S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 1 It appears the market is fully priced in QE taper starting early next year.
The catalyst now could be economy turns out to be not as good as expected.
The danger could be Fed tightening right into the teeth of a recession.
I feel myself as a curious bear wandering in the forest, and feel good about
it. | m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 2 it is hard to understand what you want to say.
You mean FED believe that economy is quite robust so let taper Jan or March
2014. While tapering or after tapering, FED finds out that, kabo!,the
economy is actually in the shit land. With help of tapering, the economy
officially in the recession zone.
If my understanding is right, what do you mean that the market is fully
priced in the QE taper early next year? Do you mean that bond market and
stock market will not move at all when FED announces tapering starting in
Jan 2014 at the next Fed meeting. But your prediction of recession will move
market at least 20% in the downward direction, which is contrary to your
claim that tapering is priced in.
My hunch is that this will be very bad for stock market. With no new cash
moving out of from bonds to stock market, stock market will be down and down
big (>10%). Bond market will be down too because there are not enough
buyers to replace $85 billions FED prints each month. | S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 3 The Fed seems makes it awfully clear the tapering is coming yet the market
barely budge, based on that I think the market seems fully priced in the
upcoming QE taper, and as such, itself won't set off market correction, but
I am not convinced that economy is as strong as people would like to believe
, and after tapering, we may wake up and find growth decelerated
considerably. The latest GDP growth data in my view benefits a lot from
inventory build up.
I think the market FINALLY realizes tapering means the Fed will buy $60-70B
paper per month, that's a lot of paper!
March
move
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: it is hard to understand what you want to say.
: You mean FED believe that economy is quite robust so let taper Jan or March
: 2014. While tapering or after tapering, FED finds out that, kabo!,the
: economy is actually in the shit land. With help of tapering, the economy
: officially in the recession zone.
: If my understanding is right, what do you mean that the market is fully
: priced in the QE taper early next year? Do you mean that bond market and
: stock market will not move at all when FED announces tapering starting in
: Jan 2014 at the next Fed meeting. But your prediction of recession will move
: market at least 20% in the downward direction, which is contrary to your
| l******g
发帖数: 6771 | 4 still too early to call
but
believe
70B
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: The Fed seems makes it awfully clear the tapering is coming yet the market
: barely budge, based on that I think the market seems fully priced in the
: upcoming QE taper, and as such, itself won't set off market correction, but
: I am not convinced that economy is as strong as people would like to believe
: , and after tapering, we may wake up and find growth decelerated
: considerably. The latest GDP growth data in my view benefits a lot from
: inventory build up.
: I think the market FINALLY realizes tapering means the Fed will buy $60-70B
: paper per month, that's a lot of paper!
:
| m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 5 I saw the chart for stock market movement in previous QEs. The end of QE was
always correlated with stock market correction of 10% or more. While it is
not sufficient to predict the future, it seems to me that the QE effect was
not fully priced in in the past. It will be probably so this time. The
correction of stock market is more associated with the net money flow into
the market than an indicator of economy. It is clear that the recent market
improvement is caused by expansion of PE ratio. It means that people are
willing to pay more money for the same amount of earning. |
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