g********e
发帖数: 1142 | 1 当然我们都在往里面存钱，但是不能指望退休就它了。
cash is trash。401K抛去3%的长期通胀因素，
其实只有另外3%的平均增长率，远远小于一般投资回报，和cash 差不多了。
当然，它安全。 |
b*******c
发帖数: 20683 | 2 看不懂，不知道在说啥。啥是“一般投资”？401K也是你自己投资，顶多就是plan有点
限制罢了。“一般投资”，taxable account的话，同一个人，N年后是否一定比401K收
益好，还很难说吧。
【在 g********e 的大作中提到】
: 当然我们都在往里面存钱，但是不能指望退休就它了。
: cash is trash。401K抛去3%的长期通胀因素，
: 其实只有另外3%的平均增长率，远远小于一般投资回报，和cash 差不多了。
: 当然，它安全。
|
r**********g
发帖数: 22734 | |
t********t
发帖数: 5415 | 4 连401k是vehicle不是asset class这个问题都想不明白的话... |
g********e
发帖数: 1142 | 5 sigh, simple ah
401K is almost a government plan.
The government can not even take care of itself,
how can we rely on it to take care of us when we are old?
Yeah, US government is most powerful government on earth, but it's still
resolving its problems by printing money bills, and moreover, the speed
print dollar bills is accelerating, even faster than inflation.
if you have 4 million in retirement account, and with a 6% annual return,
you monthly retirement income is about $26K/month. With that money, if you
retire today with that income, it might be good living (assuming mortgage
paid off). If you target retirement with that kind of 401K balance 30 years
later, it will be far from enough.
US government might be as weak as an EU country government at that time. 26K
monthly income could be equivalent to 4K/month today.
The generation of Baby Boomers is great example. They are the first
generation entering a Fully industrial society and fully rely on 401K for
retirement.
Now everyday around 7K baby boomers are retiring, and most of them don't
have enough 401K fund for that. Media already say they are "poorer than
their parents at age of 65".
The government is set up by the riches, not fully trustable.... |
g********e
发帖数: 1142 | 6 Increasing Tax is another thing to considerate. The government filled in
many loopholes of the employees, contractors, specialists in the past 60
years.
In the tax reform in 80s, doctors, lawyers as independent specialists
started paying significantly more tax which were not collected before.
People living on W2s are getting taxed more and more for sure (as you can
feel). Why? The government couldn't take care of itself...., and this game
will continue this way again and again...
Also, remmeber, every 10 years dollars is getting cheaper by half. |
b*******c
发帖数: 20683 | 7 LZ图样图森破！
【在 g********e 的大作中提到】
: sigh, simple ah
: 401K is almost a government plan.
: The government can not even take care of itself,
: how can we rely on it to take care of us when we are old?
: Yeah, US government is most powerful government on earth, but it's still
: resolving its problems by printing money bills, and moreover, the speed
: print dollar bills is accelerating, even faster than inflation.
: if you have 4 million in retirement account, and with a 6% annual return,
: you monthly retirement income is about $26K/month. With that money, if you
: retire today with that income, it might be good living (assuming mortgage
|
g********e
发帖数: 1142 | 8
don't say that, man.
make a point so that I can improve my view. ..
you xiang fa, bu neng cang zhe ye zhe, tai ji zei le.
【在 b*******c 的大作中提到】
: LZ图样图森破！
|
t********t
发帖数: 5415 | 9 LZ不是挖坑的话需要补一下基础知识了
401k买什么也是自己选的（在plan限制的基础上），跟安全没有半点关系，都是看人。
另外“一般投资回报”就不用担心3%的长期通胀了？而且什么样的“一般投资”能做到
远大于6%？ |
b*******c
发帖数: 20683 | 10 主要是觉得你和隔壁楼里那个鄙视roth contribution的cpa有一比，俺这样的看客都不
知道咋评论了，很无力的赶脚，有木有。当然，也许是我太小白，没达到你们那种指点
江山的地步，嘿嘿。
【在 g********e 的大作中提到】
:
: don't say that, man.
: make a point so that I can improve my view. ..
: you xiang fa, bu neng cang zhe ye zhe, tai ji zei le.
|
|
|
t********t
发帖数: 5415 | 11 同感
话说investment vehicle和asset class都分不清的人真的有那么多？
【在 b*******c 的大作中提到】
: 主要是觉得你和隔壁楼里那个鄙视roth contribution的cpa有一比，俺这样的看客都不
: 知道咋评论了，很无力的赶脚，有木有。当然，也许是我太小白，没达到你们那种指点
: 江山的地步，嘿嘿。
|
g********e
发帖数: 1142 | 12 yeah, it is vehicle, but a very special vehicle, which carries only a
limited set of funds... |
b*******c
发帖数: 20683 | 13 大家又不是一个公司的，你的401K里的fund和我的就不一样，这有啥好比的？有的plan
的fund很不错，另外，401K里的fund经常是有公司谈下来的比外头更低的expense
ratio。
【在 g********e 的大作中提到】
: yeah, it is vehicle, but a very special vehicle, which carries only a
: limited set of funds...
|
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 14 恩 说白了 就是投资民科。
【在 b*******c 的大作中提到】
: 主要是觉得你和隔壁楼里那个鄙视roth contribution的cpa有一比，俺这样的看客都不
: 知道咋评论了，很无力的赶脚，有木有。当然，也许是我太小白，没达到你们那种指点
: 江山的地步，嘿嘿。
|
g********e
发帖数: 1142 | 15
....
that's not quite a constructive comment...
401K can only be a good supplement, you can not rely on it for retirement.
That's my point....
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: 恩 说白了 就是投资民科。
|
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 16 No one says we can count on 401k 100%. It's just common sense, just like no
one can count on social security checks 100%.
【在 g********e 的大作中提到】
:
: ....
: that's not quite a constructive comment...
: 401K can only be a good supplement, you can not rely on it for retirement.
: That's my point....
|
g********e
发帖数: 1142 | 17
no
"
当然我们都在往里面存钱，但是不能指望退休就它了。
cash is trash。401K抛去3%的长期通胀因素，
其实只有另外3%的平均增长率，远远小于一般投资回报，和cash 差不多了。
当然，它安全。
"
......
so what's the problem?
where are the shaming words (Min2 Ke1) from?
that's not good manner to initialize conversations....
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: No one says we can count on 401k 100%. It's just common sense, just like no
: one can count on social security checks 100%.
|
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 18 ok. what do you mean by " 401K是不足以相信的的"?
what's '足以相信的'?
where did you get "只有另外3%的平均增长率，远远小于一般投资回报"?
【在 g********e 的大作中提到】
:
: no
: "
: 当然我们都在往里面存钱，但是不能指望退休就它了。
: cash is trash。401K抛去3%的长期通胀因素，
: 其实只有另外3%的平均增长率，远远小于一般投资回报，和cash 差不多了。
: 当然，它安全。
: "
: ......
: so what's the problem?
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 19 401K只是个tax shelter 而已，你不能指望它解决所有的问题。你如果是买什么什么跌
的，钱放在什么帐户都没太大区别，亏损抵税也只是最多每年三千不是？
至少它能让你：
1）现在减税，
2）收益税也能defer到distribute的时候，让你能compound your gain/loss/whatever
,
3）配合roth 和其它的帐户，实现tax diversification
好的公司plan还有：
4) 公司match （risk-free),
5) extremely low-cost funds (think of your employee's bargain power)
6）self-direct brokerage, 你可以买卖plan之外的基金和个股
每个公司的plan都不太一样，所以不要因为你不幸遇到crappy plan就认定这是政府的
阴谋。与其说是政府阴谋，不如说是政府甩包袱。谁知道SS能支撑到什么时候，给你点
tax benefit让你自谋出路而已。 |
g********e
发帖数: 1142 | 20
just search for "average annual return on 401k over 30 years", plenty of
articles implying that number.
I contribute my 401K to upper limit just because of the good match from
employer which I think is free money I must acquire. Also, the money is
safely well growing while sleeping. And I can loan out for emergencies or
bridging.
for retirement? no..., hardly trust it for that.
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: ok. what do you mean by " 401K是不足以相信的的"?
: what's '足以相信的'?
: where did you get "只有另外3%的平均增长率，远远小于一般投资回报"?
|
|
|
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 21 i don't really agree with your 3% projection. if you have low fee index
funds in your 401k, the projected gain should be 6-10% for long term.
again your statement "不足以相信的" is just confusing at best. no one says
we can rely 100% on 401k for retirement. what's the point to post something
we all know for fact?
【在 g********e 的大作中提到】
:
: just search for "average annual return on 401k over 30 years", plenty of
: articles implying that number.
: I contribute my 401K to upper limit just because of the good match from
: employer which I think is free money I must acquire. Also, the money is
: safely well growing while sleeping. And I can loan out for emergencies or
: bridging.
: for retirement? no..., hardly trust it for that.
|
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 22 确实有一个report 说average investor 的长期return 非常糟糕 远低于市场。但是那
是因为average investor 的irrational behavior. 比如常见的 market timing , buy
high sell low.. 这个跟401k 本身没太大关系。如果长期buy and hold 一个
diversified balanced portfolio. 长期return在 6-7%应该是有把握的 当然这是
nominal number |
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 23 re. other reasons are 401k funds used to have higher expense ratios, and low
expense index funds were not as common as today.
buy
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: 确实有一个report 说average investor 的长期return 非常糟糕 远低于市场。但是那
: 是因为average investor 的irrational behavior. 比如常见的 market timing , buy
: high sell low.. 这个跟401k 本身没太大关系。如果长期buy and hold 一个
: diversified balanced portfolio. 长期return在 6-7%应该是有把握的 当然这是
: nominal number
|
r**********g
发帖数: 22734 | 24 我软的401k直接给brokage link, 可以直接炒股，买任意基金，甚至可以用margin。你
还要怎样？见过好plan么？
【在 g********e 的大作中提到】
: yeah, it is vehicle, but a very special vehicle, which carries only a
: limited set of funds...
|
D********2
发帖数: 2153 | 25 cash is trash, 看到这个就可以呵呵了
【在 g********e 的大作中提到】
: 当然我们都在往里面存钱，但是不能指望退休就它了。
: cash is trash。401K抛去3%的长期通胀因素，
: 其实只有另外3%的平均增长率，远远小于一般投资回报，和cash 差不多了。
: 当然，它安全。
|
m*********t
发帖数: 1250 | 26 不能一概而论误导菜鸟：
1. 401K只是tax sheltered account，可以把portfolio里面tax inefficient的fund放
到401K。
2. 401K不少公司有match，知道的几家公司如果max 401K，company match部分就超过3
0%。
3. 401K有一些公司提供brokerage link，比如Fidelity，你可以在401K里面选择购买任
何fund。而且很多大公司本身提供的fund就非常好，比如0.02% ER的S&P500 index fun
d。
【在 g********e 的大作中提到】
: 当然我们都在往里面存钱，但是不能指望退休就它了。
: cash is trash。401K抛去3%的长期通胀因素，
: 其实只有另外3%的平均增长率，远远小于一般投资回报，和cash 差不多了。
: 当然，它安全。
|
i**********o
发帖数: 5993 | |
l*******r
发帖数: 328 | 28 if you don't believe 401k, don't invest. what's funny is that lz invests max
amount. what a contradiction. lol. |
g********e
发帖数: 1142 | 29
你行你上啊，不行别BB
“you can you up. no can no BB”
【在 i**********o 的大作中提到】
: LZ这英文有真够可以的。
: 大家真nice呀。
|
