o*******p
发帖数: 722 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 NextGeneration 讨论区 】
发信人: oldoldcop (大乖乖), 信区: NextGeneration
标 题: 计算表明那个宝宝被abuse 的概率为87.45%
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 2 18:20:34 2011, 美东)
According to http://pediatrics.about.com/od/childabuse/a/05_abuse_stats.htm
prior probability for P(abuse) = 1/58
therefore, P(noabuse) = 57/58
According to http://www.mitbbs.com/article/NextGeneration/34304149_0.html
P(hemorrhage|abuse) = 0.278
P(hemorrhage|noabuse) = 0.0007
Therefore, we have
P(abuse|hemorrhage) = P(abuse)*P(hemorrhage|abuse)/P(hemorrhage)
= (1/58)*0.278/((1/58)*0.278+(1-1/58)*0.0007) = 0.8745 | b*****a
发帖数: 14583 | 2 远没到 beyond reasonable doubt 的程度阿 |
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