," said Flint.
Roughly 1 in 5 consumers said they expect it to be 2015 before there is
a recovery in housing, according to the survey, conducted in November by
Harris Interactive. Most respondents said they think recovery will come
in 2012 or 2013. Would-be buyers suggested they wouldn't really get
serious about purchasing a home for another two years.
Sharga sees a big glut in distressed properties hitting the market.
There are about 5 million loans that are at least 60 days overdue, he
said. In the next 12 to 15 months, another $300 billion in adjustable
rate loans will reset, and "they will default at pretty high levels."
"Even with today's low interest rates, you're looking at an average of
$1,000 or more in mortgage payments on loans that are overvalued by
about 30 percent. That is where you will see a high level of walkaways,"
Sharga predicted.
Not all markets will share equally in the troubles. Flint said he
expects to see improvements in several markets, including Raleigh-
Durham, North Carolina; Austin, Texas; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; Salt
Lake City, Utah and Omaha, Nebraska.
Homebuyers who are willing to take risks and buy distressed properties
are likely to see discounts of around 30 percent from prices on
comparable homes that are not in distress.
(Reporting by Linda Stern; Editing by Kenneth Barry) |
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