K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 1 My simple theory when housing market is gonna bottom:
2016 (possibly earlier).
Proof:
1) Many people got foreclosed.
2) Therefore, their credit score is doomed.
3) Therefore, they can't get a loan in 7 years. (Maybe 10 years?)
4) Therefore, they won't buy another house in 7 years.
5) Therefore, housing demand will be low until 2016. -- that is,
if the credit report rules don't change.
Makes sense? @_@ | W***i
发帖数: 833 | 2 如果forclosed guy是推动房市主力的话。。。我赞同
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: My simple theory when housing market is gonna bottom:
: 2016 (possibly earlier).
: Proof:
: 1) Many people got foreclosed.
: 2) Therefore, their credit score is doomed.
: 3) Therefore, they can't get a loan in 7 years. (Maybe 10 years?)
: 4) Therefore, they won't buy another house in 7 years.
: 5) Therefore, housing demand will be low until 2016. -- that is,
: if the credit report rules don't change.
: Makes sense? @_@
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 3 What's the foreclosure rate now?
【在 W***i 的大作中提到】
: 如果forclosed guy是推动房市主力的话。。。我赞同
| c****o
发帖数: 32446 | | h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 5 Strongly disagree.
These foreclused house owners are called Fxxxxx Buyer for a reason. They are
the reckless ones who always buy on the top and sell at the bottom. If your
theory holds, then they will be able to buy at the bottom next time around.
It's not gonna happen. Next time around, they will still only buy when the
housing market starts to peak...and they see an opportunity to make house
ATM draws again.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: My simple theory when housing market is gonna bottom:
: 2016 (possibly earlier).
: Proof:
: 1) Many people got foreclosed.
: 2) Therefore, their credit score is doomed.
: 3) Therefore, they can't get a loan in 7 years. (Maybe 10 years?)
: 4) Therefore, they won't buy another house in 7 years.
: 5) Therefore, housing demand will be low until 2016. -- that is,
: if the credit report rules don't change.
: Makes sense? @_@
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