h******b 发帖数: 6055 | 1 我的目标是打败HYG bond etf,同时提供一个和股票债卷不直接挂钩的投资。
HYG三年回报5.88%,五年回报7.16%。任何时候都可以liquidate,红利税率低一些,每
年0.5%的fee。
Lending Club基本上买了就没法出手了,最少一年能8%以上才有价值。
https://www.nsrplatform.com,超级牛波伊的测试工具有木有。看上去很诱人,c,d
,e扣掉default rate似乎都能搞到10%。 有用过的人说说心得。
现在好多对冲基金搞这个,当然他们背测用的工具更强悍。可以optimize各种模块。 |
r**m 发帖数: 1825 | 2 可以卖,他们 有个trading platform : foliofn
【在 h******b 的大作中提到】 : 我的目标是打败HYG bond etf,同时提供一个和股票债卷不直接挂钩的投资。 : HYG三年回报5.88%,五年回报7.16%。任何时候都可以liquidate,红利税率低一些,每 : 年0.5%的fee。 : Lending Club基本上买了就没法出手了,最少一年能8%以上才有价值。 : https://www.nsrplatform.com,超级牛波伊的测试工具有木有。看上去很诱人,c,d : ,e扣掉default rate似乎都能搞到10%。 有用过的人说说心得。 : 现在好多对冲基金搞这个,当然他们背测用的工具更强悍。可以optimize各种模块。
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M********r 发帖数: 278 | 3 Here is a relative "long term" (2 yr) performance comparison btw LC and
Prospers from mymoneyblog.com. Keep in mind that the blogger is a very
savvy investor if you care to follow him and read his blog. Bottom line is
that he has managed to achieve ~5.5% annually. If I were to choose btw HYG
and P2P, I would definitely choose HYG.
http://www.mymoneyblog.com/prosper-lendingclub-2-year-update.ht |
g*****g 发帖数: 34805 | 4 No, this guy didn't do automatic re-investment and he has lots of cash idle
at all time. He's having more than 3K out of 5K in cash right now. Hardly a
good example.
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】 : Here is a relative "long term" (2 yr) performance comparison btw LC and : Prospers from mymoneyblog.com. Keep in mind that the blogger is a very : savvy investor if you care to follow him and read his blog. Bottom line is : that he has managed to achieve ~5.5% annually. If I were to choose btw HYG : and P2P, I would definitely choose HYG. : http://www.mymoneyblog.com/prosper-lendingclub-2-year-update.ht
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h******b 发帖数: 6055 | 5 这个不靠谱吧。 基本上任何时候要一星期出坑,都损失惨重吧。
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】 : 可以卖,他们 有个trading platform : foliofn
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M********r 发帖数: 278 | 6 You are right. He stopped reinvesting one yr ago. I did not catch that. My
bad.
As play money, P2P could be fun. But simply as a way to achieve higher
yields, P2P is not getting my money because of unfavorable (1) credit risk
(2) liquidity.
idle
a
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】 : No, this guy didn't do automatic re-investment and he has lots of cash idle : at all time. He's having more than 3K out of 5K in cash right now. Hardly a : good example.
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h******b 发帖数: 6055 | 7 请问fixed income这块有什么其他选择。
像板上推荐的Vanguard Total Bond ETF最近三年一共才8%, 每年2.66%基本上是废物。
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】 : You are right. He stopped reinvesting one yr ago. I did not catch that. My : bad. : As play money, P2P could be fun. But simply as a way to achieve higher : yields, P2P is not getting my money because of unfavorable (1) credit risk : (2) liquidity. : : idle : a
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M********r 发帖数: 278 | 8 as a trade? i don't know. as a component in a long term portfolio, any
diversified high quality bond etf or mutual fund is fine.
物。
【在 h******b 的大作中提到】 : 请问fixed income这块有什么其他选择。 : 像板上推荐的Vanguard Total Bond ETF最近三年一共才8%, 每年2.66%基本上是废物。
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s********z 发帖数: 5411 | |
r****m 发帖数: 1204 | 10
物。
当equities drop 30% 的时候, 废物就会变成宝了。
各个asset有各个asset的使命。
【在 h******b 的大作中提到】 : 请问fixed income这块有什么其他选择。 : 像板上推荐的Vanguard Total Bond ETF最近三年一共才8%, 每年2.66%基本上是废物。
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g*****g 发帖数: 34805 | 11 I am putting all IRA in it. If long term return is 7%, it's already a good
investment. Consider the downside risk is so much lower than stock.
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】 : You are right. He stopped reinvesting one yr ago. I did not catch that. My : bad. : As play money, P2P could be fun. But simply as a way to achieve higher : yields, P2P is not getting my money because of unfavorable (1) credit risk : (2) liquidity. : : idle : a
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g*****g 发帖数: 34805 | 12 I don't get why HYG is comparable. Didn't HYG have a huge drop just like
every stock in 2009?
If you are looking for 7% annual return for last 5 years, any major index
ETF has better return.
Truth is, HYG hasn't even recovered to pre-2009 level. What a joke!
The point of lending club is the downside risk is well contained.
d
【在 h******b 的大作中提到】 : 我的目标是打败HYG bond etf,同时提供一个和股票债卷不直接挂钩的投资。 : HYG三年回报5.88%,五年回报7.16%。任何时候都可以liquidate,红利税率低一些,每 : 年0.5%的fee。 : Lending Club基本上买了就没法出手了,最少一年能8%以上才有价值。 : https://www.nsrplatform.com,超级牛波伊的测试工具有木有。看上去很诱人,c,d : ,e扣掉default rate似乎都能搞到10%。 有用过的人说说心得。 : 现在好多对冲基金搞这个,当然他们背测用的工具更强悍。可以optimize各种模块。
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M********r 发帖数: 278 | 13 i feel much comfortable with a plain vanilla 60/40 portfolio that will give
me 6-7% return. why are you so sure its downward risk is much lower than
stocks? keep us posted. |
g*****g 发帖数: 34805 | 14 You are gonna get 5-10 % return every year. Default rate may shoot high if
economy is really bad but negative return is unlikely. For stock, if you
retire at 2009 and you need the money you don't have much choice. A steady
return is certainly a big advantage.
give
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】 : i feel much comfortable with a plain vanilla 60/40 portfolio that will give : me 6-7% return. why are you so sure its downward risk is much lower than : stocks? keep us posted.
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w***n 发帖数: 1519 | 15 I might be wrong, but my gut feeling says that you might be underestimating
the risks of lendingclub notes. I am not convinced there is any investment
that has equity-like return and downside risk comparable to or less than
bonds.
I do have a small amount of money invested in those notes (for a little less
than a year). I treat it like illiquid, junk bonds. In a zero-interest rate
environment, there aren't really good options for steady income.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】 : You are gonna get 5-10 % return every year. Default rate may shoot high if : economy is really bad but negative return is unlikely. For stock, if you : retire at 2009 and you need the money you don't have much choice. A steady : return is certainly a big advantage. : : give
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S**C 发帖数: 2964 | 16 I fail to see the credit risk of lendingclub and alike can be lower than
junk bonds.
There may be some investment that has equity-like return and downside risk
comparable to bond, such as privately managed woods. Not like forestry
companies which have to cut the trees regardless to meet their obligations,
when lumber price is low, these privately managed woods can stay out and let
trees grow (thus the value of their holdings grows). But it certainly not
for us ordinary investors.
underestimating
less
rate
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】 : I might be wrong, but my gut feeling says that you might be underestimating : the risks of lendingclub notes. I am not convinced there is any investment : that has equity-like return and downside risk comparable to or less than : bonds. : I do have a small amount of money invested in those notes (for a little less : than a year). I treat it like illiquid, junk bonds. In a zero-interest rate : environment, there aren't really good options for steady income.
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n****i 发帖数: 1772 | 17 你在比较信用卡债务和垃圾证劵。对于一般投资者来说,HYG/JNK是一个选择。问题是垃
圾债卷市场流通性相对小,HYG/JNK的盘子都比较大了,不好做。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】 : I don't get why HYG is comparable. Didn't HYG have a huge drop just like : every stock in 2009? : If you are looking for 7% annual return for last 5 years, any major index : ETF has better return. : Truth is, HYG hasn't even recovered to pre-2009 level. What a joke! : The point of lending club is the downside risk is well contained. : : d
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w***n 发帖数: 1519 | 18 Good to know. It's interesting.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】 : I fail to see the credit risk of lendingclub and alike can be lower than : junk bonds. : There may be some investment that has equity-like return and downside risk : comparable to bond, such as privately managed woods. Not like forestry : companies which have to cut the trees regardless to meet their obligations, : when lumber price is low, these privately managed woods can stay out and let : trees grow (thus the value of their holdings grows). But it certainly not : for us ordinary investors. : : underestimating
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m*********t 发帖数: 1250 | 19 I don't think this blogger is a savvy invester at least in P2P and his concl
usions are misleading. Due to the nature of P2P, you have to re-invest and a
utomate your loan selection criteria to get a decent return. I think it is n
ot hard to beat ~5.5% for a normal investor by spending just one day to lear
n all the tricks from http://www.lendacademy.com/ .
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】 : Here is a relative "long term" (2 yr) performance comparison btw LC and : Prospers from mymoneyblog.com. Keep in mind that the blogger is a very : savvy investor if you care to follow him and read his blog. Bottom line is : that he has managed to achieve ~5.5% annually. If I were to choose btw HYG : and P2P, I would definitely choose HYG. : http://www.mymoneyblog.com/prosper-lendingclub-2-year-update.ht
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g*****g 发帖数: 34805 | 20 我老唯结果论,p2p是还没经过熊市没错,但我认为小额贷款跟就业率比股市相关度高
。employment/population ratio一直在低位。
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
换个角度看,p2p的利率低于信用卡,所以有足够存在的空间。p2p的卖点在于绕过了机
构,LC只是收取固定的手续费,并不承担风险。金融机构在熊市中的风险在于Leverage
,一块钱借十遍,这个在p2p上并不发生,所以没有解构性风险。
关于熊市对P2P的估计可以看看这个。
http://www.lendingmemo.com/lending-club-prosper-default-rates/
【在 n****i 的大作中提到】 : 你在比较信用卡债务和垃圾证劵。对于一般投资者来说,HYG/JNK是一个选择。问题是垃 : 圾债卷市场流通性相对小,HYG/JNK的盘子都比较大了,不好做。
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g*****g 发帖数: 34805 | 21 对于风险而言,corporate bond至少一个公司要投5000,而LC只要25,这是最简单的
diversify的差别,当然风险小。 |
g*****g 发帖数: 34805 | 22 找到了这张图,在2000年的大熊市里,consumer default rate 也不过比牛市高2%。所
以如果有5%的return,熊市让你再减2%也还3%是正的。风险怎么不比Corporate bond低
?空口胡说最没用了,有反对意见欢迎拿出证据。 |
g*****g 发帖数: 34805 | 23 还有我关于liquidity的看法。我觉得这个东西用IRA是最好的,几十年不用拿出来。当
P2P越做越大,liquidity也会越来越好。 |
n****i 发帖数: 1772 | 24 2000年是IT泡沫,对信用卡负债冲击不大。07年冲击更大。原始数据在这里:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/
09年,10年到了高峰,delinq到了7%, charge-off到了10%.commercial的delinq更高,
charge-off比较低。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】 : 还有我关于liquidity的看法。我觉得这个东西用IRA是最好的,几十年不用拿出来。当 : P2P越做越大,liquidity也会越来越好。
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h******b 发帖数: 6055 | 25 HYG是靠红利吃饭的,每月分红,每年5%红利。所以不能单纯比较价格。如果从07年
hold到现在实际回报好像是50%到60%。
有401K还需要IRA吗?
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】 : I don't get why HYG is comparable. Didn't HYG have a huge drop just like : every stock in 2009? : If you are looking for 7% annual return for last 5 years, any major index : ETF has better return. : Truth is, HYG hasn't even recovered to pre-2009 level. What a joke! : The point of lending club is the downside risk is well contained. : : d
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h******b 发帖数: 6055 | 26 就算这样也是10%的本金。利息差不多10%最坏也就是一年打平而已。跟08股市直接腰斩
真的不可同日而语。
而且就算default rate高也不是说那个note彻底见外婆的,第一个月就default的比较
不多,你本金利息一般来说是已经收回来一部分了。
我甚至觉得c/d/e级别的lending club投资长跑比股市回报高风险小。缺点是liquidity
。 还有现在对冲基金都进入了,个人哪怕是自动投资如果模块定的稍微specific一点
就僧多粥少了吧。
当然等到二十年后才能有结果。
【在 n****i 的大作中提到】 : 2000年是IT泡沫,对信用卡负债冲击不大。07年冲击更大。原始数据在这里: : http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/ : 09年,10年到了高峰,delinq到了7%, charge-off到了10%.commercial的delinq更高, : charge-off比较低。
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h******b 发帖数: 6055 | 27 简单来说就是搞c/d/e这些信誉低的。
就好像high yield bond etf肯定长跑胜过普通bond etf一样。 除了熊市那一年。
concl
a
n
lear
【在 m*********t 的大作中提到】 : I don't think this blogger is a savvy invester at least in P2P and his concl : usions are misleading. Due to the nature of P2P, you have to re-invest and a : utomate your loan selection criteria to get a decent return. I think it is n : ot hard to beat ~5.5% for a normal investor by spending just one day to lear : n all the tricks from http://www.lendacademy.com/ .
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g*****g 发帖数: 34805 | 28 09年之前LC发的note数量很少,模型也还在调,从这个图看,也不过就是跟这个图相当
,长线defeault的平均期望在5%左右。这可是13%的利率,扣掉5%的default, 1%的手续
费,仍然有7%的期望值。
所以这就是我说的有7%的期望值,熊市仍然能保本。
【在 n****i 的大作中提到】 : 2000年是IT泡沫,对信用卡负债冲击不大。07年冲击更大。原始数据在这里: : http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/ : 09年,10年到了高峰,delinq到了7%, charge-off到了10%.commercial的delinq更高, : charge-off比较低。
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g*****g 发帖数: 34805 | 29 Liquidity是个问题,所以我只做IRA,反正退休之前没打算拿出来。另外平台大了之后
,liquidity会变好。
liquidity
【在 h******b 的大作中提到】 : 就算这样也是10%的本金。利息差不多10%最坏也就是一年打平而已。跟08股市直接腰斩 : 真的不可同日而语。 : 而且就算default rate高也不是说那个note彻底见外婆的,第一个月就default的比较 : 不多,你本金利息一般来说是已经收回来一部分了。 : 我甚至觉得c/d/e级别的lending club投资长跑比股市回报高风险小。缺点是liquidity : 。 还有现在对冲基金都进入了,个人哪怕是自动投资如果模块定的稍微specific一点 : 就僧多粥少了吧。 : 当然等到二十年后才能有结果。
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