h*******y
发帖数: 864 | | T**J
发帖数: 3340 | | h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 3 San Diego is projected to be +11.8%. Amazing.
In fact, most CA places are expected to rise over 8%. Another housing bubble
coming?
【在 T**J 的大作中提到】
: 小地方，-0.6%
| z*********n
发帖数: 94654 | 4 洛杉矶地区也有8％？
bubble
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: San Diego is projected to be +11.8%. Amazing.
: In fact, most CA places are expected to rise over 8%. Another housing bubble
: coming?
| T*****m
发帖数: 3480 | | l******e
发帖数: 12192 | 6 怎么可能
他们连他们自己twx的股价都估不准
【在 T*****m 的大作中提到】
: 这个靠谱不？
| a*******t
发帖数: 891 | 7 Forecast change: June 30, 2009 – June 30, 2010 -14.7%
Forecast change: June 30, 2010 – June 30, 2011 +11.8%
about housing bubble... has the current bubble burst? haa
bubble
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: San Diego is projected to be +11.8%. Amazing.
: In fact, most CA places are expected to rise over 8%. Another housing bubble
: coming?
| f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 8 有点狠，不过权当一家之言吧，呵呵。
摘要：
LV已经跌了５４.6%，还要跌２３.9%
Phoenix已经跌了54%，还要跌２３.４%
LA已经跌了43.3%，还要跌20.2%
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Homes-About-to-get-much-cnnm-699910894.html?x=0
Homes: About to get much cheaper
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
On 11:07 am EDT, Tuesday October 20, 2009
If you thought home prices were bottoming out, you may be wrong. They're
expected to head a lot lower.
Home values are predicted to drop in 342 out of 381 markets during the next
year, according to a new forecast of
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Have fun:
: http://cgi.money.cnn.com/tools/homepricedata/index.html
| n********n
发帖数: 641 | 9 大华府跌了多少啊?
还能接着跌多少?
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: 有点狠，不过权当一家之言吧，呵呵。
: 摘要：
: LV已经跌了５４.6%，还要跌２３.9%
: Phoenix已经跌了54%，还要跌２３.４%
: LA已经跌了43.3%，还要跌20.2%
: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Homes-About-to-get-much-cnnm-699910894.html?x=0
: Homes: About to get much cheaper
: By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
: On 11:07 am EDT, Tuesday October 20, 2009
: If you thought home prices were bottoming out, you may be wrong. They're
| f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 10 (our small community can not represent 大华府)
but:
1) TWH went as high as 590K in summer 2006, now down to 430K;
2) new SFH, 850K (end of 2008) -> 790K (2 months ago) -> 730K, 1 acre land,
4000sf, good schools. we almost got into one last year, then gave up, then
got serious with another one 2 months ago, now feel lucky we didn't. frankly
, 730K is still too much, same house built in average area (20 minutes away)
only costs 450K;
3) 80-90% of listing price is very common, if not less.
(as far as
【在 n********n 的大作中提到】
: 大华府跌了多少啊?
: 还能接着跌多少?
| | | e********t
发帖数: 397 | 11 现在最大的决定因素应该是按揭利率。如果你觉得利率要显著走高，现在应该观望。否
则，应该慢慢找这买自己喜欢的房子了。 | f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 12 as for interest rate, i guess it's very sensitive now, any big change will
kill housing market right away. obama and banks can't afford any worse
situation than now.
it'll be a dead market for a looong time. houses sell slowly, prices keep
dropping (if not too much), interest rate keeps flat, still ppl are watching
...
【在 e********t 的大作中提到】
: 现在最大的决定因素应该是按揭利率。如果你觉得利率要显著走高，现在应该观望。否
: 则，应该慢慢找这买自己喜欢的房子了。
| h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 13 It really depends on the location. I think the upper-end market has still
lots of rooms to drop. 10% is normally an under-estimation. The buyer is
actually wise to buy when it is just 10% from the bottom because the
inventory is better than the bottom price. In a lot of places, I still think
that 30-40% decline is possible. So far the price decline has mainly be
concentrated in areas of subprime market, the unemployment is yet to hit the
prime market.
I track the lower-end market though (because
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: (our small community can not represent 大华府)
: but:
: 1) TWH went as high as 590K in summer 2006, now down to 430K;
: 2) new SFH, 850K (end of 2008) -> 790K (2 months ago) -> 730K, 1 acre land,
: 4000sf, good schools. we almost got into one last year, then gave up, then
: got serious with another one 2 months ago, now feel lucky we didn't. frankly
: , 730K is still too much, same house built in average area (20 minutes away)
: only costs 450K;
: 3) 80-90% of listing price is very common, if not less.
: (as far as
| f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 14 LOL, a year ago, if you told me that "In a lot of places, I still think that
30-40% decline is possible." (as in now, 2009, context), even conservative
me, or so called "house black", would think you're too pessimistic.
but since end of last year, when we got the idea to move up and started to
look around (for almost a year now), we now got more first hand local info.,
which is more than a story from some friend or newspaper.
i have to agree we may have not seen the worst yet. too easily to get
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: It really depends on the location. I think the upper-end market has still
: lots of rooms to drop. 10% is normally an under-estimation. The buyer is
: actually wise to buy when it is just 10% from the bottom because the
: inventory is better than the bottom price. In a lot of places, I still think
: that 30-40% decline is possible. So far the price decline has mainly be
: concentrated in areas of subprime market, the unemployment is yet to hit the
: prime market.
: I track the lower-end market though (because
| h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 15 As a value investor, my eyes will not roll with 30-40% decline in equity
market, I will just continue my DCA purchase strategy. I will only add more
equity exposure in a declining market. Look at the bigger picture, that is
nothing and should be factored in before one makes his/her first investment.
I calculated 30% price decline possibility before I bought my current house,
although I estimated only about 10% most-likely decline. 30% is just worse
case scenario (I'm revising that up right now,
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: LOL, a year ago, if you told me that "In a lot of places, I still think that
: 30-40% decline is possible." (as in now, 2009, context), even conservative
: me, or so called "house black", would think you're too pessimistic.
: but since end of last year, when we got the idea to move up and started to
: look around (for almost a year now), we now got more first hand local info.,
: which is more than a story from some friend or newspaper.
: i have to agree we may have not seen the worst yet. too easily to get
| i*****d
发帖数: 790 | 16 全美10-11年都升？这升幅是基于今年的价位还是09-10后的价位？ | n********n
发帖数: 641 | 17 hehe, happy to know that you are also in the Great DC area.
Am crossing my fingers and hope the price of SFH can still go down a little
bit :)
,
frankly
away)
if
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: (our small community can not represent 大华府)
: but:
: 1) TWH went as high as 590K in summer 2006, now down to 430K;
: 2) new SFH, 850K (end of 2008) -> 790K (2 months ago) -> 730K, 1 acre land,
: 4000sf, good schools. we almost got into one last year, then gave up, then
: got serious with another one 2 months ago, now feel lucky we didn't. frankly
: , 730K is still too much, same house built in average area (20 minutes away)
: only costs 450K;
: 3) 80-90% of listing price is very common, if not less.
: (as far as
| y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 18 有些东西是显而易见的，但是只是不知道什么时候发生而已，比如三四年前的房价，所
有头脑清醒人都知道房子over-value乐，和租金工资不成比例，上涨总有一天会crash
。人们不知道的只是不知道什么时候，什么方式crash。
现在也一样，所有头脑清醒人都知道美国的债务不可持续，迟早美元要crash，利率要
飙升，而且是不受obama and banks掌控的crash。现在的疑问是人们不知道什么
时候，什么方式crash。
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: as for interest rate, i guess it's very sensitive now, any big change will
: kill housing market right away. obama and banks can't afford any worse
: situation than now.
: it'll be a dead market for a looong time. houses sell slowly, prices keep
: dropping (if not too much), interest rate keeps flat, still ppl are watching
: ...
| H****3
发帖数: 618 | 19 未来这两年，形势扑朔迷离，还是现金为王靠得住。 | h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 20
Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields
is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long. Holders of
these instruments, of course, have felt increasingly comfortable – in fact,
almost smug – in following this policy as financial turmoil has mounted.
They regard their judgment confirmed when they hear commentators proclaim “
cash is king,” even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing
and will surely find its purchasing power eroded o
【在 H****3 的大作中提到】
: 未来这两年，形势扑朔迷离，还是现金为王靠得住。
| | | L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 21
some how i have a opposite view, Cash, i mean US Dollar, will be the worst
investment for the next 2 yrs.
【在 H****3 的大作中提到】
: 未来这两年，形势扑朔迷离，还是现金为王靠得住。
| t*********z
发帖数: 64 | 22 我觉得这CNN走势预测还是偏悲观了些。个人意见。 | s*i
发帖数: 1402 | 23 把“现”字去掉就差不多
【在 H****3 的大作中提到】
: 未来这两年，形势扑朔迷离，还是现金为王靠得住。
| R*y
发帖数: 994 | | a*******t
发帖数: 891 | 25 gold is at $1k, already too high i think
【在 s*i 的大作中提到】
: 把“现”字去掉就差不多
| l*****9
发帖数: 1058 | 26 好文章。我要继续做房黑。几个offer都被拒了，今年的8000K是拿不到了。LA已经跌了
43.3%，还要
跌20.2%！！！
699910894.html?x=0
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: 有点狠，不过权当一家之言吧，呵呵。
: 摘要：
: LV已经跌了５４.6%，还要跌２３.9%
: Phoenix已经跌了54%，还要跌２３.４%
: LA已经跌了43.3%，还要跌20.2%
: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Homes-About-to-get-much-cnnm-699910894.html?x=0
: Homes: About to get much cheaper
: By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
: On 11:07 am EDT, Tuesday October 20, 2009
: If you thought home prices were bottoming out, you may be wrong. They're
| w******y
发帖数: 8040 | 27 股市这么牛逼
房事还能跌？ 据说要狂涨了
【在 l*****9 的大作中提到】
: 好文章。我要继续做房黑。几个offer都被拒了，今年的8000K是拿不到了。LA已经跌了
: 43.3%，还要
: 跌20.2%！！！
:
: 699910894.html?x=0
|
|
